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Black Dog

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Posts posted by Black Dog

    Covid19 How many in your state or country?

    in The Gibson Lounge

    Posted

    11 hours ago, ghost_of_fl said:

    So as a medical professional, do you agree with Dr. Fauci (the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases)?  Or do you feel you are more informed on that particular subject than Dr. Fauci?  

     

    Agree with him about what?

    He's made a few big mistakes in this.  First he said this was not going to be a problem for us in the US, remember that?  Then he said we shouldn't wear masks because they would make things worse.  Now he thinks everyone should wear a mask.   Then they asked him when we should re-open to which he said when there are no new cases.  Really?  None?  When is that going to happen?  Then he said that we could lift the shutdown when we have a vaccine.  I was reading about the '17-'18 Flu season and I saw an interesting number.  CDC says that around 60,000 people died from Flu that year.  They estimated that around 5000 lives were saved by the Flu vaccine.  That's not very impressive.  The point is everyone keeps talking about the vaccine that we don't have, that we don't know effectiveness of, that's going to save us all.

    He's obviously a smart guy but disaster preparedness is apparently not his thing.

    Him, Redfield (CDC), et al, were caught flat footed on this.   Why did we have no PPE  stockpile?  Why didn't we have a plan in advance for a respiratory virus pandemic?  Everyone knew we would have one, I mean another one.   NIH, CDC and FEMA should have had all that worked out in advance instead of the Keystone Cop approach.

    Other than that I agree with him completely.

    Covid19 How many in your state or country?

    in The Gibson Lounge

    Posted

    3 hours ago, gdecant1 said:

    At this time we don't know enough about this virus  to even think about  herd immunity even if it was an option!

    Plan, approach, course of action, way to go, in this context they mean the same thing.  

    Please stop telling people that this is a very, very mild illness  in healthy young people. Even the news media stopped telling that lie. I think it was BBP's  son, my daughter, my son in law and thousands of others would be more than happy to argue this point with you.

    No misunderstanding. You are advocating we develop a plan (you did say plan this time) for herd immunity  without knowing if it would actually work yet only this time your saying only do it to the young and healthy.

     

    Actually, herd immunity is proven science.  All this lock down stuff is not.  It's never been done before.

    The last numbers I've seen for the US were that the number of people less than 25 years age who have died from this virus is less than 100.   The number of people less than 45 that have died is less than 1000.  It starts to go up after 60.   And the vast majority of them had significant underlying health conditions.   It is absolutely not a "lie" that young healthy people  don't get very sick from this.  It's a fact.

    Free Spirit - Paul Rodgers

    in The Gibson Lounge

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, tjdjr1 said:

    The guitar player respectfully covers Kossoff... Tone and vibrato very close...Tasty !

     

    I thought he pulled it off pretty good too.  I like his style too.  No fuss, just business.   If you walked into a joint and saw him you might think he's the bouncer.

    Covid19 How many in your state or country?

    in The Gibson Lounge

    Posted · Edited by Black Dog

    1 hour ago, ghost_of_fl said:

    Sigh. It wasn't a study, it was a bunch of medical doctors going "hmmmmm this person was here last week, cleared and discharged and now they have returned sick with the same thing again".   You're just not listening buddy. 

     

    Wow!  What a timely coincidence.  I just heard it reported in the news that the "repeat infections" were due to false positive tests.  Who was it that said that? 

    1 hour ago, Black Dog said:

    First of all, many of the tests that were developed in a hurried fashion, especially those outside the US, had high false positives and false negatives. 

     

    Newsweek?  Is that any good?

    https://www.newsweek.com/south-korea-experts-say-recovered-coronavirus-patients-retested-positive-because-dead-virus-parts-1500998

    • Like 1

    Covid19 How many in your state or country?

    in The Gibson Lounge

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, ghost_of_fl said:

    Sigh. It wasn't a study, it was a bunch of medical doctors going "hmmmmm this person was here last week, cleared and discharged and now they have returned sick with the same thing again".   You're just not listening buddy. 

     

    When did I say it was a study?  Go chase your tail some more.  Then when you get tired you can take a nap. or pee on the floor.

    • Like 1

    Covid19 How many in your state or country?

    in The Gibson Lounge

    Posted · Edited by Black Dog

    5 minutes ago, ghost_of_fl said:

    Black Dog - are you saying 'Herd Immunity' can occur where the having the virus does not cause immunity after infection?  How exactly does that work Big Dog? 

     

    First of all, many of the tests that were developed in a hurried fashion, especially those outside the US, had high false positives and false negatives.  We even had a lot of that here in the US.  So when someone has a test result you don't always know what it means.  Second, just because there may be SOME people who's exposure and infection did not result in immunity DOES NOT mean that everyone else has no immunity.  You know absolutely nothing.

    • Like 1

    Covid19 How many in your state or country?

    in The Gibson Lounge

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, ghost_of_fl said:

    Problem with that theory is it's been reported that people who have already had COVID-19 are not immune.  South Korea and Germany have reported patients who were cleared and then got sick from it again.  It's a nice thought but not a one size fits all solution.   

    Edit: source https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/south-korea-coronavirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html

     

    You are like a little puppy, chasing it's tail and other shadows.  You wander around on the internet chasing this or that or the other thing.  That is the fog of war.  Nobody knows what any of it means.  You don't get through it by panic.  The way you get through it is by following the science of what you know.

    Covid19 How many in your state or country?

    in The Gibson Lounge

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, gdecant1 said:

    I am paying attention. Herd immunity for humans should never ever be a plan. 

     

    I never said plan.  I said approach.  

    1 hour ago, gdecant1 said:

    When i hear "herd immunity" i think of cows

     

    So maybe there is a misunderstanding of what I'm talking about here.  In the context of this virus (not polio or smallpox or anything else), what we're talking about is a virus that causes a very, very mild illness in healthy young people.  If we develop a plan to shield the vulnerable (which can easily be done), and let the young healthy people get it, then they will protect and shield the vulnerable with their immunity.   It's the exact opposite of killing the old, or anyone else for that matter.  It has nothing to do with cows.

    One more thing.  You seem to question my fitness for my profession.  I graduated medical school in 1997.  Since then I've seen over 150,000 patients.  I've never even tried to keep track of the number of lives I've personally saved.  If I would have done it, It would be a very large number.   I still do it every time I go to work, Covid-19 or not.  

    • Thanks 1

    Covid19 How many in your state or country?

    in The Gibson Lounge

    Posted · Edited by Black Dog

    45 minutes ago, gdecant1 said:

    When i hear "stable genius" i think  of horse stalls and the guy who is the best at shoveling horse dookie. When i hear "herd immunity" i think of cows. Put them all in the same pen and it is survival of the fittest . If they die no big deal we were going to slaughter them anyway.  I am saddened by the fact that some people think this is ok for humans. No concern for others lives. And from medical professionals no less!

     

    You aren't paying attention.  What I'm pointing out is that the overall US plan of mass quarantine/shelter in place is resulting in MORE DEATHS.  The approach I'm advocating is resulting in LESS DEATHS.  

    • Like 1

    Covid19 How many in your state or country?

    in The Gibson Lounge

    Posted · Edited by Black Dog

    So, if you look at every single east coast state in the US, I get a total population of around 112 million.  Total deaths for all those states is 42 thousand.  That's 37.5 per 100,000.  Sweden is 25 per 100,000.  That includes coastal every state from Maine to Florida.

    Covid19 How many in your state or country?

    in The Gibson Lounge

    Posted

    The other thing people forget about the Swedish plan is that they may have somewhat higher numbers of cases and deaths initially, but in the long run they will do the same or better because they will get to herd immunity faster.   But still, just 2500 dead since this started?  That's a low number in absolute terms or per capita, whichever you like. 

    Pennsylvania has a population of 12.8 million.  They have a full shelter in place order.  They have 2400 deaths from Covid-19.  Sweden population 10 million with mild restrictions 2500 deaths.  And it's not summer in Pennsylvania right now.

    You can go back and forth on this all day long.  If you want to keep your blinders on go ahead.  

    Covid19 How many in your state or country?

    in The Gibson Lounge

    Posted

    1 minute ago, ghost_of_fl said:

    Actually is was 1 million people in Sweden vs 1 million people in USA.  Apples to apples.  Doesn't make sense to compare an entire country to JUST a hotspot in another country. 

     

    That's completely false.   Just because it's death per million stat doesn't mean they are apples to apples.  You have to compare areas of similar size, population and demographics.  There's never going to be a perfect comparison but you can't include a country with the vast interior of the US to a country like Sweden. 

    Covid19 How many in your state or country?

    in The Gibson Lounge

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, ghost_of_fl said:

    A good amount of the "at risk" people need assistance at home.  There isn't always a family member to stay with them.  Some older people don't have any family left.  So now you have to quarantine all the caregivers too.  Not as simple as it sounds but it's a nice thought.  I was thinking the same way in the beginning of this.  I just don't think that's realistic anymore.  

     

    And exactly who is caring for those people now?  Are the caregivers quarantined?  No, they use PPE.  It is actually a very realistic plan.  Much more so than a complete shutdown that does not show better results when compared to less drastic measures.  That's a fact. 

    There is no perfect answer.  But there are better alternatives.  

    Covid19 How many in your state or country?

    in The Gibson Lounge

    Posted

    This has been one of the dumbest things we've ever done as a country.  There were many things we could have done to protect the vulnerable without shutting down the entire economy.  Have them shelter at home.  Have food and supplies delivered.  Give them financial aid.  Lots of things.  It would have been more effective, less expensive and done way less harm.  

    We have cancer patients around the country that are not getting their chemotherapy.  Are they not vulnerable?  How long should they go without it?  Until they're dead?  That's just one example.  there are countless others.  

    • Thanks 1

    Optimism...

    in The Gibson Lounge

    Posted

    Fauci just announced a new study on Remdesivir.  It's a better study, double blind placebo controlled.  That's good.  It showed a mortality reduction from 11% down to 8%.  Not exactly a game changer but better than nothing.  But, it reminds me of Oseltamivir and Zanamivir, both Influenza drugs.  When they came out the manufacturers had all this great data that was not reproduced when we actually used them.  We'll see. 

    Optimism...

    in The Gibson Lounge

    Posted

    28 minutes ago, Cougar said:

     

    That's the media where you get your news?  The Blaze?  LOL!

    "The Blaze reports news with a far right bias... Story selection almost always favors the right on The Blaze and there is a heavy Christian bias as well.... A factual search reveals two failed fact checks directly attributed to The Blaze, here and here. However, the founder of The Blaze, Glenn Beck, has an abysmal track record with 6 Pants on Fire claims from Politifact alone.

    Founded by Glenn Beck, American conservative political commentator, radio host, television producer, and conspiracy theorist.

    You guys are really something.  Regarding the fish tank story, you forgot (?) to mention that the fish tank cleaner they injested contained chloroquine phosphate, and that the wife said she and her husband ingested the cleaner because Trump praised chloroquine.  Clearly, they would not have taken this stuff, and the husband would not have died, if it wasn't for Trump making reckless claims about chloroquine, which we can now see turned out to be nonsense, even the correct medication.

    How anyone can continue to support the felon in the white house is beyond me.  I don't think I have to list the daily outrages he pummels the nation with.

    I'm outa here.

     

    I didn't forget anything.  It says right in the story what the wife's claim was.  It also says that the police are investigating it as a homicide.  You can go sooth yourself by watching anti-trump videos on youtube.

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