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Missing plane


LarryUK

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This is too weird and too much of a coincidence.

There is some bad ju-ju in the skies over Indonesia.

Something huge and catastrophic happens to the plane because the pilots have no time to radio a may-day distress call. At least the news isn't saying there was a may-day.

 

My prayers for the innocent victims, alive, or dead, and their families.

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Makes you wonder if there's a link to the North Korean Internet thing and if any of the Chinese launched communications satellite killers are doing some sort of jamming thing at their behest or the possible collaborative free use by NoKo...

 

Yes it is rather mysterious but rings more dubious to me...

 

Being under the false-premised misplaced belief that we are safe anywhere in the world in this day and age of popularity and apology world tours of our current self-loathing administration, it's no wonder the world is a much unsafer place than in years past...

 

I also believe that we have done such a good job of destruction of terrorist infrastructure in a decade of The War On Terror that they've now adapted and their own guerrilla tactics is now pared with rogue agents of minimal social structure or group numbers that will carry-out such things with little or no fanfare that at times even deep investigation won't make a solid connection to the terrorist organizations that have inspired them to act in such ways...

 

The world ain't as soft and safe as political operatives want us to believe so we will subscribe to their Utopian fantasy that keeps them in power...

 

Yes it is horrific and tragic and anyone affected by such a happening has had an existential trauma inflicted upon them. They have my thoughts, prayers, and condolences!

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Enroute tracking over great distances, like ocean, is done by time and verbal reporting along a set route. There are a certain amount of waypoints along the set route that the pilot has to figure out how to get to (easy with inertial navigation and now satelite navigation). He also has to report to the enroute controller when he'll be there. Example..."Jakarta Control, Speedbird 59 Heavy is 'MARKAM' at this time, maintaining Flight Level 380 (FL380 or 38,000 feet) - 'DARNIL' at 27". This means that firstly he's in Jakarta's enroute control's airspace so he has to do his report to them. Next he's telling them he is at one of the waypoints on the set route right now (say minute 43) and that he is flying at and staying at 38,000 feet. The last bit means, the next waypoint along the route he'll be there at minute 27 and that Jakarta Controll should expect him to report to them then. You only have a buffer of plus/minus two minutes. They don't hear from you within that time, then they get upset and worried and start calling you. It's all on the flight plan and the controller has a copy. If at any time while flying along the route and between waypoints, you re-figure out what the tail wind or head wind component is and it's different to what you first thought, and by your calculations, your now not going to make the next waypoint when you told them, you have to call them up and tell them when you'll now be there. Example..."Jakarta Control, Speedbird 59 Heavy DARNIL now at minute 35".

So that's how they keep a track of everyone, and know they're OK. Now, the region these aircraft have disapeared in.

 

It's the equatorial belt (meaning around 0 degrees latitude). The tropics. Now, summertime within this region is known as "the wet season". Very hot, very rainy. Including King Cloud. Cb, cummulous nimbus. Or, thunderstorm cloud. These things have the power to tear anything apart, including aeroplanes. This time of year, this region, airspace wise, is like trying to sail a yatch down the roaring forties in winter! Very bumpy, very uncomfortable, and very dangerous. They have a particulaly nasty habit of being about a dozen of them at at time, all lined up like pickets in a fence. You see them in front of you, or pick them up on the weather radar, Cb's, you have to deviate around them. The standard way is to do what's called a '60/60 off track turn'. This means you get no closer than say twenty miles from the thunder heads (or you'll be within their sphere of influence), and you turn say left 60 degrees. Go about 15 minutes along this new heading until your abreast of the cloud, and then turn 120 degrees right for the same ammount of time until your onboard nav system tells you you about to cross the enroute track again, and you turn left 60 degrees and bingo, your around the thunderheads and back on track. You have to report to the air traffic controller (enroute controller) what you are doing because he can't see you, there's no ground to air radar out there.

 

So, that's how they track them, and that's what the area is like. As to what's happened to them, well, I can, even as a retired Captain, only speculate along with everyone else. It's either aircraft malfunction, pilot error, or weather related, or any combination to those three. I know this next statement might seem harsh but, us westerner pilot's call those airlines with non-western crews, "Inshala Airlines". I personaly wouldn't fly with them for all the tea in India. If it's not good 'ol American Metal under my ar$e (Boeing, McDonald Douglas), I don't go. I have flown 727,737,747,757,767, and 777 along with French Airbus 300,310,320,330,and 340, and I know what I prefer. As a pilot and a passenger.

 

You are now ready to solo! (I want to see three good touch and go's lad - or I'll downgrade you on your next report, cadet!). lol

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Enroute tracking over great distances, like ocean, is done by time and verbal reporting along a set route. There are a certain ammount of waypoints along the set route that the pilot has to figure out how to get to (easy with inertial navigation and now satelite navigation). He also has to report to the enroute controller when he'll be there. Example..."Jakarta Control, Speedbird 59 Heavy is 'MARKAM' at this time, maintaining Flight Level 380 (FL380 or 38,000 feet) - 'DARNIL' at 27". This means that firstly he's in Jakarta's enroute control's airspace so he has to do his report to them. Next he's telling them he is at one of the waypoints on the set route right now (say minute 43) and that he is flying at and staying at 38,000 feet. The last bit means, the next waypoint along the route he'll be there at minute 27 and that Jakarta Controll should expect him to report to them then. You only have a buffer of plus/minus two minutes. They don't hear from you within that time, then they get upset and worried and start calling you. It's all on the flight plan and the controller has a copy. If at any time while flying along the route and between waypoints, you re-figure out what the tail wind or head wind component is and it's different to what you first thought, and by your calculations, your now not going to make the next waypoint when you told them, you have to call them up and tell them when you'll now be there. Example..."Jakarta Control, Speedbird 59 Heavy DARNIL now at minute 35".

So that's how they keep a track of everyone, and know they're OK. Now, the region these aircraft have disapeared in.

 

It's the equatorial belt (meaning around 0 degrees latitude). The tropics. Now, summertime within this region is known as "the wet season". Very hot, very rainy. Including King Cloud. Cb, cummulous nimbus. Or, thunderstorm cloud. These things have the power to tear anything apart, including aeroplanes. This time of year, this region, airspace wise, is like trying to sail a yatch down the roaring forties in winter! Very bumpy, very uncomfortable, and very dangerous. They have a particulaly nasty habit of being about a dozen of them at at time, all lined up like pickets in a fence. You see them in front of you, or pick them up on the weather radar, Cb's, you have to deviate around them. The standard way is to do what's called a '60/60 off track turn'. This means you get no closer than say twenty miles from the thunder heads (or you'll be within their sphere of influence), and you turn say left 60 degrees. Go about 15 minutes along this new heading until your abreast of the cloud, and then turn 120 degrees right for the same ammount of time until your onboard nav system tells you you about to cross the enroute track again, and you turn left 60 degrees and bingo, your around the thunderheads and back on track. You have to report to the air traffic controller (enroute controller) what you are doing because he can't see you, there's no ground to air radar out there.

 

So, that's how they track them, and that's what the area is like. As to what's happened to them, well, I can, even as a retired Captain, only speculate along with everyone else. It's either aircraft malfunction, pilot error, or weather related, or any combination to those three. I know this next statement might seem harsh but, us weterner pilot's call those airlines with non-western crews, "Inshala Airlines". I personaly wouldn't fly with them for all the tea in India. If it's not good 'ol American Metal under my ar$e (Boeing, McDonald Douglas), I don't go. I have flown 727,737,747,757,767, and 777 along with French Airbus 300,310,320,330,and 340, and I know what I prefer. As a pilot and a passenger.

 

You are now ready to solo! (I want to see three good touch and go's lad - or I'll downgrade you on your next report, cadet!). lol

 

Very cool personal experience information!

 

I've always been interested in aviation but never put myself in a position to follow my heart in life and always ended up finding a job to pay my bills rather than making a career out of something I loved to do!

 

I also didn't mention my simply suspicions that such pacific-rim airlines may not have the best maintenance practices or training and support and such a lack of follow-thru by the controlling entities may well have contributed to these "mysterious" losses...

 

It's like watching footage of the South American coach busses traveling the mountain roads in The Andes Mountains... (and then they tell you how many people die of busses going off the road and rolling down the mountain gorges)

 

You know it ain't as safe or secure as riding on either well maintained American interstate highways nor are they as well maintained (or built) and drivers aren't as well trained as say Greyhound, Trailways, or Peter Pan bus lines here in The States...

 

We take alot of transportation safety for granted here in The States for sure... Every time I watch footage of a train in India with hundreds of passengers riding on the roof I realize that our own DOT (Department Of Transportation) here in The States would not only never allow that, but simply for suggesting such a thing one would be tossed in a mental psych ward or asylum for the mere idea...

 

We get to enjoy a standard bar of things that are uncommonly deluxe luxury and are simply not the same across the globe...

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I've had many close encounters so to speak. From having to try to land an F4 Phantom in Hawaii with two sick engines, to my mate and I having to nearly eject from our F-18 home in Oz when it went squirrelly on us, to stopping a spinning 8 ton helicopter from hitting the ocean in the Persian Gulf during DS2. Many engine shut-down's along the way, just another day at the office. That's just aircraft problems. Then there's the human factor. Flying a twin huey (B212) balls out ten feet above the ground into a full pitch battle to pull out the wounded while getting shot at (and some of those rounds hitting), to having when as a senior co-pilot in a helicopter, having to deal with a full on may-day emergency while the Captain next to me went to jelly! But that's what kept it all interesting, and kept me comming back for more I suppose. There was always upsides to it too. Like flying three gorgeous, butt naked, stripper/barmaids in a helicopter offshore to some Islands off the WA coast! Can't tell me that wasn't fun! lol

I've personaly never had anything I reported go against me with senior management, but it used to happen yes, most definitely. But a thing called Crew Resource Management has gone a long way to eliminating that negative culture. My personal belief was, it's my ar$e up here so I'm going to do what-ever it takes to save it and senior management be damned. I'll deal with them later... right now, I'm kinda busy! lol

 

Yeah...I had a ball! [thumbup]

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I've had many close encounters so to speak. From having to try to land an F4 Phantom in Hawaii with two sick engines, to my mate and I having to nearly eject from our F-18 home in Oz when it went squirrelly on us, to stopping a spinning 8 ton helicopter from hitting the ocean in the Persian Gulf during DS2. Many engine shut-down's along the way, just another day at the office. That's just aircraft problems. Then there's the human factor. Flying a twin huey (B212) balls out ten feet above the ground into a full pitch battle to pull out the wounded while getting shot at (and some of those rounds hitting), to having when as a senior co-pilot in a helicopter, having to deal with a full on may-day emergency while the Captain next to me went to jelly! But that's what kept it all interesting, and kept me comming back for more I suppose. There was always upsides to it too. Like flying three gorgeous, butt naked, stripper/barmaids in a helicopter offshore to some Islands off the WA coast! Can't tell me that wasn't fun! lol

I've personaly never had anything I reported go against me with senior management, but it used to happen yes, most definitely. But a thing called Crew Resource Management has gone a long way to eliminating that negative culture. My personal belief was, it's my ar$e up here so I'm going to do what-ever it takes to save it and senior management be damned. I'll deal with them later... right now, I'm kinda busy! lol

 

Yeah...I had a ball! [thumbup]

I meant the 'UFO' kind.

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Inshala Airlines... [laugh]

A few years ago I was flying from Cairo to Geneva. The plane was a 737 I believe, but not like any of the (many) I had flown on before. I'd guess early 70's by the fixtures and fittings. Like most around me, my Business Class seat was held together by gaffer tape and my entertainment system consisted of several audio channels of local wailing 'tunes'. The best moment was when the announcement soon after take-off came though which ended in what approximated...

"...and we'll be landing in Geneva in 90 minutes... inshala (God willing)" [scared]

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North Korean communists have the support of super evolved aliens in bending space and time.

Stuff is disappearing all around us and we couldn't care less.

 

God will reward the aliens for our complacency.

 

None of this would be a problem today if LBJ didn't mortgage the nation's soul to the aliens to help us create the illusion that we got to the moon.

 

My WS (Weird $hit)monitor is in the red zone right now.

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I meant the 'UFO' kind.

 

 

lol...sorry. Well, I wasn't a philosopher, I was an engineer. If I couldn't see, touch, hear, taste or smell it, I didn't believe in it. I don't believe in UFO's as such, yet I don't disbelieve them either. I prefer to keep an open mind about a lot of things, those included.

I did however see something odd one night. Not little green men but something definitely not right. Too long to explain here.

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Inshala Airlines... [laugh]

A few years ago I was flying from Cairo to Geneva. The plane was a 737 I believe, but not like any of the (many) I had flown on before. I'd guess early 70's by the fixtures and fittings. Like most around me, my Business Class seat was held together by gaffer tape and my entertainment system consisted of several audio channels of local wailing 'tunes'. The best moment was when the announcement soon after take-off came though which ended in what approximated...

"...and we'll be landing in Geneva in 90 minutes... inshala (God willing)" [scared]

 

 

LOL! Yeah, that's where the term originated from. They said "God willing...", we said "I will". Big difference in attitude. And sometimes it was only that and balls that pulled you through.

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North Korean communists have the support of super evolved aliens in bending space and time.

Stuff is disappearing all around us and we couldn't care less.

 

God will reward the aliens for our complacency.

 

None of this would be a problem today if LBJ didn't mortgage the nation's soul to the aliens to help us create the illusion that we got to the moon.

 

My WS (Weird $hit)monitor is in the red zone right now.

 

 

ahhh.....NURSE?

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Well, it didn't take long. Report this morning was Australian Air Force found wreckage and bodies on the surface, just west of Bornio. Only 16km from their last report. Tha's only about 9 mile.

 

From 38,000 feet down to the ocean in only 9 mile is a very short space for a 320-200. Near vertical in fact. That was no power off glide. Power cruise about 8 mile a minute. Power off about 4 mile a minute. Losing altitude at about 1,000 feet a minute from 38,000...about 38 minutes at 4 mile a minute....152 mile from last report. This was only 9 mile. woof.

Whatever happened, happened at cruise altitude. Small debris field means it was largely intact when it hit. Small pieces means it was near, at, or past terminal speed.

 

Once ASR have finished their bit they'll send in the tin kickers. CVR and FDR time.

 

Damn

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Well, it didn't take long. Report this morning was Australian Air Force found wreckage and bodies on the surface, just west of Bornio. Only 16km from their last report. Tha's only about 9 mile.

 

From 38,000 feet down to the ocean in only 9 mile is a very short space for a 320-200. Near vertical in fact. That was no power off glide. Power cruise about 8 mile a minute. Power off about 4 mile a minute. Losing altitude at about 1,000 feet a minute from 38,000...about 38 minutes at 4 mile a minute....152 mile from last report. This was only 9 mile. woof.

Whatever happened, happened at cruise altitude. Small debris field means it was largely intact when it hit. Small pieces means it was near, at, or past terminal speed.

 

Once ASR have finished their bit they'll send in the tin kickers. CVR and FDR time.

 

Damn

Now, that's about what it usually takes in these times, aint't it?

 

Whith respect to the victims, casualties, and flight crews, I actually love a good flight mystery. I love eveything avaiation, even as my experience is limited to a screen and looking up to the skies.

 

Just for kicks, I am going to make a guess: I suspect, mechanical failure of a system in relation to whether, followed by plane computers getting away from the crew. Or, second guess, the plane broke (it IS an Airbus).

 

What's your guess, Captain Marshall? You seem to know LOADS about this stuff.

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Well, it didn't take long. Report this morning was Australian Air Force found wreckage and bodies on the surface, just west of Bornio. Only 16km from their last report. Tha's only about 9 mile.

 

From 38,000 feet down to the ocean in only 9 mile is a very short space for a 320-200. Near vertical in fact. That was no power off glide. Power cruise about 8 mile a minute. Power off about 4 mile a minute. Losing altitude at about 1,000 feet a minute from 38,000...about 38 minutes at 4 mile a minute....152 mile from last report. This was only 9 mile. woof.

Whatever happened, happened at cruise altitude. Small debris field means it was largely intact when it hit. Small pieces means it was near, at, or past terminal speed.

 

Once ASR have finished their bit they'll send in the tin kickers. CVR and FDR time.

 

Damn

Kind of bizarre, isn't it? If we assume the aircraft was all in one piece - i.e. was not bombed - getting that kind of rate of descent would require the aircraft to be in alternate or direct law, one would think. The chain of failures required, I'd think, might be staggering. Not only would you need the requisite systems to fail to end up in alternate or direct law, but the pilots would have to be blissfully unaware of it (I understand Airbus makes it somewhat obvious) and trying to do something that would be safe in normal law but dumb otherwise... not that it hasn't happened before, especially in that part of the world, which is notorious for poor CRM and egotistical captains!

 

This, of course, assumes no sabotage or other foul play.

 

This will be an interesting investigation.

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I've had many close encounters so to speak. From having to try to land an F4 Phantom in Hawaii with two sick engines, to my mate and I having to nearly eject from our F-18 home in Oz when it went squirrelly on us, to stopping a spinning 8 ton helicopter from hitting the ocean in the Persian Gulf during DS2. Many engine shut-down's along the way, just another day at the office. That's just aircraft problems. Then there's the human factor. Flying a twin huey (B212) balls out ten feet above the ground into a full pitch battle to pull out the wounded while getting shot at (and some of those rounds hitting), to having when as a senior co-pilot in a helicopter, having to deal with a full on may-day emergency while the Captain next to me went to jelly! But that's what kept it all interesting, and kept me comming back for more I suppose. There was always upsides to it too. Like flying three gorgeous, butt naked, stripper/barmaids in a helicopter offshore to some Islands off the WA coast! Can't tell me that wasn't fun! lol

I've personaly never had anything I reported go against me with senior management, but it used to happen yes, most definitely. But a thing called Crew Resource Management has gone a long way to eliminating that negative culture. My personal belief was, it's my ar$e up here so I'm going to do what-ever it takes to save it and senior management be damned. I'll deal with them later... right now, I'm kinda busy! lol

 

Yeah...I had a ball! [thumbup]

 

You are my new hero!!!

 

I've read the accounts of Claire Chennaults Flying Tigers, Greg "Pappy" Boyington's Baa Baa Black Sheep, and "Chickenhawk" the story of a Huey pilot in Vietnam, when I was in my teens in high school, and was mesmerized by all of them...

 

Whether it was in service of my own country or not, I wish to thank you for your fine/honorable military service!

 

I come from a long line of military and combat veterans dating back to The Revolutionary War (and before from my Scotch ancestry in Royal Clan Stewart from Galloway province) that was the catalyst to this nation. I in fact live in the home town of my direct ancestors whom were town founders and Revolutionary War veterans... All of my Grandparents were WWII soldiers in one form or another either in the South Pacific or Europe. My paternal Grandmother's brother; Gibson (very cool name) was a tracked vehicle mechanic crew chief in a Sherman Tank starting in North Africa fighting Rommel, into the invasion of Sicily, then the invasion of Italy and fighting in the battle of Monte Casino, and then in thru Normandy and into The Battle of the Bulge where Patton hisself pinned a Silver Star on his chest, as part of his 3rd Army from the beginning, when he lept from the safety of his tank to save a fallen wounded soldier that was under MG42 machine-gun fire. He saved the infantryman and was wounded by that MG42 hisself earning him The Purple Heart also...

 

My father was a US Air Force Lt. Colonel in the Corps of Engineers veteran during The Vietnam era. He was on 24 hour notice to be dropped into the jungle and oversee the building of an air strip... The call never came... He was attempting to get his wings to be an F106 interceptor pilot when he found his allergies and hay-fever prevented him from being able to use the oxygen masks well consistently and he washed-out of flight training and retired to civilian life since he couldn't be the pilot he'd dreamed of becoming... And then I was born in 1967 @ Washington Memorial Hospital in Culver City CA outside of Los Angeles, when he was stationed @ Edwards AFB in So. California, where I was born, and then when his discharge was granted we moved back here to his ancestral home town in Western Massachusetts where he became a successful civil engineer...

 

Sadly I broke the tradition of my families military service. It is one of my two regrets in life, right after not going to college... If I had to do it all over again I'd do both military and college and I'd have become a pilot...

 

Funny thing is, I was literally at the local MEPS station signing papers to become a tracked vehicle mechanic in the US Army when I was 17, the exact MOS of my Uncle Gib; who had been in Patton's 3rd Army, before I'd ever heard about his exploits... Fate is a magnificent lady! I Didn't pull the trigger and walked-out and never enlisted only to regret it later when I grew-up and matured...

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Sorry guys, it was new years eve here last night and I was inundated with people.

 

As I said before, I can only speculate as to what happened. I have unfortunately been investigating pilot on a few accidents in my time and none have ever been clear cut or easy. My personal feeling with this is whatever happened, happened at cruise altitude because of the position of the last report and the position of the impact site. Relatively short (9 mile). It would be the same as say standing on the roof of your old high school with a paper airplane and throwing it all the way across the lawn landing by the flagpole, then throwing another and it going straight down and landing on the steps by the front door. Big difference. Whatever it was, it definitely took the pilots by surprise. Both on the controls, no time to bang out a may-day call.

I'm leaning towards sudden and catastrophic de-pressurization. With whatever cuting loose taking out a large part of the controls, or the ability to control the a/c. Has happened many times before and it's never ended good.

Time will tell eventually, they'll have to raise what they can and re-construct somewhere. It's now the waiting game.

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You are my new hero!!!

 

I've read the accounts of Claire Chennaults Flying Tigers, Greg "Pappy" Boyington's Baa Baa Black Sheep, and "Chickenhawk" the story of a Huey pilot in Vietnam, when I was in my teens in high school, and was mesmerized by all of them...

 

Whether it was in service of my own country or not, I wish to thank you for your fine/honorable military service!

 

I come from a long line of military and combat veterans dating back to The Revolutionary War (and before from my Scotch ancestry in Royal Clan Stewart from Galloway province) that was the catalyst to this nation. I in fact live in the home town of my direct ancestors whom were town founders and Revolutionary War veterans... All of my Grandparents were WWII soldiers in one form or another either in the South Pacific or Europe. My paternal Grandmother's brother; Gibson (very cool name) was a tracked vehicle mechanic crew chief in a Sherman Tank starting in North Africa fighting Rommel, into the invasion of Sicily, then the invasion of Italy and fighting in the battle of Monte Casino, and then in thru Normandy and into The Battle of the Bulge where Patton hisself pinned a Silver Star on his chest, as part of his 3rd Army from the beginning, when he lept from the safety of his tank to save a fallen wounded soldier that was under MG42 machine-gun fire. He saved the infantryman and was wounded by that MG42 hisself earning him The Purple Heart also...

 

My father was a US Air Force Lt. Colonel in the Corps of Engineers veteran during The Vietnam era. He was on 24 hour notice to be dropped into the jungle and oversee the building of an air strip... The call never came... He was attempting to get his wings to be an F106 interceptor pilot when he found his allergies and hay-fever prevented him from being able to use the oxygen masks well consistently and he washed-out of flight training and retired to civilian life since he couldn't be the pilot he'd dreamed of becoming... And then I was born in 1967 @ Washington Memorial Hospital in Culver City CA outside of Los Angeles, when he was stationed @ Edwards AFB in So. California, where I was born, and then when his discharge was granted we moved back here to his ancestral home town in Western Massachusetts where he became a successful civil engineer...

 

Sadly I broke the tradition of my families military service. It is one of my two regrets in life, right after not going to college... If I had to do it all over again I'd do both military and college and I'd have become a pilot...

 

Funny thing is, I was literally at the local MEPS station signing papers to become a tracked vehicle mechanic in the US Army when I was 17, the exact MOS of my Uncle Gib; who had been in Patton's 3rd Army, before I'd ever heard about his exploits... Fate is a magnificent lady! I Didn't pull the trigger and walked-out and never enlisted only to regret it later when I grew-up and matured...

Pull the trigger on the Vietnam War , be glad you didn't sign up

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I come from a long line of military and combat veterans dating back to The Revolutionary War (and before from my Scotch ancestry in Royal Clan Stewart from Galloway province)....

 

 

Well, hello there fellow clansman! Half Stewart, half Wallace here. My father was from Glasgow. (Mother French, me first generation Aussie!) lol

 

And yet despite being a Scot, my father actually served in your navy. lol Was three years (3 tours) a Lieutenant down IV Corps, dirty water ops.

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