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Covid19 How many in your state or country?

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2 minutes ago, ghost_of_fl said:

The example was new York.  So look, you made the point for me.  In all of 2018 there were only 3 times as many deaths NATIONWIDE from the Flu as there were from COVID-19 in NEW YORK ALONE and ONLY IN THE LAST MONTH.   Do you see it now?

 

See what?  That we had more deaths from the this pandemic?  Of course.  That's not the point.   #-o

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46 minutes ago, ghost_of_fl said:

It's spreading crazy fast.   That is the point.  Spreading much much faster than the flu.    

 

Who says?  And you're using the wrong tense.  It's already spread, that's the point.   You can't take the butter back off the bread.

Edited by Black Dog
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59 minutes ago, ghost_of_fl said:

It's spreading crazy fast.   That is the point.  Spreading much much faster than the flu.    

How do you know this? How could you possibly??? And what "Flu" are you talking about. They are not all the same!

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32 minutes ago, brad1 said:

How do you know this? How could you possibly??? And what "Flu" are you talking about. They are not all the same!

Per this website: 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html#states

There have been over 16,000 deaths in New York related to COVID-19 in the last 28 days.   Going by how many tested positive doesn't tell you anything.  But I believe the number of deaths they are reporting is a good ballpark. 

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On 3/29/2020 at 12:23 PM, ghost_of_fl said:

New York: 53,363 cases have been identified.

 782 deaths

Source: www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.amp.html

 

3/29 data above.   Now the same site says 17,303 deaths in NY state.   Would you say that is spreading slow?   Note if you butter one slice of bread, it doesn't mean you spread butter on the whole loaf.  

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Neither of those things mean it's spreading fast.  It does mean there are a lot of cases now but we don't know how long it took to get there. 

There is evidence now that the virus was circulating in California as early as early December.   China reported it's first cases to the WHO on 12/31/19 (or so they say).  So we know they had to have there for at least a month before that based on the California data, and probably earlier.  Also, we knew we were having a worse than normal Flu season and lots of cases of Flu like illness that were testing negative for Flu.  I know, because I was testing them myself.  We all just thought it was a bunch of false negatives, which do happen.  In hindsight, they were probably Covid.   So  it's been around here for a long time.   

Antibody testing from New York now  indicates that around 2.7 million people have had it in NY State.   There was an outbreak in a prison in Ohio where they found around 2000 out of 2500 inmates got it but 95% had no symptoms at all from it  (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-prisons-testing-in/in-four-u-s-state-prisons-nearly-3300-inmates-test-positive-for-coronavirus-96-without-symptoms-idUSKCN2270RX).  

So it causes little to no symptoms in the vast majority that get it.   That's why it spread so far before we could figure it out.   

Vaccines are a pipe dream.  We have never had any effective vaccine for a Coronavirus.  There are lots of reasons for that and there is no reason to believe that we'll get an effective vaccine for this virus.  And if we do it will take at least a year, probably longer.  

Drugs?  We don't have any.  Not for the cold or any coronavirus.  We don't even have decent medication for Influenza.  There are a couple new ones that will be available soon but the ones we have now are not effective.   Again, even if they can get one, it's a long way off before it hits the market.

So what do we have?  We have a virus that makes most people not very sick or not sick at all.  We also know who does get very sick from it.  So what should we do?  Shut down the entire World indefinitely?  No.  We should protect our vulnerable and let the virus run it's course and hope that we get herd immunity, which we probably will.  Yes, I know immunity is not proven yet but, that is most likely what will happen and it's really all we've got.

Edited by Black Dog

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save lives-  thats what is important-- 

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1 hour ago, ghost_of_fl said:

 

3/29 data above.   Now the same site says 17,303 deaths in NY state.   Would you say that is spreading slow?   Note if you butter one slice of bread, it doesn't mean you spread butter on the whole loaf.  

 

Oh, and don't forget that those numbers are falsely elevated because you don't have to know if someone has the virus to say they died from it!!!  That's freekin hilarious.   Trust your leaders!!!  LOL.
 

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BD  how many dead in your family   is acceptable so I can go swimming?

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4 hours ago, rct said:

 

I would like to know how any of this works, because I don't want to be missing anything.  So, how does any of this work?

rct

  1. How any of this works?   Well, start with fearful stories of desperate people trapped on cruise ships. Then have a lone epidemiologist predict  2.2million deaths without any basis for it. Then have a UN organization - cozy with China,  WHO, predict a mortality rate of 3.4%.  Next have the NBA halt its season an hour after Trump gives his first speech to the nation on the virus. That becomes the headline - not anything the President said.  Then, within days, have cities like San Francisco declare a lockdown, virtue-signaling the mayors in cities that aspire to be as Progressive. Then have governors who want the Federal Government to underwrite their responses to the virus, report cases and deaths in a mis-leading way, so that the mortality rate would climb from 1% to 5%  (when actual research scientists in at least a half-dozen studies have proved it is  0.1%).
  2. Order businesses to shut down:  Force people to stay in their homes except when going to 'essential services', masked.  Convince people their lives are endangered every time they see someone without a mask.  Direct them to call police on their neighbors for infractions. Use  Drones provided for free by China  to track down people violating the 'lockdowns'.   Get liberal organizations like Face Book to offer their technical expertise to track people.  
  3. Mine the data to show minorities are more affected by the virus.  IE, your susceptibility is due to your race, not your years living an unhealthy lifestyle. .  Blame the President for not focusing on 'the poor and minorities'. 
  4.  Steer millions of the Stimulus $  targeted for Small Businesses  to big ones like the NBA and Harvard.   Celebrate the drop in the Stock Market and the rise in Unemployment and hope they stay unfavorable through November.  
  5. You're Welcome. 
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666 in my county today with 9 new deaths overnight.

529 in Dauphin, up 129 since the Liberate PA rally a week ago, 21 deaths overnight.

42,050 cases in PA, 1597 dead so far.  

The wife and I are still here and yes, we're taking this seriously.  

Read a piece that the virus gloms onto airborne particulates which helps explain the rapid spread in urban areas.  

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Read a piece that the virus gloms onto airborne particulates which helps explain the rapid spread in urban areas.  

Per  Ke Lan  a research scientist at Wuhan University.  

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2 hours ago, Black Dog said:

 

Oh, and don't forget that those numbers are falsely elevated because you don't have to know if someone has the virus to say they died from it!!!  That's freekin hilarious.   Trust your leaders!!!  LOL.
 

 

N.Y.C. Deaths Reach 6 Times the Normal Level, Far More Than Coronavirus Count Suggests

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.... 🤔

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

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3 hours ago, jvi said:

BD  how many dead in your family   is acceptable so I can go swimming?

 

Stroke away there jvi.

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Over 25 % of the Wuhan virus deaths in New York were from Nursing homes. No other state has numbers like that. I wonder why?...….

The Sweden mortality rate is going to end up about the same as the U.S. They didn't close their schools or business's.

The reason they are padding the deaths with heart attacks and car wrecks is because the mortality rate is going to be so low when the numbers are in, everybody will see through this.

Stay cowered in your house if you are so inclined.

Not me. 

 

 

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21 hours ago, ghost_of_fl said:

 

N.Y.C. Deaths Reach 6 Times the Normal Level, Far More Than Coronavirus Count Suggests

Hmmmmmmmmmmmmm.... 🤔

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/27/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-new-york-city.html

 

All The News That's Fit To Print ...   even the Old Gray Lady gets it !   When they realize 'truth' and 'news' are different concepts. 

Thanks for finding this one Ghost.     

I read that Twitter suspended the accounts of the two Medical Doctor Researchers at Stanford who were the first to publicize this issue, for LA County.    So, two steps forward one step back.  

 

Edit:  Apparently you didn't understand after all,  It's not that deaths are high - it's that cases are low. 

Edited by fortyearspickn

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11 hours ago, fortyearspickn said:
  1. How any of this works?   Well, start with fearful stories of desperate people trapped on cruise ships. Then have a lone epidemiologist predict  2.2million deaths without any basis for it. Then have a UN organization - cozy with China,  WHO, predict a mortality rate of 3.4%.  Next have the NBA halt its season an hour after Trump gives his first speech to the nation on the virus. That becomes the headline - not anything the President said.  Then, within days, have cities like San Francisco declare a lockdown, virtue-signaling the mayors in cities that aspire to be as Progressive. Then have governors who want the Federal Government to underwrite their responses to the virus, report cases and deaths in a mis-leading way, so that the mortality rate would climb from 1% to 5%  (when actual research scientists in at least a half-dozen studies have proved it is  0.1%).
  2. Order businesses to shut down:  Force people to stay in their homes except when going to 'essential services', masked.  Convince people their lives are endangered every time they see someone without a mask.  Direct them to call police on their neighbors for infractions. Use  Drones provided for free by China  to track down people violating the 'lockdowns'.   Get liberal organizations like Face Book to offer their technical expertise to track people.  
  3. Mine the data to show minorities are more affected by the virus.  IE, your susceptibility is due to your race, not your years living an unhealthy lifestyle. .  Blame the President for not focusing on 'the poor and minorities'. 
  4.  Steer millions of the Stimulus $  targeted for Small Businesses  to big ones like the NBA and Harvard.   Celebrate the drop in the Stock Market and the rise in Unemployment and hope they stay unfavorable through November.  
  5. You're Welcome. 

 

Do you people wimper about who's picking on the president while yer fukking?  Jesus H Christ in a tree grow the fukk up.  

rct

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8 minutes ago, Lord Summerisle said:

 

I agree we should protect out vulnerable. How does this work? As I mentioned before, I work at a university with 30,000 students. The prevailing logic of this thread seems to be that they should be back in class right now; in fact, they ought never to have been sent home. They are mostly aged 18-22, so, as the resident physician of the Gibson Guitar Lounge and his fellow travelers can confidently tell us, for most of them COVID-19 is going to be a bit of a sniffle. No biggie. Alright, I'll accept that at face value.

Trouble is, a lot of the people who teach those students range in age from their mid-30s to around 70, plus a few outliers: bright young things who romped through a BA, MA, and PhD by their 27th birthday, and few old crusties in their 80s.

Hum. From the CDC:

Among 508 patients known to have been hospitalized, 9% were aged ≥85 years, 36% were aged 65–84 years, 17% were aged 55–64 years, 18% were 45–54 years, and 20% were aged 20–44 years. Less than 1% of hospitalizations were among persons aged ≤19 years.

(Insert confident attack on the quantitative methodology here - a participant pool of 508? You're having a laugh? Data saturation is never a thing, the more subjects you have, the more valid and reliable your data - right? Er....right? Anyways, the important bit is the fact that young people don't get sick. The data doesn't tell us whether the subjects in the other age groups were in good health, so it's all meaningless. Could've been a cohort of AIDS patients for all we know).

OK, so I'm 43 and in good health. I should just cowboy-up and get back to teaching. My 55 year old colleague in the office next to mine who must tip the scales at 350lbs? Well, if the virus nails him, it's just his bad lifestyle choices that got him. Nothing to do with COVID-19 when you think about it. Professor Obese has been a ticking time bomb for years, probably would have fallen down in the lecture hall with a hemorrhagic stroke sometime soon, anyway.

Or the local people from the city who work cleaning student dorms or serving food or washing plates in the dining hall for thankless wages? Many of them old, many of them suffering from the poverty-induced diseases that seem to blight our modern age, like Type 2 Diabetes. Well, once again, that ain't a COVID-19 issue, is it? We're just back to bad life choices and the need (actually, is there even really a need?) for government to address poverty. In the libertarian utopia of 350 million individuals, it's every man and woman for him or herself. You make your own choices, and there's no room for collectivism here. You got fat and old and diabetic and now have to go to work in an environment where you might catch the disease that won't kill your "customers" but might kill you. No room for crying over spilled milk, here.

The university campus is its own ecosystem. It happens to be the world in which I live and work. The students provide the bulk of its population, but they are not the only members of the campus community. I'm glad we closed down the face-to-face campus for the spring semester.

A special acknowledgement from me to whomsoever can find a Straw Man emoticon to pin to this post.

 

 

Well said.  It's a shame your target audience, the ones that could stand to conceivably "learn" something from it, crazy as that could possibly be, are currently deciphering your cryptographic post into the Trump Hating Manifesto it most surely is.

rct

 

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Looking at this from a different angle:

1.  The shutdown has caused absolute havoc in the stock market.   Can anyone explain to me how Trump and his administration stand to benefit from that in an election year? 

2.  Pretty much ALL medical professionals fully support social distancing/quarantine at this time.   Is the current movement to say we know more about this virus than the medical professionals?   What is the motivation for the entire medical community to get together on this lie?   Or are we saying they are incompetent? 

Note: I do not follow politics directly; I have no loyalty to Trump or whoever is going to run against him.   I have worked in the medical field but now I don't anymore. 

After the quarantine hit, I was considered "essential" staff because I had to help and entire K-12 school district connect remotely and continue working/learning.  That's how you keep your elderly teachers healthy BTW.  Online learning with Google Classroom.   I also spent 2 weeks handing out laptops to the public (face to face).  There have been some people in this thread who think anyone who supports the shutdown is "scared".  Well, there goes that theory.   

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After this post, I'm backing way off on this because I don't really want to spend this much time arguing about it.  But I will say a couple more things.

 

2 hours ago, ghost_of_fl said:

1.  The shutdown has caused absolute havoc in the stock market.   Can anyone explain to me how Trump and his administration stand to benefit from that in an election year? 

 

Trump is backed into a corner.  If he's seen as not doing enough they'll blame him for every single death.  Actually, they already are.  Also, he's largely following the guidance of his medical advisors so he can just say that he did what they advised.

 

2 hours ago, ghost_of_fl said:

2.  Pretty much ALL medical professionals fully support social distancing/quarantine at this time.   Is the current movement to say we know more about this virus than the medical professionals?   What is the motivation for the entire medical community to get together on this lie?   Or are we saying they are incompetent? 

 

How many have you spoken to?  I speak to many all the time.  I've even heard my local Infectious Disease experts express real doubt about all this privately but they won't say a word publicly.  Don't forget that public health experts are political too.  There are many who are brave enough to speak out in many media outlets that you can find, if you look.

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13 hours ago, Black Dog said:

 

Stroke away there jvi.

 if I find life more important than sales and swimming  thats my right -  stroke away...

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