onewilyfool Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 Hey guys and gals.....It may be my imagination, but it feels like the guitar market (at least here in N. California) is softening quite a bit. I see the same guitars listing and selling for less....spending a MUCH longer time on Craig's list, even EvilBay seems to be slowing down, just wondered what the market is like in your neck of the woods.....might be a lot of bargains out there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zeebee Posted September 16, 2008 Share Posted September 16, 2008 I recently spoke with a fellow who traded 150 "vintage" guitars over the past 14 months and who claims the market has cracked particularly in the high end. Now granted he trades primarily electrics however, theres no reason to doubt similair forces are at work across the industry. Quantifying the high end market as having fallen as much as 30 -40% for certain hardbodies, he refers to Ebay as a "ghost town" and, went on to state the sub $5K is beginning to show weakness. These be interesting times me thinks, the $million dollar questions being how low and how long? Hmmm while on the topic of Ebay.....a short sell might be a promising hedge as I'm sure that the slowdown will touch most discretionary items. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ballcorner Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 It is inevitable that the used and vintage markets will drop substantially due to overproduction of new guitars (especially by Martin) and dying interest in nostalgia as the guitar playing demographic gets younger and interested in different things. It is also true that Chinese manufacturing has lowered the value expectation on many brands. Where you can get a solid wood Guild made in China with hide glue and a pick up for $1000 - why would you want to pay $1200 for a used Guild that was made in the US 15 years ago? The same is true for Gretsch - you can buy the Chinese archtop and switch up the pickups and pots for about $300 and end up paying less than half price for a great guitar. The used and vintage markets are driven by the same conditions other commodity markets succumb to - supply and demand. Where there is a constant flow of available used instruments, and where manufacturers are tossing thousands more on the pile every week that are superior quality at a reduced price, it is understandable that many people are thinking twice before investing in an older guitar. I have several collector pieces, but most were acquired in the late 1990s. So, it is unlikely that I will ever lose on my original investments - but if I did sell everything today, I would expect no more than 60% of current book values - values I expect will drop another 15% in the next year. A 57 strat is always going to be worth money, but as populations shift there are fewer people with enough interest to buy that instrument - all of whom will be looking for a deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jannusguy Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 i've got a couple of mine for sale locally to offset the cost of a new addition that's due to arrive today. they are very fairly priced and reflect what, i think, the current market will bear. a guy came by on sunday to "kick the tires" and after an hour and a half of jabbering and picking he began to wax philosophical about the depressed used guitar market. i'm thinking, oh boy, here it comes and, of course, it did. i sent him and his meager offer packing. luckily, i'm not forced to sell and can wait for awhile if need be. i imagine it could be quite awhile though as things are tough out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksdaddy Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 My "play money" has been money generated from ebay sales of ... well, about anything I think I can make a buck on, but mostly stripping motorcycles. In 1999 I stripped a $40 Honda and made over $400. There have been times since then I have stripped $100 bikes and made $1500. Lately I buy a bike for $100 or $150 and I'm lucky to gross $250. Yes, it's profit when you look at the simple math but not when you figure my time. For that reason I've been backing off the used bike market and consequently buying less guitars. I don't even remember what the last guitar I bought was. In fact I'd like to shed some of my "lesser" guitars and if I recouped my money I'd be doing well. I've been buying a few basket case violins on ebay but I'm being cautious.... if they want $25 shipping then I had better get the violin for $15 or less. And that's mainly for my own enjoyment... I'd NEVER make a profit on those violins. Unless you count the charitable deduction when I donate them to needy schools. Overall the finances are bad and I'm being careful what I spend money on. A lot more thought goes into it and a lot fewer impulse purchases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taylor Player Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 I think because of Ebay and Criagslist along with the sheer number of small luthier's out there trying to make a buck now, the answer is yes, the market for used guitars is soft and there are real deals to be found. My new Legato would easily cost over $3500 to have the builder make it for me today. I confirmed this with the luthier personally after buying it used on Craigslist for a fraction of that amount. Granted, I had watched the ad when it started high and worked it's way down over the course of a few weeks. College kid was selling it to pay for school and a new nintendo system! Go figure.... I told the kid he would kick himself in a few years for selling it but, his loss was my gain! I love my Legato and the luthier has pretty much said he will treat me as if I were the original owner since the guitar is only a couple years old. I could not have afforded to have one custom made by the Luthier, but now I have one of his creations due to the soft market and the necessity of having video games at college! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 I don't think the production of new guitars has much to do with the current soft market for vintage. I would bet more on the financial meltdown going on in the stock/real estate market as a likely cause. People aren't as inclined to make purchases of a discretionary nature after seeing their portfolio drop 20% or more. (I know that I certainly feel that way!) The guys I know who buy vintage guitars have little to no interest in new guitars-- whatever the price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawgadi Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 I don't think the production of new guitars has much to do with the current soft market for vintage. I would bet more on the financial meltdown going on in the stock/real estate market as a likely cause. People aren't as inclined to make purchases of a discretionary nature after seeing their portfolio drop 20% or more. (I know that I certainly feel that way!) The guys I know who buy vintage guitars have little to no interest in new guitars-- whatever the price. I think that's the only thing that's changed recently. The market has been flooded with guitars for years. The economy has only tanked recently. My conversations with 2 local dealers have them thinking 100% economy. Interestingly, the one thing they can move and move quickly is vintage. People seem to regard it as a safe place to "invest" some of their guitar money, knowing that they can (probably) move it for no loss in the future. Old brazilian is apparently flying off the shelves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajsc Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 It's the same with the housing market. It's a good time to buy, but, not a good time to sell!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honky Dog Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 I think that's the only thing that's changed recently. The market has been flooded with guitars for years. The economy has only tanked recently. My conversations with 2 local dealers have them thinking 100% economy. Interestingly' date=' the one thing they can move and move quickly is vintage. People seem to regard it as a safe place to "invest" some of their guitar money, knowing that they can (probably) move it for no loss in the future. Old brazilian is apparently flying off the shelves.[/quote'] I have to agree with you and Hoss. This is my perception on why many sectors are soft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Honky Dog Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 It's the same with the housing market. It's a good time to buy' date=' but, not a good time to sell!![/quote'] That's true, Paul, if you're not selling AND buying. If you're selling AND buying, it doesn't make much difference unless the price differential between what you sell and what you buy is large. If you're just selling, ouch. But like you say a good time to buy, and in my opinion a great time to invest in real estate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mooseguy Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 I would advise any one interested in the vintage and not so vintage guitar market to keep an eye on the Oct.10th. Christie's fine instrument auction-lots of Martins and electrics. this sale should be a fairly good indicator of the present state of this segment of the guitar market. Moose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rosewoody Posted September 17, 2008 Share Posted September 17, 2008 I went into two local Guitar Centers over the weekend--a like new J-45 was $1299, S Crow $1299, mintish AJ $1499, two J1ooX $1295 (new), Songwriter Deluxe almost LN at $(999), minty Martin Marquis D28, $2499. This is before any negotiating, which usually knocks another chunk off. These prices seem to reflect new economic realities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
onewilyfool Posted September 17, 2008 Author Share Posted September 17, 2008 Rosewoody....those are some pretty good prices on Gibbys.....I think you are all right....it is soft....and people don't have as much cash as they used to. Thank god, we are not holding on to a lot of Korean stuff....By the way, lately, I've had a lot of good "trade ups" where the guitar I traded for was worth more or was better quality than the guitar I was trading. So that is one way to increase equity. In a lot of cases, the buyer contacted me with the offer!!!! So horse trading may be a possibility if you want to move guitars.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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