duluthdan Posted August 30, 2013 Share Posted August 30, 2013 Surprised to see a 1948 J-45 at a rather proud price exceeding $8 Grand US at Willies: http://www.williesguitars.com/index.cfm/gibson_acoustics/7/inventory/3 Probably a pristine specimen. Glad I'm not a vintage acquirer right now - prices firming up? Is the demand there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MuddyDitch Zhuangzi Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 I'd rather buy a guitar than put my money in the stock market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duluthdan Posted August 31, 2013 Author Share Posted August 31, 2013 I'd rather buy a guitar than put my money in the stock market. As a guitar player I certainly understand the thought, especially after the recent roller-coaster path the US has recently experienced in "the markets". But I wonder if the market for "investment grade" (whatever your definition may be) is robust and efficient enough to support an actual investment strategy in guitars. My gut says that is much less controllable than the traditional investment markets. Have we reached a saturation point in guitars? If you purchase and play a high-grade vintage guitar, is there a rational expectation that it will increase in value (over a time horizon) or is the strategy one of parking the $$$ with the thought that one can at least break-even at the end? I wonder if anyone has actually successfully set up a self directed IRA which has been able to include guitars as a qualified commodity/investment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RunningDownTheR Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 There is a sucker born everyday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mountainpicker Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 Even though I fully realize that there isn't any such thing as "breaking even at the end" I thoroughly embrace the concept of guitars as investments because it's always good to have another rationalization in the quiver when I encounter a guitar I want. But in answer to the posted question?: No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GotTheSilver Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 Even though I fully realize that there isn't any such thing as "breaking even at the end" I thoroughly embrace the concept of guitars as investments because it's always good to have another rationalization in the quiver when I encounter a guitar I want. But in answer to the posted question?: No. I agree with every aspect of this response, especially the rationalization piece! I think that the dealers want prices to rebound, but based on what I see going on in the economy, I don't think that is likely any time soon. I haven't been following vintage prices, so I don't know exactly what the real market (not posted asking prices) is like right now, but I can't imagine it is rebounding. I am sure that some day our economy will get better, and as it does prices of vintage guitars and other such toys will start to increase. So if you hold a vintage guitar long enough, I am sure you will see some price appreciation. Just don't ask me how much over any given time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
62burst Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 Well, that's just Willie's being Willie's. Or any other larger vtg instrument dealer. One can get a pretty decent idea of where the prices are at by "watch listing" eBay auctions on instruments of interest to you, as well as noting how long guitars remain in inventory at vintage dealers. This can amount to months, if not years. One thing I think you'll notice is that the prices are all over the map, and that many fine listings end without a single bid, only to be re-listed. While the pristine examples are beautiful to look at, thankfully I have no interest in these time capsules, and actually regret how they have pulled the prices up for even the most heavily played-in guitars (read "beaters"). The thought that these old wooden boxes might qualify as investments rarely enters my head. Although not the most liquid asset, more value to me than what others might do with their discretionary spending. And just like any of the contemporary stuff, any hit I might take should I need to move one along gets rationalized as a "rental cost". 'Had a nice D-41 for about 30 months or so. Ended up "renting" that one for about $12 or $13 /month. As an admission price to ride the sonic learning curve, I'll take it. Dan, I know that you've had reservations about getting into Vintage because of perceived concerns re: maintenance/ or reliability. I would suggest that just the opposite may be true. Once things such as a neck set (I've got a 5 pc lam neck that hasn't been off since day-1), re-fret, or re-glue are done, the guitar will be as stable (if afforded reasonable care), if not more so, than a new guitar whose finish is still curing, and whose wood is learning that it's not a tree any more. Tom (tpbiii) takes this stuff seriously, and has made a huge report on the investment angle, if you'd like to get some of his insights via the UGMF's Vintage Corner (thanks, Tom, surprised you haven't weighed in here yet): Lots of Graphs & Analysis Stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GuitarLight Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 Most guitars offer Zero in the form of investment.... Rarely, if ever, does one get back what they put out for an acoustic guitar, unless it is some form of spectacular collectible rare, unusual, visually perfect, exotic chunk of wood laden with MOP, and a limited edition. Even then, it is not likely you will get a full return unless it is older than you are and has been around for 50 to 100 years. Acoustic guitars for investment....do that...and your going to be a very poor man who spent all your money on wooden candy that offered no reasonable return. Guitars are for playing, and collecting, and for personal enjoyment. Investment? 99% of the time...No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duluthdan Posted August 31, 2013 Author Share Posted August 31, 2013 There are so many components at play in the “Vintage” Guitar Market that it gives me pause. Some of it is comprised of the real economic fundamentals, some are the mechanical and environmental considerations, and some are related to what I merely recognize as the “Human Condition”. Human Condition: My wife and I have been married 34 years. We have a very nice set of China that, as I recall, we have used perhaps twice. Don’t know why, but there is a real reluctance – whether its just convenience (wash by hand), the fact that they reside in special protective covers, or the fear of damage / loss. I just don’t know. I suppose its likely a combination. I have the same trepidation regarding extremely expensive guitars. I like to play, I don’t like to worry. Mechanical/Environmental: I live in a semi-arid climate at relatively high altitude (8,000 feet) with intensely strong hot sun. I would have to worry about humidity levels even more than I do now. Not sure if I’m up to that. I play my J-45 in the sun sometimes, in short sessions – if it blew up on me I would not be crushed, I’d feel stupid and bad, but not as horrified as if it were a $12,000 Banner Gibson. The nearest Luthier is a 7 hour round trip, over 2 high mountain passes, the trip is “iffy” 6 months out of the year. Any true maintenance requiring expertise is not very convenient. Economics: The price of involvement financially is a bit of a stretch for a middle-class working guy, it just is. The supply and demand factor has two sides to the coin – the supply is not growing, and, in fact, must actually be shrinking somewhat. As physical items age, they are simply going to have to survive all of the elements, and some will not fair very well. Some will, but many won’t. The demand factor is a big unknown – will younger “players” / collectors continue to be drawn to vintage guitars? Are there economic considerations at play that will limit their discretionary abilities? Is the present “new normal” impacting even the current demand? I often observe folks pointing out the ridiculousness of present prices on instruments that seem quite desirable. At some point, if a guy spends $10 grand + on a guitar he’d probably like to believe that under most conditions he could get out at least even, at least I do. In the market there are winners and potential losers. There is risk. I’ve almost always had an aversion to risk, because when I have taken those sorts of risk, I always seem to be the guy that comes up short because of factors outside of my control. Fear: For some of the same indefinable reasons that I do not use the fine China dishes, I’m afraid an investment in a fine vintage guitar may result in a diminished return of sorts, financially, and in terms of actually taking the time to enjoy playing. At the playing level, I think I would just simply be afraid. So, part of the original question is still there. At the level of current asking prices, such as the 1948 at Willies, is there demand? I am not actively seeking out a “Vintage” guitar – but if I cross paths with a good one, right in my face, I would be tempted. It would have to be solidly in the “Player” category. If it was in the Collector category, I would be that guy that loses his shirt – it has just always been that way. Got a ’43 Banner that’s been drilled out for a pickup? That would not sway me in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-1854Me Posted August 31, 2013 Share Posted August 31, 2013 Dan -- My sense is "No, the recession (specifically as pertaining to guitar prices) is not over". At least, not for a lot of vintage/used guitars. Only the real straight, clean and rare stuff seems to be continuing to command top dollar and selling briskly. And as someone else noted earlier, that's just Willies being Willies. There does seem to be a little movement in prices, here and there, but not much of a trend in my sense. I still see guitars listed that have been there for months with pie-in-the-sky "2010" prices -- they're still waiting for That Certain Someone to wander on in and buy high. Fred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Murph Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Dan -- My sense is "No, the recession (specifically as pertaining to guitar prices) is not over". I agree. The U.S. dollar value is tanking and will continue to tank as long as they continue to print them at this rate. Guitars are a far better investment than dollars. So is bacon...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
badbluesplayer Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Biscotti futures is where the market is heading. :unsure: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GotTheSilver Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 I agree. The U.S. dollar value is tanking and will continue to tank as long as they continue to print them at this rate. Guitars are a far better investment than dollars. So is bacon...... Mmmm, bacon, aaaarrrrrrrrrrllllllll........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dotneck Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Most guitars offer Zero in the form of investment.... Rarely, if ever, does one get back what they put out for an acoustic guitar, unless it is some form of spectacular collectible rare, unusual, visually perfect, exotic chunk of wood laden with MOP, and a limited edition. Even then, it is not likely you will get a full return unless it is older than you are and has been around for 50 to 100 years. I've gotten 100% of my money back many times when selling guitars. Not so hard if you buy used instruments and choose carefully. I agree its unlikely if you buy new. OTOH....getting 100% of your cost back in 5 to seven years is not such a good investment...I would prefer to MAKE some money on investments...but its not a bad strategy for owning and playing some interesting instruments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zombywoof Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 Another NO! The big sexy dealers like Willie, Gruhn and such seem to be able to afford to sit on stock until they get their price. Smaller stores tell me they still have to routinely knock about 30% off that listed in the Vintage Price Guide to sell anything. You walk in with cash in hand and you can expect a deep discount. The guy who owns my favorite small shop says about the only folks he sells vintage stuff to at the big guitar shows are the big sexy dealers and does not get near what he is asking. Apparently Guitar Center is one of his best customers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duluthdan Posted September 1, 2013 Author Share Posted September 1, 2013 Another NO! The big sexy dealers like Willie, Gruhn and such seem to be able to afford to sit on stock until they get their price. Smaller stores tell me they still have to routinely knock about 30% off that listed in the Vintage Price Guide to sell anything. You walk in with cash in hand and you can expect a deep discount. The guy who owns my favorite small shop says about the only folks he sells vintage stuff to at the big guitar shows are the big sexy dealers and does not get near what he is asking. Apparently Guitar Center is one of his best customers. Would be interesting to find out how many of these dealer listed guitars are actually consignment items, which do not require dealer capital to be hung up on the wall. Of the handful I've inquired about - almost all were on consignment - indicating that the owner/seller desire for a net return is the critical price factor? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mountainpicker Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 I buy guitars to make an investment in my personal happiness and pleasure so I get a 100% return on my investment when I pick a good one. I'm old enough now that I've put about twelve people into the ground and not one of them took anything with them, guitars or otherwise. For me, the future holds fewer days than the number of days I've already burned up so I'm beginning to assign my personal property to the people I want to have specific things. I want my guitars to be played and enjoyed by a guitar player, not sitting in some closet. I just don't get the money angle as I get closer to the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duluthdan Posted September 1, 2013 Author Share Posted September 1, 2013 I buy guitars to make an investment in my personal happiness and pleasure so I get a 100% return on my investment when I pick a good one. I'm old enough now that I've put about twelve people into the ground and not one of them took anything with them, guitars or otherwise. For me, the future holds fewer days than the number of days I've already burned up so I'm beginning to assign my personal property to the people I want to have specific things. I want my guitars to be played and enjoyed by a guitar player, not sitting in some closet. I just don't get the money angle as I get closer to the end. MP - Please add me to your list... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Debonnaire Posted September 1, 2013 Share Posted September 1, 2013 When I was researching my hg 00 purchase I registered for heritage auctions and noted that the price of 00 style guitars has gone up about 25% in the last three years. You can register for free and see actual paid auction prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tpbiii Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Well, that's just Willie's being Willie's. Or any other larger vtg instrument dealer. One can get a pretty decent idea of where the prices are at by "watch listing" eBay auctions on instruments of interest to you, as well as noting how long guitars remain in inventory at vintage dealers. This can amount to months, if not years. One thing I think you'll notice is that the prices are all over the map, and that many fine listings end without a single bid, only to be re-listed. While the pristine examples are beautiful to look at, thankfully I have no interest in these time capsules, and actually regret how they have pulled the prices up for even the most heavily played-in guitars (read "beaters"). The thought that these old wooden boxes might qualify as investments rarely enters my head. Although not the most liquid asset, more value to me than what others might do with their discretionary spending. And just like any of the contemporary stuff, any hit I might take should I need to move one along gets rationalized as a "rental cost". 'Had a nice D-41 for about 30 months or so. Ended up "renting" that one for about $12 or $13 /month. As an admission price to ride the sonic learning curve, I'll take it. Dan, I know that you've had reservations about getting into Vintage because of perceived concerns re: maintenance/ or reliability. I would suggest that just the opposite may be true. Once things such as a neck set (I've got a 5 pc lam neck that hasn't been off since day-1), re-fret, or re-glue are done, the guitar will be as stable (if afforded reasonable care), if not more so, than a new guitar whose finish is still curing, and whose wood is learning that it's not a tree any more. Tom (tpbiii) takes this stuff seriously, and has made a huge report on the investment angle, if you'd like to get some of his insights via the UGMF's Vintage Corner (thanks, Tom, surprised you haven't weighed in here yet): Lots of Graphs & Analysis Stuff I was off playing the Armuchee Bluegrass Festival -- we must keep our priorities in order[rolleyes]. I played mostly our 35 Jumbo and 38 D-18. Best, -Tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onewilyfool Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 I'd say it's still a buyer's market in N. California.........as far as guitars and Vintage guitars go...By the way, I wouldn't want to be selling a Les Paul on CL at this time...124 listings for L.P's on our local CL....ouch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red 333 Posted September 2, 2013 Share Posted September 2, 2013 Anyone have $60K to spare? Red 333 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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