Covid19 How many in your state or country?

[Black Dog]

14 minutes ago, rct said:

 

Thank you and to be very clear:  It is not about my wife.  Sure, that is my deal.  But behind all of the numbers and the seriousness or non-seriousness of it all there are actual, real people that are trying to do stuff just like everyone else.  Everyone else feels great and isn't worried about it and doesn't care. There are 3 or 4 that absolutely have to care for every 10 that don't giveashit.  That's what it's about.

rct

 

I understand.  I also should say that I know I may sound callous talking about death as I do, but I'm a physician and I'm looking at this from that perspective.  I am fully aware that each one of these lives lost is devastating for the person going through it and their families.  I know people are scared and you watch TV and read the news and it seems horrible, and it is.  For people that are vulnerable it has to be very scary.  We are living in different times.  Truth, reality?  That doesn't matter anymore.  Everyone is spinning everything for their own advantage.   Bad times indeed.

Edited April 17, 2020 by Black Dog

[rct]

4 hours ago, Black Dog said:

 

Well, I'm truly sorry that your wife has this condition.  Chronic illness of any sort is horrible and difficult to deal with in many ways.  I hope she gets through all this OK.  Yes, people are very inconsiderate when it come to this kind of thing.  Sadly you have to try to protect yourself from them.  However, all I'm saying is that this shutdown is really harming lots of other innocent people too, up to and including lots of death.  That's a reality too.  You can't just look at one side.

 

The Native American name I use for my Mrs translates very roughly to Wolf Walks With Limp.  I say very roughly because the tragedy there is we don't have the words today to describe a wolf that walks with a limp, the words have been lost to history.

I call her that because we were at our favorite place, a livestock turnout at the very North/East end of Lamar Valley in Yellowstone, that magic place we heard the wolves packing up at 4 am and it was a glorious noise that I recorded but that's another story.

We were out there a bit before dusk, hoping to see who was around.  We had walked out to the creek, pretty far from the cars there, pretty vulnerable to the creek should something big wander along it but we were ok with it for the most part.  And across the creek and up the foothill we saw the pack, just loafing around like wolves do.

An old, thinner, mangier grey male was there, standing still for the most part.  A couple young'uns futzed with him and he turned and moved, with a pretty bad limp in his right front leg.  Death for that kind of animal, and probably soon.  A couple other young wolves had come up from the other side of the creek on their side of the bend.  We couldn't see what they had but it looked like they had managed to catch either an otter or a big muskrat, probably the latter.  I never got a really good look at it in the binocs because...

The young ones were having a ball with it, tossing it back and forth, running and yipping, just happy to be alive and to have food.  The old gray just stood there watching.  Finally the biggest of the youngers brought the muskrat(we think) to the old gray and dropped it, walked back over to where the youngsters were rolling in the grass and grooming each other and play fighting.  They all sat or layed down, probably thirty feet from the gray.  Some yipping from the youngers, they were laying down, rolling, yipping, whining.  We could only hear the top end of stuff, but could fill in what they were doing.

After a little bit, the old gray got down on his belly, used his good front paw to pull in the muskrat, and he set to work eating it.  The healthy, beautiful, wonderful young wolves had given their fairly caught meal to the old, lame, soon to not be of this pack, elder wolf who had probably taught them all much about being wolves.

We were in tears, as were the other 6 or 7 in our area, all watching the same show.  We all agreed that we all wished that if people could be even half as much it would be a better world to die in.

So I call her that in my mangled, fumbled native tongue that I know nothing about.  The words are cobbled together from 4 nations because there aren't enough of any one left for us to know.  But the idea will be there forever.

rct

Edited April 17, 2020 by rct

['Scales]

 Australia 16 April:

21 new cases

Zero deaths

[gdecantoo]

Being older and compromised, I feel like a Rohingyan. 

As far as the statistics go, they are probably accurate but only represent the people who are lucky enough to have access to a test. Still to this day there is a severe shortage of tests. You have to meet several conditions to qualify. If you are absent one of the conditions, no test. I know of a bunch of people that were sick with Flu like symptoms over the past few months but could not get tested because ...well there were no tests. Just my opinion but the number of cases  reported is only half of the true number of actual cases. Same with the number of deaths.

Edited April 17, 2020 by gdecant1

[Murph]

2 hours ago, gdecant1 said:

 Just my opinion but the number of cases  reported is only half of the true number of actual cases. 

 

Which means the death rate will be even LESS than they are saying, and far, far less than they have predicted.

Which were ridiculous.

 

[badbluesplayer]

Thanks everybody for your kind words about my son.  Some of you numbskulls better hope St. Peter didn't die from a coronavirus.

There's lots of people in this world who have to grind their axe every day to make up for their own self hatred.  Some of you guys couldn't think for yourselves to save your lives.  That's why you have to be told what to do every day.  'Cause you can't think for yourself or make it on your own.

All you selfish Einsteins just stay home until your boss tells you to come in to work.  That way you won't kill anybody.  You all don't run the world.  People like my son do.  Y'all just talk.  That's all.  

[jvi]

too many- my sympathy  for all who have loss...and those that will...

[Black Dog]

5 hours ago, gdecant1 said:

Just my opinion but the number of cases  reported is only half of the true number of actual cases. Same with the number of deaths.

 

Every infectious disease expert that I have heard or read think it's at least 10 times the number that are actually testing positive.

[fortyearspickn]

Apparently China  was under-reporting   the number of reported deaths in Wuhan and doubled their count yesterday.   I'm guessing that was politically motivated. 

So - when we hear reports, from Governors, that they are going back to add counts to the Death side of the equation  (deaths/cases) for people who MAY have had CV -it completely invalidates any conclusions or comparisons, either to other states or countries.   But,  they have never included the number of probable but untested cases in their "Case" count.  So they are doing everything they can to make the ratio or Death Rate  higher than it actually is.   And as far as trend lines over time - pfffft!  

When I see the slant ALL the news articles take - now on Fox "CoronaVirus raises concerns for graduating college seniors not able to attend graduation ceremonies"  I become suspicious of the possibility that the old newspaper cliche  "If It Bleeds, It Leads"    is true.   Next story on FOX just now  "NYC  nurse treating CORONAVIRUS patients  beaten and robbed on way home."   While we all know NYC is the center of the universe (after all - that's where all the media headquarters), a story like this would not have made the front page of The Daily News if she had just been treating Flu patients last year.  

At best we are getting conflicting information  (first the CDC said 6 feet distancing, last week they said 13 feet !).  At worst, we are being intentionally mis-informed.  Why does the CDC allow states to decide how they are going to count 'deaths' reported to them for National Reporting and government decision making?  

And, to quell any outrage regarding my comment -   Yes, my wife and I are  in our 70s. She had lung cancer and now is getting radiation for breast cancer.  So we are under virtual 'house arrest'.  If she hadn't been diagnosed in  March - we learned from one of her several doctors yesterday,  hospitals may not have allowed her to be admitted,  because they want to maintain empty beds for the predicted big jump in CV cases in San Antonio.   Predicted by models, politicians and government health department bureaucrats.  So - how many people are being denied care while hospitals keep empty beds open?    How many of them will die?   You can be sure that statistic will be unreported.  

[gdecantoo]

Again, just my opinion but Fox news has been part of the problem in the beginning.  While all the  "fake news media" were sounding the alarm Fox continued to call it a Democratic hoax  telling people  to go  about their business , "It's just the Flu"

 I don't have an MBA but i did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night. This is NOT just the Flu.

In the very recent past Fox had one of their favorites, Kelly Ann Conway, on for an interview bashing the WHO. She said "This is Covid 19 not Covid 1 people. They should know all about this already". This is the kind of genius that is advising the president. OH MY!

Edited April 17, 2020 by gdecant1

[brad1]

6 minutes ago, gdecant1 said:

Again, just my opinion but Fox news has been part of the problem in the beginning.  While all the  "fake news media" were sounding the alarm Fox continued to call it a Democratic hoax  telling people  to go  about their business , "It's just the Flu"

 I don't have an MBA but i did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night. This is NOT just the Flu.

I've been watching the coverage on all of the major 24-hour news stations.  

Fox did no such thing.  That's absurd and just absolutely false. 

BTW, the Mayor of N Y was saying exactly what you are accusing Fox of saying.  I heard him with my own ears.  And so were anchors on the other 24-hour news stations. But then changed their tune later. 

Let's stop the blame game. Please!

[Black Dog]

Yep.  China has been lying from the beginning.   There is no way they've had only 3000 deaths from this.  They were hoping to hide the fact that this virus escaped containment from their lab.  They also knew about human to human transmission very early.  They started secretly buying up PPE all around the world well before they told anyone else about it.  

The death count fraud in the US has only started.  Adding in fake Covid deaths to try to make it seem worse than it is/was.  I also wouldn't doubt it if states will get more money from the feds if they have a higher death count.   When I used to be a primary care doctor, I was always pressured to fill out death certificates and to list a cause of death when I had no idea what they died from.  They would say "well, the guy was 55 years old and there is no evidence of foul play so it must have been a heart attack, right?"  I refused and would always list it as "undetermined" and they hated that.  You know, they use that data for public health purposes and they want you to just make it up?  Garbage in, garbage out.  Unbelievable.

And, BTW, it is the CDC themselves that are advising doctors to list Covid as the cause of death when that has not been established.  

The CDC and the NIH have flipped flopped all over since this whole thing started.  They have been wrong about many, many aspects of this again and again.  The modeling has all been wrong.  

Military field hospitals sit empty around the country.  We have one in my county, it's empty because our hospitals are empty.  They closed the field hospital in Seattle because they never had one single patient.  Even in New York, the last count that I saw for the 1000 bed hospital ship was that they had 64 patients.  They set up the Javits Center for 2500 patients and last count they had less than 100.  And the NY hospitals are not even full.  Cuomo wanted 30,000 ventilators.  He's never had more than 4000-ish patients on vents at any one time in the whole state and he has thousands of ventilators sitting in a warehouse that will never be deployed, but he wants more.

This is all ridiculous.

If you have symptoms of illness, stay home.  If you are vulnerable, stay home.  That's it. 

[Pinch]

People have to read up a little on contagion. First it was "surgical masks won't protect you" (which goes against everything we know about droplet transmission - I called BS), and now it's "cover your face" - and then we have people wearing bandanas one way to going to work, and wearing them the other way going home (inhaling all the lovely microbes they collected that morning). 

It's imperative at this stage that people use a little common sense. If only it weren't so uncommon. 

[Digger]

We’ve had the “You don’t need a mask" story too but then there weren’t any to buy which might have slanted that advice somewhat? What was available was needed by health workers and  quite right they got what was available first. There’s a lesson in what needs to be stockpiled for when things like this inevitably happen again.

OYOH being on an island and more easily being able to control movements seems to be showing results as Victoria only recored one new case of Coronavirus yesterday.

There were many complaints about going in too hard but it seems to be working and the greater good is the higher priority. Long way to go  for all of us yet of course!

Just over 100 years ago the Spanish Flu took some 350 million people, possibly many more as reporting worldwide would have been very incomplete. Some suggest as much as 1/2 a billion souls were lost in that one. It’s suggested that it was 25% of the worlds population in 1918.

 

 

[Mr. Gibson]

7 minutes ago, Digger said:

We’ve had the “You don’t need a mask" story too but then there weren’t any to buy which might have slanted that advice somewhat? What was available was needed by health workers and  quite right they got what was available first. There’s a lesson in what needs to be stockpiled for when things like this inevitably happen again.

OYOH being on an island and more easily being able to control movements seems to be showing results as Victoria only recored one new case of Coronavirus yesterday.

There were many complaints about going in too hard but it seems to be working and the greater good is the higher priority. Long way to go  for all of us yet of course!

Just over 100 years ago the Spanish Flu took some 350 million people, possibly many more as reporting worldwide would have been very incomplete. Some suggest as much as 1/2 a billion souls were lost in that one. It’s suggested that it was 25% of the worlds population in 1918.

 

 

Yep if you go to the old cemeteries around here you find many that died in 1918

[Mr. Gibson]

439 positive  9 deaths. We are doing our best to keep it down, we have just 3 positive in my county.

[fortyearspickn]

7 hours ago, gdecant1 said:

Again, just my opinion but Fox news has been part of the problem in the beginning.  While all the  "fake news media" were sounding the alarm Fox continued to call it a Democratic hoax  telling people  to go  about their business , "It's just the Flu"

 I don't have an MBA but i did sleep at a Holiday Inn Express last night. This is NOT just the Flu.

In the very recent past Fox had one of their favorites, Kelly Ann Conway, on for an interview bashing the WHO. She said "This is Covid 19 not Covid 1 people. They should know all about this already". This is the kind of genius that is advising the president. OH MY!

 

You're getting political.  Again. 

[gdecantoo]

After you sir.

[Pinch]

16 hours ago, Digger said:

We’ve had the “You don’t need a mask" story too but then there weren’t any to buy which might have slanted that advice somewhat? What was available was needed by health workers and  quite right they got what was available first. 

 

 

I agree. 

Still, they shouldn't have downplayed the barrier importance. I see people with scarves covering their mouth and nose only now, after all these deaths. 

[Black Dog]

4 minutes ago, Pinch said:

I agree. 

Still, they shouldn't have downplayed the barrier importance. I see people with scarves covering their mouth and nose only now, after all these deaths. 

 

And not only have they admitted that masks help, some places are making it mandatory.  It is true that it depends on whether you're trying to keep things in vs out, and the type of barrier and how you use it, but yes, they can help, obviously.  

It's funny, all the experts acted like since this was a new  coronavirus, we had no idea how it spreads.  Sure, it was new.  Sure, there were many things we didn't know about it.  But, we have known for a long time how coronaviruses and other respiratory viruses spread.  Some are more contagious, and some more deadly, than others but they spread the same way.

[fortyearspickn]

Yep.  Potential 6 months in jail if caught outside without one here.  (While the real criminals are being freed!)       You would have hoped that the CDC would have known decades ago, based on research - whether an airborne virus spread range was 6 feet or 13 feet.  And an integral part of those studies would have  included the effectiveness  of various masks.  And the FDA would have known decades ago based on research whether viruses could be spread on grocery store packaging - since they just reversed their position on that rather important question.     Hospital Infection Control people  apparently know more than the 'experts'.    Meanwhile, we have The Top Corona Virus Researcher at the National Institute of Health taking every opportunity to claim that the handling of this outbreak is .... racist !    Aren't scientists suppose to withhold judgement until after gathering all the facts and testing hypotheses agains the data?     A city hospital's nurse executive has led an initiative to create home made masks which are more effective than the N-95, using the filter medium from Air Conditioning filters purchased at Lowes.  While the CDC  vacillates:  "We voted against masks before we voted for them."    It's no wonder people are protesting in the streets - even in California.

[Mr. Gibson]

528 positive 9 deaths

[Pinch]

7 hours ago, Black Dog said:

 

And not only have they admitted that masks help, some places are making it mandatory.  It is true that it depends on whether you're trying to keep things in vs out, and the type of barrier and how you use it, but yes, they can help, obviously.  

It's funny, all the experts acted like since this was a new  coronavirus, we had no idea how it spreads.  Sure, it was new.  Sure, there were many things we didn't know about it.  But, we have known for a long time how coronaviruses and other respiratory viruses spread.  Some are more contagious, and some more deadly, than others but they spread the same way.

Exactly. Even the plague doctors wore masks. 

It'll be "interesting" to see whether the antibodies are any good. If not - uh-oh. Of course, I've no idea how specific the tests are yet. Not particularly enamored with fast-tracked vaccines, either. 

Edited April 18, 2020 by Pinch

[Black Dog]

1 hour ago, Pinch said:

Exactly. Even the plague doctors wore masks. 

It'll be "interesting" to see whether the antibodies are any good. If not - uh-oh. Of course, I've no idea how specific the tests are yet. Not particularly enamored with fast-tracked vaccines, either. 

 

In the midst of all this there are anecdotal reports about people getting the infection twice (or at least testing positive twice, whatever that may mean).  It's hard to know what to make of that kind of information at this point. 

Typically, you lose immunity to things like this because over time your immune system's memory response declines, or the virus mutates.  So, there should be at least some short term immunity, but that is not known yet. 

Vaccines are fine but not always as effective as we would like.

[SteveFord]

Since last night +20 in my county, +1628 in the entire state, up 80 deaths state-wide.