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Running Out Of Time


JuanCarlosVejar
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Read this yesterday. CFOs come and go. Means absolutely nothing. Henry may have to sell a division or two. I can't imagine an impact on Bozeman or Nashville.

 

Without knowing how the company is structured, we really don't know how that might work. The company obviously has massive amounts of debt, despite their annual sales numbers. Expanding beyond their core business may prove to be a bridge too far.

 

The bondholders are alarmed, and they should be. The properties they are talking about selling in Nashville are worth peanuts relative to the size of debt referenced in the article.

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This has been brewing for a long time and the debt collectors are coming for their money. Henry has tried for

a long time to diversify his way out of a slumping market. Unfortunately, that diversification has brought on

unmanageable debt. It appears that Gibson may not be able to sell off enough of its assets before the note

comes due. There will probably still be a Gibson brand, but likely with new ownership and a more streamlined

portfolio.

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I don’t see that there is anything in the article that would lead me to believe the creditors won’t continue to work with Gibson. Plus, creditors forcing them into Bankruptcy would be costly with no guarantee they’d come out better than if they continued to work with Gibson. Also, the new tax laws will likely benefit Gibson’s profits and cash flows and, the economy. So, my take, despite the alarming tone of the article, is the creditors and Gibson will work through things this time around. Especially, since Gibson is showing it’s making efforts. Henry is a long time entrepreneur used to working and satisfying creditors. Just my take...

 

QM aka Jazzman Jeff

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I don’t see that there is anything in the article that would lead me to believe the creditors won’t continue to work with Gibson................ Henry is a long time entrepreneur used to working and satisfying creditors.

 

Bingo.

 

Henry took Gibson from the ash heap and built Bozeman from scratch pretty much and saved the Company for many decades.

 

This is a hic-up compared to that.

 

Order some t-shirts, buy a guitar.

 

[thumbup]

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The creditors are also smart enough to realize that the guitar market is not growing. It is currently

declining. Having millions and millions of dollars tied up in a shrinking market is not very appealing

to lending institutions looking to make money, not lose money. Henry is a smart man and has done a lot

with Gibson. His options, however, appear to be following the market.....shrinking.

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https://www.technavio.com/report/global-media-and-entertainment-services-global-guitar-market-2017-2021

 

Possibly investors view the guitar market as growing, and not shrinking.

The attached market study, by a company that does this professionally, points to things like the expansion of access to good, cheap learning materials and the explosion of the ukulele market as indicators.

I'm pretty sure populations are increasing in almost all guitar buying countries. The article points out the rapid growth of classical guitar sales in countries like Brazil, India and Taiwan. For many - the uke and classical guitar are entry points to the acoustic and electric guitar markets.

There are industries that are clearly dead in the water: Kodak is a great example. Check printers have seen their business decimated by the debit card. Professional writing instruments (Cross, Pentel, etc.) suffered due to email and electronic spreadsheet.

But - a guitar is different. It is a personal, musical instrument which cannot be replaced by a computer. The love for creating acoustic music cannot be deadened - even by hip-hop.

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https://www.technavio.com/report/global-media-and-entertainment-services-global-guitar-market-2017-2021

 

Possibly investors view the guitar market as growing, and not shrinking.

The attached market study, by a company that does this professionally, points to things like the expansion of access to good, cheap learning materials and the explosion of the ukulele market as indicators.

I'm pretty sure populations are increasing in almost all guitar buying countries. The article points out the rapid growth of classical guitar sales in countries like Brazil, India and Taiwan. For many - the uke and classical guitar are entry points to the acoustic and electric guitar markets.

There are industries that are clearly dead in the water: Kodak is a great example. Check printers have seen their business decimated by the debit card. Professional writing instruments (Cross, Pentel, etc.) suffered due to email and electronic spreadsheet.

But - a guitar is different. It is a personal, musical instrument which cannot be replaced by a computer. The love for creating acoustic music cannot be deadened - even by hip-hop.

 

The potential guitar market may be growing in much of the world, but that market is not necessarily geared toward expensive, hand-made American acoustic guitars from Gibson All you have to do is look at all the pretty decent (from a new player's perspective) guitars coming out of China and other low-cost manufacturing environments, which might sell for 10-20% of the cost of a Gibson.

 

Lots of small and mid-size niche manufacturers in the US get in trouble when they move outside their core expertise in an attempt to expand markets. They generally have to leverage to do this, and that's when they get into trouble, even when borrowing costs are relatively low.

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The potential guitar market may be growing in much of the world, but that market is not necessarily geared toward expensive, hand-made American acoustic guitars from Gibson All you have to do is look at all the pretty decent (from a new player's perspective) guitars coming out of China and other low-cost manufacturing environments, which might sell for 10-20% of the cost of a Gibson.

 

 

 

You’re forgetting Gibson is an industry leader, if not the industry leader in this market, with its Epiphone brand. Personally, I’ve long suspected that Epiphone is a major contributor to Gibson’s growing markets and profits, enabling Gibson’s hand made guitars to survive in the niche marketplace dominated by mass market guitars (that Epiphone dominates, and not visa-versa.)

 

QM aka Jazzman Jeff

Edited by QuestionMark
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Relax folks..

 

 

The people who write these articles seem to forget one thing... Their fathers, fathers, father, was still no more than a lad when these guys were still in the game.

There's smart dudes handling this crap, I'm pretty sure they'll find a way to sort it out.

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Relax folks..

 

 

The people who write these articles seem to forget one thing... Their fathers, fathers, father, was still no more than a lad when these guys were still in the game.

There's smart dudes handling this crap, I'm pretty sure they'll find a way to sort it out.

There may well be smart dudes running things but some of these same people got them into exactly this mess!

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Actually, the robo tuners were a good conceptual idea, but not for expensive guitars that experienced players play., which is where they appeared on. it’s a concept for beginner guitarists and inexpensive beginner guitars. The problem is beginner guitarists buy inexpensive guitars and the robo tuners would increase those guitars’ price.

 

The concept, in theory is good. It being if modern guitarists rely on electronic tuners to tune a guitar and regularly tune a guitar with their separate electronic tuner, why not skip the manual process of tuning to an electronic tuner and just have the instrument automatically tune to a tuner without the manual process.

 

The problem with that, of course, is though in concept it works well, in actuality, players like the manual process of tuning to an electronic tuner as it gives them a sense of involvement with tuning their guitars. Beginner guitarists know they do not know how to tune a guitar,so readily would welcome an autotuning system until they develop as players and are ready to tune a guitar themselves and have a sense of involvement with their guitar by tuning it themselves to an electronic tuning device.

 

Henry had a good idea, but, forgot to survey players. That was his mistake. You never know, though, autotuners may reappear one day as being ahead of their time. Or, on inexpensive beginner guitars some day if costs of self tuning tuners can be vastly reduced.

 

Just some thoughts.

 

QM aka Jazzman Jeff

Edited by QuestionMark
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Jeff, you've got an interesting point. Trouble is, Henry's vision & execution was way off the mark.

 

There had to be a huge amount of discussion about the product & marketing it, as it clearly was a radical change. I'd bet most Gibson employees were thinking no one's going to want this - but the boss wanted it.

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But, we also got the ES-339, the J-15, and countless other GOOD ideas.

 

He11, I have a chambered Studio Les Paul that sounds WAY better than the Swiss Cheese ones.

 

He kept the Gibson name American and Bozeman has built some of the finest Gibson acoustics in the history of the Company.

 

For the life of me, I'll never get all the hate for Henry.

 

Hey Henry, God Bless ya, man !

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