Optimism...

[mihcmac]

16 minutes ago, Black Dog said:

And now meat rationing in the US.  Bad times.  Sorry, that's not very optimistic.

Interesting, Non-Meat Eaters are said to be easier to control, hmmm, could be the plan...

[zigzag]

Here's what we do know.

-Covid 19 is very contagious. How contagious? Nobody really knows until more testing can be done. There is a very good chance that many people have a built-in immunity so that many who have the virus never show symptoms... good for those who have it, not so good for many who are exposed to those people.

-Among those who test positive, there appears to be around a 6% mortality rate. For whatever reasons, Blacks, Native Americans, old people, and those with a particular vulnerability, like respiratory issues and diabetes, tend to have a higher mortality rate. 

-Social distancing seems to be fairly effective in reducing the number of cases. Therefore, it would make sense that with increased exposure there will be increased numbers of those who get it and of those who die from it. There is little doubt that if social distancing is relaxed it will result in an upswing of new cases. 

-Until there is a treatment or vaccine, there is no way that the virus will not remain a threat to the health of the general population.

 

[fortyearspickn]

"among those who test positive"       Because of your first statement - 'many who have the virus never show symptoms' - and the fact they are never tested,  the metric  "Those Who Test Positive"  is worthless.  

And, for governors to use it as a basis for calculating a 6% mortality rate  -  is less than worthless.  It is deceptive at best, and politicizing at worst.    

Does the CDC calculate "Child Drownings"  based on how many drowned as a %  of how many child water rescues there were?  Nope. That would be 1,000 per year out of 8,000.  12% - pretty scary.  But it isn't the relevant rate -  "Children Drowned as a % of  the Total Population of Children"  is.    Which would be 1.000 out of approximately 40,000,000 ?   Still a grim statistic. Second leading cause of death for children.  But if the media and the mayor tried telling us to fill our pools with  sand because the rate was 12%  - I'm pretty sure everyone would laugh at them.  And, on another media 'statistic'  they are trying to get us to believe:   Black children are 3x more likely to drown than any other race.  So - is Coronavirus Medical Care racist, but lifeguards aren't ??

[zigzag]

5 hours ago, fortyearspickn said:

"among those who test positive"       Because of your first statement - 'many who have the virus never show symptoms' - and the fact they are never tested,  the metric  "Those Who Test Positive"  is worthless.  

And, for governors to use it as a basis for calculating a 6% mortality rate  -  is less than worthless.  It is deceptive at best, and politicizing at worst.    

 

 

I get your point, but the actual number of people who have died from complications of Covid-19 is relevant and high (doesn't really matter if it's 6% of 2 million or 1%  of 12 million). My points are that it is highly contagious, there needs to be more testing to know who has it, and we should expect to see many more sicknesses and deaths once businesses reopen. I agree the reporting has been over the top, and I'm sick of it, too. That doesn't change the fact that this is a dangerous and devastating virus for slews of people. At the very least, if you have symptoms, you should elect to stay home if you don't elect to be tested. The fact that many have the virus but show no symptoms is even more disturbing for those who are vulnerable.

Edited May 6, 2020 by zigzag

[Black Dog]

9 minutes ago, ghost_of_fl said:

 

Well doctor, it appears to be you vs. the world now. 🤷‍♂️

Gilead in Licensing Talks for Global Remdesivir Production

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/gilead-in-talks-with-chemical-and-pharma-makers-on-global-remdesivir-production?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO&yptr=yahoo

 

And what has changed about the effectiveness of the drug?  Maybe one day there will be good data that it reduces mortality.  If that happens, it'll be great.  Until then you'll just keep yapping I guess.

[mihcmac]

The Oxford Vaccine already in production, latest news says it should be ready in July.

[Lord Summerisle]

19 minutes ago, Black Dog said:

 

And what has changed about the effectiveness of the drug?  Maybe one day there will be good data that it reduces mortality.  If that happens, it'll be great.  Until then you'll just keep yapping I guess.

 

And for once, I'm in full agreement with you. I know this is now in the public consciousnesses because of a movie from a couple of years ago, but the story is much older than that, and very disconcerting:

That article reminds me of many things I have read about the AZT trials in 1985 and 1986, (the "drug that had to work"), and was rushed through its Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials. And it did work, until, as one of the NIH researchers observed, "It turned out to be like Flowers for Algernon."

Short-cuts often seem to lead to false dawns.

 

Edited May 6, 2020 by Lord Summerisle

[fortyearspickn]

51 minutes ago, ghost_of_fl said:

My God, you can't possibly think that's the only thing medication can do.   But let's just say it is.  

A medication that makes people GO HOME FASTER from the hospital means they spend (X) less days around other people who may become infected.   Maybe in the additional day they would have been there in the hospital, they might have infected one person who in turn infected 2 other people.  And so on and so on.  How do you not know that doctor??

 

You've been on this forum for a little over a month.   Have you posted anything related to musical instruments yet? 

[zigzag]

There is a Tyson meat processing plant in Iowa  (IOWA!) where 58% of its employees tested positive... over 700 workers.  I'll bet that's a rocking work force... Almost 900 in one Tyson plant in Indiana.

Edited May 6, 2020 by zigzag
New Data

[Lord Summerisle]

13 minutes ago, fortyearspickn said:

 

You've been on this forum for a little over a month.   Have you posted anything related to musical instruments yet? 

 

By that logic, this thread ought to have been nuked 7 pages ago.

What the hell happened, anyway? I hadn't been here in the best part of a decade, until recently. Once upon a time, the man Nelson/Uncle Al called "Dwayne-us" would show up, briefly and inevitably mention his 1981 Les Paul Deluxe or whatever it was, and swiftly detonate anything vaguely political or related to current events. Is the sand-box self-regulating, these days?

And where the hell is Charlie Brown? Please tell me he's OK and listening to A Hard Day's Night for the 5 billionth time; he's a nice guy.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Lord Summerisle

[Lord Summerisle]

wtf is that? Is that Duane in his glory days trying out for Poison or something?

What happened to Duane?

Edited May 6, 2020 by Lord Summerisle

[Lord Summerisle]

15 minutes ago, ghost_of_fl said:

Look Scooby, another clue! 

http://deallen.net/History.htm

 

45 seconds of my life devoted to scan-reading a (poorly) hand-coded HTML page from the '90s about an '80s hair metal band on the club circuit.

Not my cup of tea, but fair play to those involved for turning a buck out of performing music.

I had no idea Duane was once a "pro," but then as I hadn't otherwise thought about him since 2010, it scarcely matters.

Edited May 6, 2020 by Lord Summerisle

[mihcmac]

6 hours ago, ghost_of_fl said:

one of the most iconic sword fights in movies..

 

[Black Dog]

2 hours ago, ghost_of_fl said:

My God, you can't possibly think that's the only thing medication can do.   But let's just say it is.  

A medication that makes people GO HOME FASTER from the hospital means they spend (X) less days around other people who may become infected.   Maybe in the additional day they would have been there in the hospital, they might have infected one person who in turn infected 2 other people.  And so on and so on.  How do you not know that doctor??

 

You are a complete idiot and you have demonstrated no redeeming characteristics whatsoever. 

[Black Dog]

3 hours ago, Lord Summerisle said:

Short-cuts often seem to lead to false dawns.

 

As I have pointed out about other antivirals like Tamiflu and Relenza.

[Black Dog]

2 hours ago, ghost_of_fl said:

My God, you can't possibly think that's the only thing medication can do.   But let's just say it is.  

A medication that makes people GO HOME FASTER from the hospital means they spend (X) less days around other people who may become infected.   Maybe in the additional day they would have been there in the hospital, they might have infected one person who in turn infected 2 other people.  And so on and so on.  How do you not know that doctor??

 

What I know is what I've been saying for a long time here.   The virus is/has been many, many steps ahead of us the whole time.  That's what viruses do.  All the things we've been doing are too little too late.  It's a folly to think we can beat it in the short run.  In the long run yes, we, or nature, will.   That's the reality of virology.  

[bobouz]

Hello moderators.... do you follow your own rules or ever check to see what’s going on around here?

Rule #18 says No Political Posts.

The politically-tinged BS I’m seeing in this thread is blatant.  Do I have my own strong opinions?  Indeed I do.  Do I think some of the posters here are flaming idiots?  Absolutely.  But politics already surround us daily - Why drag it into this forum?

Moderators, do your job & delete this pathetic mess.

[Black Dog]

Sunset from my house tonight

[ksdaddy]

If I had locked this topic a long time ago, you guys would have complained that you were just having a discussion and I was being too heavy handed.