gotomsdos Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Hi, folks I'm outside US. US stores don't ship to outside US. So I'm considering online buying a Gibson J45 TV from an euro store, but the ratio of EURO to USD has been depreciating. I have a credit card with USD primary. How do you think the ratio trend will go? still down or up ? thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slimt Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Im not sure about the money market or how it works.. But I thought the Euro was falling apart? I guess in your situation , it wouldnt matter much.. you buy a guitar from the U.S , pay the shipping, and incur a high tax bill... or buy one there ... is that what your asking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParlourMan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I work in the financial industries, within this area even, so all I would say is that sure trends can lead you to make certain decisions but here's a couple of countering points. Many professionals in this area make gambles every day that wont always pay-off, huge sums can be gained or lost on trend-betting on the FX markets, if you're a casual observer of this do you think you can out-play the pros? or more crudely, how much of a shift gets you to the point of it being cheap enough to strike? The FX markets catch most as they often think "just a little more..." or "as soon as it gets to x.xx% rate, I'll buy/sell" only to still hesitate. The lure of a favourable swing, Add in the fact that we're talking the 'guitar market' here and it is entirely possible you may for some reason want to return the guitar based on preferences or faults and you look at two shipping costs, an import tax and again some questions about fluctuations on the FX rates markets. If it all goes wrong you could have paid two P&P costs, an import tax, and two FX conversion charges only for your refund to be under the original amount. If those potential pitfalls are all added together and you still feel like you'll come out a winner go for it... fortune favours the brave an all that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gotomsdos Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 it wouldnt matter much.. you buy a guitar from the U.S , pay the shipping, and incur a high tax bill... or buy one there ... is that what your asking? I'm outside US. US stores don't ship to outside US. So I'm considering online buying a Gibson J45 TV from an euro store Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParlourMan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Daily/minor fluctuations in FX rates will have little to no bearing on the price of a J-45TV, mate. The prices on the bigger stores like Thomann are what sets the prices, they seem to be selling well and pretty stable around the 2200-2300 mark in the EU, I very much doubt they'll go below that. They don't buy them in single units, as a big Gibson dealer in the EU market Thomann and other places will get shipments containing many models of the series they have chosen to sell, the cost is reflected by what they will have paid (plus the mark-up) and they will sell for a price that respects that, any dip in their favour at a certain time will perhaps increase their mark-up a little but unlikely to be enough ot warrant floating prices based on FX rates. It wouldn't work anyway. For that to work they'd have to be buying/paying in almost real-time scenarios and that's impossible. the guitar they might receive next week could have been from an order 3 or even 6 months ago, maybe even longer in unusual cases. Therefore the price they pay will be on a contractually agreed terms basis, so you have no way of knowing at what stage the bill was settled therefore no way to compare that to FX rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gotomsdos Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 FX rates. Yeap, It's a matter of FX rates The hunting point of EURO to USD I'd like, to me, is down to 1.28. (now 1.31). But I wonder if it will reach it. But I'll get it in just a couple of days, whatever, in the event of its running out of stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blindboygrunt Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 3 cents i'm beginning to worry about you just buy the guitar :-D Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gotomsdos Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 i'm beginning to worry about you ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParlourMan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 While I understand your point, I don't think it makes much of a difference. Gibson is a global company and as such will have bases and administrative places in each of the markets, US, EU, asia etc... as such it means deals can be brokered for little to no currency conversions involved. When you factor that in and bigger dealers having rolling contracts the prices are probably set for agreed durations and renegotiated periodically at suitable rates for both parties, this leaves the dealer/retailer at a point where they can calculate their costs, overheads and ultimately their selling price. This is why you only see adjustments in price once or twice in a year (if you're unlucky). FX rates would only really apply with any significant effect if you were buying from a US dealer and importing, you would probably still come off a little better off, but as you say many or most wont ship outside the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Del Nilppeznaf Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Goto, also, the exchange rate you are looking at will not be the rate you receive. What ever company finances your Cc will determine the rate, and in my experience it is always in their favour. The US dollar is not so strong at the moment also, it's got to do with the Chinese :) If you want the guitar now you should go for it, I wouldn't expect any major benefits regarding ex' rates in the short term. Thomman is your best bet I would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EuroAussie Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Theres' a J-45TV thats just been announced for sale by Mulausk for a gret price, could be your anwser ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gotomsdos Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 While I understand your point, I don't think it makes much of a difference. Gibson is a global company and as such will have bases and administrative places in each of the markets, US, EU, asia etc... as such it means deals can be brokered for little to no currency conversions involved. When you factor that in and bigger dealers having rolling contracts the prices are probably set for agreed durations and renegotiated periodically at suitable rates for both parties, this leaves the dealer/retailer at a point where they can calculate their costs, overheads and ultimately their selling price. This is why you only see adjustments in price once or twice in a year (if you're unlucky). FX rates would only really apply with any significant effect if you were buying from a US dealer and importing, you would probably still come off a little better off, but as you say many or most wont ship outside the US. Thank you ! Besides EURO, the EURO store provides foreign currency sum such as USD etc on its site, for us to choose, i.e. converted already, the price has been changed 2 times in a couple of these days... so I'm waiting a few days to see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gotomsdos Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Goto,... Thank you Del Nilppeznaf ! The EURO store directly provides USD sum as well for us to choose. Both the rate of EURO - my country money and that of USD - my country money have been going down these days.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gotomsdos Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Theres' a J-45TV thats just been announced for sale by Mulausk for a gret price, could be your anwser ... Thank you old buddy EuroAussie ! It's a good price, but I wouldn't like heavy pickup in a VINTAGE WOOD. I've got a kk mini in my martin HD-28, that's all. Gibson J45 TV or the like is light weighted, great feature, I wouldn't like to lose it. It may be a great opportunity for a J45 TV buyer who wants a pickup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParlourMan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 A pickup system and a battery are not going to add very much weight, but, each to their own.... good luck with the hunt for the perfect j45TV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j45nick Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Waiting to buy a guitar based on fluctuations in exchange rate is a losing proposition. Although I live in the US, most of my contracts are overseas, and are primarily euro-based. I've had to develop a fatalistic approach about it. The dollar/euro ratio has fluctuated over about a 15% range in the last year, and continues to be volatile. Currency trading is second only to commodities futures when it comes to risk, and that's when professionals are doing it. The only time it has paid off for me is buying currency futures contracts when the trajectory of a currency is pretty clear, and frankly, that's been more good luck than smarts on my part. In any case, you can't worry about the spot price of a currency, because that's not the rate you are going to get when you do a credit card transaction. Most cards charge a foreign currency transaction fee of up to 1.5%, before you even get into the actual conversion rate. You will be lucky if at the end of the day the rate you get is within 5% of the spot price on that day when you add up all transaction costs. Rather than wait, hoping the exchange rate swings in your favor, find the best guitar you can, and buy it. The extra time you get with the guitar from buying it sooner rather than later will quickly make you forget whether it cost you an extra $100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParlourMan Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Waiting to buy a guitar based on fluctuations in exchange rate is a losing proposition. Although I live in the US, most of my contracts are overseas, and are primarily euro-based. I've had to develop a fatalistic approach about it. The dollar/euro ratio has fluctuated over about a 15% range in the last year, and continues to be volatile. Currency trading is second only to commodities futures when it comes to risk, and that's when professionals are doing it. Sounds like we're in a reasonably similar line of business and I certainly wouldn't argue against your points here. The only time it has paid off for me is buying currency futures contracts when the trajectory of a currency is pretty clear, and frankly, that's been more good luck than smarts on my part. Spot-on. You will be lucky if at the end of the day the rate you get is within 5% of the spot price on that day when you add up all transaction costs. Yes, what Nick said..... Rather than wait, hoping the exchange rate swings in your favor, find the best guitar you can, and buy it. exactly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blindboygrunt Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 i hope i dont see a troll lurking here but ... heres and idea . buy the guitar with the pickup , take the pick up out , put pick up on ebay or give it to charity or throw it in the bin ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gotomsdos Posted February 2, 2012 Author Share Posted February 2, 2012 Most cards charge a foreign currency transaction fee of up to 1.5% Thank you j45nick ! The EURO store I'd like to buy from provides USD sum as well for us to make an order, so no transaction fee charged by my CC issuer. my CC primary is USD. my country money is XX I compare 2 methods: a, pay EURO. that's EURO to USD (with a transaction fee 1.5%), then USD to XX. b, pay USD. that's USD to XX (no transaction fee 1.5%) b is cheaper than a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisA83 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Anyone else getting bored of these posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulausk Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 i hope i dont see a troll lurking here but ... heres and idea . buy the guitar with the pickup , take the pick up out , put pick up on ebay or give it to charity or throw it in the bin ?? Now we're talking... ;) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fortyearspickn Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 "I'm holding off on buying an SJ300 until the price of coffee beans goes down in Sumatra at a rate greater than grapes on the vine futures go up in Texas." Seriously, I really started having a hard time understanding these constant 'what about this?' posts going in a hundred different directions at once a month ago. Maybe you got there before me though, BBG :) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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