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Black Dog

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Posts posted by Black Dog


  1. 21 hours ago, SteveFord said:

    We had 923 of us here in PA kick the bucket yesterday from this virus.

    Being bored, I checked to see what the normal average death rate here is and the last year that figures were published was 2017.

    In 2017 we averaged 371 deaths per day from accidentally dropping plugged in toasters into the bath tub to stepping in front of giant corn threshers to being eaten by pterodactyls.  

    Quite the jump.

     

    Where did you see that number?  I've checked a bunch of different sites and I can't find that.  The data below comes from the State's website.

    2jBMxIVl.png

    https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Death-Data.aspx


  2. As far as I know, the Federal Government has not issued any stay at home order or closure of any specific sectors of the economy.  Only social distancing recommendations and some international travel restrictions.  The States have issued various forms of stay at home orders and business shut downs.  Many of those have been and are being challenged and found to be unconstitutional.  And, yes, we do have a right to disobey unconstitutional orders.  It's called civil disobedience.


  3. 8 minutes ago, 'Scales said:

    Apparently in all states of Australia...(drumroll) pubs are open! - to limited extent in most areas. According to mainstream media this is the most critical news for the nation today. 😐

    ...so I guess its over? 

     

    I am really curious to see what will happen in the Southern Hemisphere.  The virus came to you in your summer.  As you go into the Flu season it's going to be very interesting.  It seems that there have been very few cases in Australia.  If not very many people have had it, then there will be no herd immunity and I would suspect that it should come back fairly significantly.  OTOH, if there have been a lot of asymptomatic or mild infections then maybe not.   For everyone's sake I hope that's the case.   We'll find out soon enough. 


  4. I was a 15 year old kid in Miami, Fl at the time.  I remember it but honestly at that time I didn't really care that much about it.  More recently, I have watched some documentaries about it and was blown away by the utter devastation it caused.  The images are just incredible and heartbreaking.   Now I live not very far away from it and I can see it from some of spots we hike to.


  5. 11 hours ago, Sgt. Pepper said:

    Damn. I guess you can get it twice.

     

    The same thing happened in S. Korea.  They were testing positive from virus fragments.  False positive tests.  It depends what type of test you are using.  The most accurate is a PCR test.  If they are on a ship it's probably a antigen test which tests for viral "pieces".  That's most likely what happened. 

    Don't forget that all these tests have their limitations and all of them have been thrown together very quickly without as much validation as you would normally have.   Lots of false positives and false negatives.   Also, in many viral infections viral shedding can occur fairly long after the infection/illness is gone.

    So far there have been no confirmed cases of people getting it twice and there is a lot of evidence that having the infection confers immunity.

    • Like 1

  6. They told us we had to follow the stay at home order to flatten the curve so we don't overwhelm the hospitals.  That's done.  The curve is at flat as it's gonna get.  The hospitals are empty.  Time to open all the way.  

    Also, stay at home orders don't seem to work.  In NY during the stay at home order, 66% of new cases were from people saying at home.  Those were either retirees, previously unemployed or newly unemployed.  18% were nursing home patients.   Only 16% were from essential workers (including high risk health care workers).   Staying at home increased your risk.  The lock downs don't work.

    There is evidence now that there was an event in Wuhan in early October.  That's probably when it really started.  Wuhan is a international city of 11 million with lots of travel in and out.  By the time we issued stay at home orders it was way too late.  All just a waist of time. 

    • Like 3

  7. 2 hours ago, ghost_of_fl said:

    My God, you can't possibly think that's the only thing medication can do.   But let's just say it is.  

    A medication that makes people GO HOME FASTER from the hospital means they spend (X) less days around other people who may become infected.   Maybe in the additional day they would have been there in the hospital, they might have infected one person who in turn infected 2 other people.  And so on and so on.  How do you not know that doctor??

     

    What I know is what I've been saying for a long time here.   The virus is/has been many, many steps ahead of us the whole time.  That's what viruses do.  All the things we've been doing are too little too late.  It's a folly to think we can beat it in the short run.  In the long run yes, we, or nature, will.   That's the reality of virology.  

    • Like 1

  8. 2 hours ago, ghost_of_fl said:

    My God, you can't possibly think that's the only thing medication can do.   But let's just say it is.  

    A medication that makes people GO HOME FASTER from the hospital means they spend (X) less days around other people who may become infected.   Maybe in the additional day they would have been there in the hospital, they might have infected one person who in turn infected 2 other people.  And so on and so on.  How do you not know that doctor??

     

    You are a complete idiot and you have demonstrated no redeeming characteristics whatsoever. 

    • Thanks 1

  9. 2 minutes ago, mihcmac said:

    I wonder if there is a way to calculate the number of unreported infections there are?

     

    Yes, that would involve testing for antibodies.  Some of that has already been done and there will be more.  It is likely a  very large number based on some of the early results.  Since they won't be able to test all 325 million people in the US, they'll have to test samples and make estimates based on that.


  10. 9 minutes ago, ghost_of_fl said:

     

    Well doctor, it appears to be you vs. the world now. 🤷‍♂️

    Gilead in Licensing Talks for Global Remdesivir Production

    https://www.thestreet.com/investing/gilead-in-talks-with-chemical-and-pharma-makers-on-global-remdesivir-production?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

     

    And what has changed about the effectiveness of the drug?  Maybe one day there will be good data that it reduces mortality.  If that happens, it'll be great.  Until then you'll just keep yapping I guess.


  11. 30 minutes ago, ghost_of_fl said:

    ... when a doctor starts saying the above, RUN cuz their guess is as good as yours.  😄

     

    It's funny that we would disagree on this one.  To me, the far more scary physician is the one who thinks they know it all or that they've seen it all.  The one who is so confident they fail to consider all possibilities.  The one who accepts dogma.  You don't have to be a doctor for long to realize that medicine is constantly changing and there is always something you have't seen before or defies what you thought you knew.  Text books are one thing.  Real life is something else.

    • Like 2

  12. 11 minutes ago, kidblast said:

    I agree... 100%

    I try to tell certain members of my family this very thing, and I literally get screamed at for being stupid, heartless and insensitive. 

    "Experts say..""  what do they know, what if they are all just wrong?   which in fact, they've mostly been wrong with almost all the predictions.

     The worse virus to hit this country was, is and shall forever be the main stream media.   Shut that down, and we'd be in much better shape.

     

    +1 to that.

    • Like 1
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