[Modern Gibson investments?]

I think everyone's been gobsmacked by the increase in value in '58-60 Les Paul Standards. Remember two things: one' date=' Gibson made only around 1700 of them, then stopped. Two, they became valuable not because COLLECTORS were buying them, but because well known MUSICIANS were.

 

Collectibility seems to be contagious: look at Cabbage Patch dolls, Dutch tulips, '57 Chevrolets. Every one these fads has a common outcome: a lot of people spent a lot of money which could not be recouped once the market collapsed. And, I'll bet, every one of the collectors was sure that the market would forever go up. You could add dotcoms and credit default swaps to the list -- the capacity for greed and self-deception is inherent in us.

 

So the LP Standards increased in value. Many horse traders took note, and started promoting "old" guitars as "vintage." Currently it's the conventional wisdom that something old is something valuable, but that is not the case*. A guitar has an intrinsic value, which may be defined as what it is worth to the owner, or conversely what it would be cost to replace.

 

There will never be more than roughly 1700 Les Paul Standards from the late fifties-early sixties. No doubt, many have been altered, butchered, mutilated, destroyed or otherwise taken out of circulation permanently. If you are a dealer, what do you do? All the bursts are spoken for, essentially, and you know it's highly unlikely you'll ever find another; so you do the sensible thing (sensible, that is, for a dealer) and start flogging the crap. This explains why LP Jrs are going up in value: they (and various other inexpensive models) are what's left. This promotion then becomes the accepted norm, and pretty soon junk that no one in his right mind would have bought when they were new is being bid to high figures on eBay.

 

I saw a Norlin Les Paul Deluxe not too long ago listed for $9K. I bought my '70 for $750. There are two responses to those two facts: one is to say, damn! I'm gonna put my up on eBay and get rich! The other, which is my own, is to say, "that's nuts." Or, more accurately, wishful thinking. Someone once said that vintage guitars are priced according to the "biggest fool" theory: what would the biggest fool pay for this thing? Sometimes that strategy works, but sooner or later one finds that oneself has been the biggest fool.

 

Owners of modern Les Pauls, certain that lightning is going to strike in precisely the same place once again, think they are making investments. Does anyone know how many LPs have been churned out in the last 24 years, when Henry J took over? I venture to say, more than 1700. Another forum that I frequent had people list their Les Pauls, with a running total. The last I looked, it was going on 4000 -- and those are only the ones in the hands of that relatively small group. Would a '57 Chevrolet Bel Air be more valuable if GM started manufacturing reproductions (OK, I know that can't happen)? And what about the value of the repros -- how many old guys (the only ones who really care about the '57s, these days) would buy one? The guys in the right age bracket who want one either have the real thing, or they are dead. Before long, Les Pauls will once again be old fashioned, which is one of the reasons they were dropped by Gibson in 1960.

 

So buy a guitar that you love to play, and forget about "investment." You may never cash out; but if you buy to play, you'll get satisfaction every time you pick it up.

_______

* Here's a short anecdote: a guy I knew years ago grew up in the thirties, and had become one of the serious post-WWII hot rodders. When I knew him, he was running a '29-A roadster on '32 rails with a small block Chevy at the drag races. One day, someone came into the garage with a meti****usly restored 1925 Model T. Naturally, everyone made a big fuss over it. My friend snorted and said, "Damn things were no good when they were new."[/quote']

 

+ALOT

[Modern Gibson investments?]

I think you won't loose a dime if you sell them in 10 years time. Sell them before that and you will' date=' after that, I think worst case scenario, you'll break even. The cost of new ones will go up and used prices will follow.

 

Unless I am mistaken, a brand new R9 was around $3,500 around the year 2000. Now that's a good price on a used one. Today, those older R9s are worth what they cost brand new simply because new R9s have skyrocketed in price. I'm sure prices will continue to go up over the years (if Gibson is still around) and as new prices continue to go up, so will used.[/quote']

 

Gibson's not going anyware. ; )

[Modern Gibson investments?]

A musical instrument is NOT an investment. Period.

I'll buy a guitar because it's limited edition(300 made, like the hot rod LP), but I refuse to buy a guitar, let it sit in the case for 50 years, and then sell it. THAT, is an investment, and a waste of a beautiful instrument.

As long as you play that good old Hot Rod, I guess you can buy it.

 

I have no problem with Limited Edition guitars, but people need to play them. You gotta give it at least a few "battle scars".

when people buy them just 'cause they'll be worth $400,000 someday... Sigh...Tsk Tsk, what'a waste.

[Lyre Vibrola tailpiece]

AMEN!

 

I'm too busy playing to measure milliseconds worth of sustain difference' date=' so it's all good to me.

 

No sustain problems HERE either:

 

[img']http://i26.photobucket.com/albums/c102/hbomb76/Guitars/100_0247.jpg[/img]

 

H-Bomb

 

 

Aw, man. Now I want a custom.

[Dead spot on F# common on SG´s?]

Zero Dead Spots on Mine. Hopefully none is the future.

[Early Strings]

 

That would make sense' date=' remember guys, originally they were meant for jazz, so most probably they were also flat (damn, I hate those flat strings).[/quote']

 

Yup. Les paul was a jazz guy.

[[ Sticky ] How to post photos]

nice!! now we dont have to explain anymore!