The state of the vintage guitar market.....

[onewilyfool]

[Red 333]

The Dallas Guitar Show was this weekend. It appeared to me to be the best-attended show in recent memory, despite the $22 admission. I saw several (new) guitars sold at the Fuller's display during the ten or twenty minutes I spent there. I know they sold a Jackson Browne signature model, too, while I was looking around elsewhere. I don't think the dealers were discounting as much as last year, either. It seemed to me that demand was high, and business was good.

 

There were fewer dealer than usual, though, I think.

 

Red 333

[BigKahune]

.

So, are the three year old comments on this video still worth listening to?

 

From what I heard, sounds like the prices are off (of course), but overall, the comments about the market are still pretty good.

[62burst]

Yes, 3 year-old comments... Kind of like the Titanic, 3 minutes before the iceberg.

 

And 20-30 mo.s ago is when the real estate market bubble began to burst. And as discretionary spending, things such

as vintage guitars are in a position a good bit less enviable than that.

 

On the bright side; hopefully the speculators will find guitars less appealing, and allow the players (if they have the confidence in the economy, and their own job security) to finally get that vintage guitar that had been formerly market-driven out of their price range.

[onewilyfool]

Well....Craigslist is kind of a hobby for me.....lol......and I would say the market is very soft for used guitars. If you are trying to sell a guitar for over $2K.....forget it. You better try Ebay, and we are in a fairly well off area here in the Bay area.....I've been trying to sell a couple and basically get ridiculous low-ball offers OR offers for trade (from furniture to oriental carpets, to recording studio time....) So...patience is a must, and I was at the Marin County Vintage guitar show this winter, and there were VERY few sales, as dealers are sitting on their 3 year old inventory they bought before the bubble burst, and can't sell them at those past prices....The dealers I talked to, pretty much echoed what this video is saying. I go to this show twice a year (12 buck admission) and see pretty much the same guitars, same dealers, and same lack of sales. Who knows, Eric Schoenberg pretty much sells every vintage guitar he gets, and has a who's who buyer list, which probably accounts for his success. Mostly it looked like dealers were just trading guitars amongst themselves. I must say, that they had a LOT of beat guitars that they were trying to sell for top dollar...it was pretty pathetic over all....I didn't see any "collector" grade or museum grade guitars.....mostly overpriced "player" guitars, again at top price.

[Rambler]

Well, the thing is well-off can still buy, so that keeps the market afloat. Mainly, tho for serious vintage and boutique oddities. Mid-priced guitars* for mid-class guys?, not so fast.

 

*std series and baseline reissues, like Gibson historics and TVs, Martin vintage series/GE. The boutique reissues (ltd eds, authentics, legends, artist series, made by Ren etc) march on

[Beijing]

I agree with onewilyfool - the market is very soft. I am a private collector who keeps an eye on a variety of sources. A few things I have noticed:

 

1) eBay has a large number of unsold, expensive guitars (probably 80-90% do not sell). I recently did an unscientific survey of completed listings, and despite it being a prime buying season (Christmas), very, very few are selling. Sales are for low-cost, mass-produced, new items.

 

2) Museum quality vintage items are being bumped up in asking prices because there appear to be a large number of "player's" guitars that are being listed for unrealistic prices which are near, or equal to, what the museum pieces should now be going for, in this declining market (IMHO). Few, if any, of the player's guitars sell for the asking price, but it gives an artificial appearance of "value" in the marketplace. From what I have seen over the past couple of years, the actual player's guitar sales are commanding prices at about 2004 levels.

 

3) I think the vintage dealers are not revealing the true nature of the market (like real estate agents who say "yeah, a momentarily soft market"). Frankly, you can't blame them. What I have noticed, however, is that I am now getting a LOT of calls from dealers who have my name on file, and are offering me guitars far below asking. Some are even offering me guitars that other vintage dealers have. Not that terribly long ago, it was me that was making the calls, and few dealers would negotiate.

 

Like any investment in any market, by the time you discover that others have made money it in, it is too late.

[Rambler]

In the words of Mr. D. Bryne. "same as it ever was, same as it ever was, same..."

[onewilyfool]

This post was made last year....and it is only worse.....bottom feeders, lowball offers.....so I've been trading guitars left and right, and have made some good trades, but still, hard for sales.....this too shall pass....

[stein]

Perhaps, perhaps not.

 

I think it will, but I think it will probably be different.

 

I think there are 2 things at play. I think one is the economy in general and what guitars mean to the big picture. When times are tough, "toys" tend to be the first things unloaded by those in need, especially if they are worth some money. So, the market is flooded with guitars.

 

Also, I tend to think we are in something of a market correction. Much of what determined the prices of "vintage" guitars was the idea they would go up in price, and many high prices were paid for that reason alone. The prices went up for the most part because many were buying and paying for the investment in dollars, and many guitars that were not really included in the category ended up in the "vintage" or desirable category. I am thinking the bottom has fell out of THAT theory and pricing method.

 

Add to that, as a whole I think maker have got a lot better at replicating the best of the best vintage examples, and it is no longer needed to buy the real deal to get the older level of quality. I also suspect improvements will continue to be made.

 

I think, as time moves on and these guitars get older and more fragile, well preserved ones will become more valuable as examples, and will eventually be preserved and valued for historical reasons, and as examples of why they were sought after in the first place.

[j45nick]

These are all thoughtful, analytical comments that seem realistic to me, given what I see in the market. I have pretty much given up buying on ebay, as prices seem totally unrealistic. And, as these dealers frankly admit, they have a lot of overpriced guitars that they are essentially willing to sit on until the market comes back. Unfortunately, individual sellers see what dealers are asking and expect to get the same for their own guitars.

 

There is a vast difference between the dealer (retail) market and the individual seller (wholesale) market. Try explaining this to an individual seller with an overpriced guitar that you really would like to buy, however. In the collectibles market--whether it's a vintage guitar or a vintage sports car--the value of any item is the price someone is willing to pay for it at any point in time.

 

My last couple of buys have been off craigslist. One was a pristine "modern" Martin that I bought below asking price, and well below the new street price on the guitar. In fact, he took what I offered, even though he had been turning down the same amount for months.

 

Likewise, I bought My 1947 L-7 off craigslist as a "player", as it was too beat up to be considered a collectible, even though it is structurally very good. I paid half or less compared to the West Coast prices I have seen on the same guitar, which I felt was a realistic price given the condition and the work needed to get the guitar up to snuff as a good player. It was probably one of the only fairly-priced guitars I have looked at recently, but you had to look beyond its obvious flaws to understand its potential.

 

What we see a lot of is "player-grade" vintage instruments being flogged at prices close to what you might realistically expect to pay for a "collector-grade" guitar, and that just won't fly in my book. If you are looking for player guitars, the best values now are probably in modern versions of vintage guitars, which are less likely to have structural problems, and which are reasonably consistent in quality and playability. Examples would be the various modern iterations of Gibson's slope J's, which represent excellent value if you are looking for a musical instrument, rather that a collectible. Gibson has sort of saturated that market, which keeps prices down to realistic levels.

 

I like vintage guitars because of their vibe as much as anything else, but I wouldn't buy one unless I thought it was going to be a good musical instrument. I do look at value and price, as I can't have as much money tied up in guitars as I do without considering their long-term value, even though that is a secondary consideration. At my age (mid-60's), I have the money to indulge my hobby a bit, but if something happens to me--and you think about that more as you get older--I don't want my wife to be stuck with a bunch of unmarketable guitars that have depreciated substantially. For that reason, I'm not playing the $25K guitar game right now. I set around $5K as a maximum price, as long-term value is less of a gamble.

 

Of course, if I find a perfect 1958 Super 400 for under $10K, all bets are off......

[J-1854Me]

I think the only vintage guitars that are defying the downturn currently are top-condition ultra rare pieces.

 

Walk in with an unmolested opaque finish J-35 -- in maple! -- and I think you won't worry about recession so much. But more common guitars with a few repairs and a crack or two, reset neck, replaced bridge, yeah, the market will be soft there.

 

Fred

[Danner]

I agree with onewilyfool - the market is very soft. I am a private collector who keeps an eye on a variety of sources. A few things I have noticed:

 

1) eBay has a large number of unsold, expensive guitars (probably 80-90% do not sell). I recently did an unscientific survey of completed listings, and despite it being a prime buying season (Christmas), very, very few are selling. Sales are for low-cost, mass-produced, new items.

 

2) Museum quality vintage items are being bumped up in asking prices because there appear to be a large number of "player's" guitars that are being listed for unrealistic prices which are near, or equal to, what the museum pieces should now be going for, in this declining market (IMHO). Few, if any, of the player's guitars sell for the asking price, but it gives an artificial appearance of "value" in the marketplace. From what I have seen over the past couple of years, the actual player's guitar sales are commanding prices at about 2004 levels.

 

3) I think the vintage dealers are not revealing the true nature of the market (like real estate agents who say "yeah, a momentarily soft market"). Frankly, you can't blame them. What I have noticed, however, is that I am now getting a LOT of calls from dealers who have my name on file, and are offering me guitars far below asking. Some are even offering me guitars that other vintage dealers have. Not that terribly long ago, it was me that was making the calls, and few dealers would negotiate.

 

Like any investment in any market, by the time you discover that others have made money it in, it is too late.

 

 

You make a lot of sense. The economy is very weak all over the world. That has to drive collectable prices downward. If I was buying, I would be making embarrassingly low-ball offers, and then waiting for sellers to acquiesce. Which I am sure some would.

[j45nick]

You make a lot of sense. The economy is very weak all over the world. That has to drive collectable prices downward. If I was buying, I would be making embarrassingly low-ball offers, and then waiting for sellers to acquiesce. Which I am sure some would.

 

This isn't what OWF wants to hear, but it makes sense in a buyers' market.

[onewilyfool]

This isn't what OWF wants to hear, but it makes sense in a buyers' market.

LOL...that is NOT what I want to hear....lol....but I understand the reality of it all.......

[Rambler]

The economy is very weak all over the world. That has to drive collectable prices downward.

One would think. However, the quite well-to-do (that infamous 1%) pretty much has come through this mess with their shirts intact. They can still play and will pay, as J185me noted, for the right piece: vintage oldies, ltd eds, and boutique goodies. You can still move a Brazilian D28 or Adv. Jumbo from the 30s.

 

Yeh, there are good prices in in the middle income range. Production surged in the 90s, so there is a wee bit of a glut on the market. And many a soul who splurged in the 90s is now unloading. Problem: average folks are watching their pennies and the vintage players dont care about HD28s and Bozeman AJs. It may be a soft market but there is a dearth of players.

[Guth]

I really felt for the guy interviewing the dealers. Looked like he couldn't even afford a bottle of shampoo, let alone an ultra-expensive vintage guitar.