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I think we are hitting a bubble for "vintage" guitar prices…...


onewilyfool

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Even a casual scanning of websites like Reverb and Craig's list, etc……show a marked upswing in prices even for the most mundane guitars that can be considered "vintage"…Don't get me wrong….I'm not complaining…..this keeps my G.A.S. in total check….lol…..Just wondering if you all had similar impressions?

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The vintage dealers I talk to tell me prices have been rising but they do not think they will hit the obscene prices of yesteryear. I can't complain though as I have done real well this year and gotten two of the three guitars on my hit list for well below market value. Probably has a lot to do with the kinds of guitars I covet as much as anything though.

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I casually and occasionally look at Ebay for asking and selling prices. It is my opinion that the guitars with the inflated (pre-economic downturn) prices are not selling. Just as Real Estate took a hit......so have vintage guitars.

 

I have found very few 'deals' on Vintage instruments lately. Most sellers are holding a hard-line on pricing however. I am a bit 'spoiled' I guess. I have found great deals in the past....

 

 

 

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I'm pretty much staying put. I'm the happiest I've ever been and it's with one guitar I've had for 30 years and another I've had for 36.

 

I have a good happy archtop now in my '49 L-48 and if I upgrade, I won't be spending $4000 on an old L-7. Screw that, I'll take that same money and buy a Bozeman L7 from 10 years ago or a Heritage Golden Eagle or a Guild Artist Award. Those are scary overpiced but not as overpriced as something that was cranked out in 1946 and happened to survive.

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I'm definitely biased on this issue but in my opinion, prices have been stabilizing rather than rising. I have seen steady sales at my store at what I would consider market price.

 

Overall, prices for the general market have been a bit stagnate compared to the last year or so (See the first few pages in the VG Price Guide 2015). Maybe you're seeing prices for the style of item you look for rise. Maybe you're ahead of the trend? (VG indicates that the prices for vintage Martin guitars have dropped by 5% in the last year while Gibson and Fender prices have increased by about a percentage point).

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Yes -advertising is very different than actually selling!

 

 

I would like the 37 Gibson below to have a 37 Martin companion! I keep playing that if asked by relatives in the chance they may think I'm in trouble, but apart from one "urk, urk, urk, you look like you need to buy a new guitar!"....nothing so far..........................

 

 

But a Martin friend from the same year, well.....probably sound the same, but the prices......

 

 

And if the relatives find out how much I've spent on the Gibson, well I guess they will put in for a.....committal hearing.

 

 

Queenie9_zpsa5157486.jpg

 

 

 

BluesKing777.

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Agree with most of the points here- I think a lot of boomers are selling, making the market awash with great product, but want top dollar for everything. Rather than observe whether there's a market bubble, I'd be interested to see what the margins are for vintage dealers. Fumblefingers kinda hit on it- there's a weird bubble on a lot of things right now, exacerbated by a transparent market where people can easily see the going rates

 

Another weird trend is the Dan Auerbach/Jack White effect- crappy plywood guitars and suuuppeerr cheap electrics from the 60s are all these amazing blues machines with "great black keys tone". Sometimes a guitar is just old wood.

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I've heard the bubble thang for years. What seems to really happen as with any collector market is some go up and some go down, depending on what is a hot collectable at the time. What is interesting is how Taylor's never seem to be collectable guitars in the vintage guitar marketplace. There doesn't seem to be a demand for them as vintage guitars in the vintage guitar marketplace even though some now are old. Maybe if Taylor ever sold to Fender, suddenly authenticTaylors made by BobTaylor would become collectable.?? Stuff like that figures into the collectable market.

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I've heard the bubble thang for years. What seems to really happen as with any collector market is some go up and some go down, depending on what is a hot collectable at the time. What is interesting is how Taylor's never seem to be collectable guitars in the vintage guitar marketplace. There doesn't seem to be a demand for them as vintage guitars in the vintage guitar marketplace even though some now are old. Maybe if Taylor ever sold to Fender, suddenly authenticTaylors made by BobTaylor would become collectable.?? Stuff like that figures into the collectable market.

 

Perhaps it's the junky, bright sound? Uh-oh.... [tongue]

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BK…how about a '33 Martin R-18 for a companion?

 

IMGP0072-1-1.jpg

 

Yes -advertising is very different than actually selling!

 

 

I would like the 37 Gibson below to have a 37 Martin companion! I keep playing that if asked by relatives in the chance they may think I'm in trouble, but apart from one "urk, urk, urk, you look like you need to buy a new guitar!"....nothing so far..........................

 

 

But a Martin friend from the same year, well.....probably sound the same, but the prices......

 

 

And if the relatives find out how much I've spent on the Gibson, well I guess they will put in for a.....committal hearing.

 

 

Queenie9_zpsa5157486.jpg

 

 

 

BluesKing777.

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BK…how about a '33 Martin R-18 for a companion?

 

IMGP0072-1-1.jpg

 

 

 

 

 

Thanks OWF.

 

It looks pretty cool, but far too nice a condition to be friends with my L-0...

 

 

I was thinking more of the beaten up look, like maybe this one - the thread was vintage price bubble - well look at this bubble:

 

 

 

http://www.elderly.com/vintage/items/10U-6784.htm

 

 

 

 

BluesKing777.

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Thanks OWF.

 

It looks pretty cool, but far too nice a condition to be friends with my L-0...

 

 

I was thinking more of the beaten up look, like maybe this one - the thread was vintage price bubble - well look at this bubble:

 

 

 

http://www.elderly.com/vintage/items/10U-6784.htm

 

 

 

 

BluesKing777.

Yeah…that's oneI'm saving up for too…lol

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I don't know, I still feel like there is a huge glut in the used guitar market. The true vintage stuff seems to hold up pretty well but plain old used guitars seem to be less expensive and staying there. I'm not really looking since I don't think I want to go through all the break in time that a new guitar takes not to mention all the upkeep on yet another guitar (here in the land of low humidity). I do think that if all the large price increases that are being bantered about by all the major manufacturers happens in 2015 that the used prices will notch up proportionally. But only God knows and he certainly ain't talkin' to me.

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  • 4 weeks later...
What is interesting is how Taylor's never seem to be collectable guitars in the vintage guitar marketplace. There doesn't seem to be a demand for them as vintage guitars in the vintage guitar marketplace even though some now are old.

 

Nothing about 1974 Taylor's seems vintage when compared to an 1874 Martin. Too many great old guitars for collector's to drool over before getting to the new kid on the block.

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I have all the Vintage Guitar Price Guide for many years. This is a form estimate of the long term history of vintage guitar prices -- not perfect but the best around that is accessible.

 

Here is a chart with three 60s Gibsons -- 62 HB, 65 Dove, and 65 F-25 -- plus two J-45s for reference: 52 and 42.

605040Gibs_zpscfe0718a.jpg

 

 

This seems to match my memory for wartime and postwar Gibsons. The sort of behaved as a clump with a group jump about 2007 and with the banners jumping up alone starting in about 2007.

 

Prewar is a different deal.

 

I'll make a chart on the prewar stuff tomorrow.

 

Let's pick,

 

-Tom

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Even a casual scanning of websites like Reverb and Craig's list, etc……show a marked upswing in prices even for the most mundane guitars that can be considered "vintage"…Don't get me wrong….I'm not complaining…..this keeps my G.A.S. in total check….lol…..Just wondering if you all had similar impressions?

 

Send some of them buyers my way.... [glare]

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