E-minor7 Posted September 4, 2015 Author Share Posted September 4, 2015 Feel free, good Ron. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hogeye Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 I don't know, but let's do some simple, very general and broad theorizing. Think about a J-15-- How many man-hours does a J-15 take? 20? 30? And they are probably making at least $15 an hour, I hope! Hopefully they make more like $20. (Cost of living in Bozeman is not cheap.) Then you factor in the cost of materials (even spruce, maple and walnut are not exactly cheap), the cost of getting the materials to Montana, the cost of getting the guitars to the dealers, the price the dealer pays (which is lower than $1000 for sure). Even if the dealer did pay $1000 for each J-15, which I really don't think they do (I bought mine for $1070--there's no way they only make $70 profit)... and if labor only cost $400 for each guitar... and materials only cost $200... So what I'm saying is that I don't think the profit margin is real high on the J-15. $200? $300 at the most? Thinking about a J-45 Vintage, however, I expect it goes the other direction and the profit margin is higher. But the savings with the J-15 comes from less labor hours and from less expensive materials that don't have to travel as far as Honduran mahogany or East Indian rosewood. With a J-45 V, you've got more man-hours, more expensive materials... but not enough to account for the entire mark-up obviously. We'd need to do better detective work to know for sure on any of this. Not even close on the theorizing. It takes less than 13.5 hours to get a guitar thru the plant. Closer to 12. Never over the 13.5 limit. The time is the same for a J-15 or a J-200. Most of that time is in the spray booth. They advertise $10.00 an hour to beginning employees. No one but the management in the front office is making $20.00 an hour. McDonalds pays better. They lose money on the J-15 but cost average it on the rest of the line. The cost to make a J-15 is within $50.00 of the cost of a J-200. They all take the same amount of time to build and the difference in the cost of materials is insignificant. Go to Luthiers Mercantile and you can cost out the materials and they are very similar to the cost Gibson pays. There are differences for volume purchasing but not that much. When they were making 35 guitars a day the J-45 was the loss leader but they chose to increase production to be able to afford to make the J-15. The increase in production has made considerable strain on the employees and they have a difficult time with staffing. They would be more profitable just cutting the production back and making just the profitable Hummingbird,Dove and J-200. You want the less expensive J-15 so that isn't going to happen. The original experiment was done with the Working Man series. They had to discontinue that series fast and they weren't bleeding but hemorrhaging on the Line as they didn't staff up and increase the production. It's kinda like chasing your tail and at some point there is a limit. The limit for Gibson is the actual physical size of the plant and the ability of Bozeman to supply cheap labor. They are walking a very thin line. They need to make a lot of guitars per day to make the model work and they depend on the international market to take the majority of the guitars. The dealers are the ones caught in the middle. The internet has destroyed the independent smaller dealers and most can't compete with the large chains. It's important to support the local dealers as they are disappearing fast. Dealers make next to nothing on the sale of a guitar and depend on the loyalty of the musician to come back and buy strings and small goods to keep the doors open. It's fun to try to figure out where the money goes until you do the math. That's when you find out no one is gettin' rich. Certainly not the employees. Sorry but I kinda got off of the original topic. I can tell you this as far as I'm concerned. The speakers in my laptop are terrible and I could never tell if a guitar was good or not by listening to it thru them. I have listened to, and played, the guitar at Music Villa and it is a very fine guitar. Is it worth the extra money? Not to me but then I have 9 J-45's and don't need another. Just so you know... There is less than $50.00 in cost between the WM J-45 and the shake and baked top version. If you want and expect Gibson to stay in business buy the new J-45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MissouriPicker Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 This thread has gotten funny.........First, let me make myself very clear. The torrified J45 sounds fantastic. If I could buy it for 2400-2500 I would, but no way for the price they're asking or anywhere near 3000. I don't doubt the quality of the instrument. I think Gibson builds awesome guitars and this guitar is obviously one of them. Still, I don't think this/these guitar/s sound $20 better than my J15. If someone believes they know what the "vintage" sound is (and it's different in every single old guitar) and this new guitar is worth the price to them, then God Bless them and I hope they've got their "dream come true." I'm just not getting this "Wow! It's torrified. I'm going to pee my pants" excitement. Yes, it's a great and sweet instrument, but I've got seven Gibsons at the moment and they're all great and sweet...........Would I buy one of the torrified guitars? Sure, if I liked it and the price was right. If they knock 1200 off the asking price, I'll consider them. Or, if a used one shows-up somewhere below 2800-3000 I'll take a look at it......and I agree with the sentiment someone else expressed regarding Tony's review. I don't think he was overwhelmed by the guitar. He thought it was a great guitar, but he's played a lot of great Gibsons...........Meanwhile, Gibson has built another winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jesse_Dylan Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 Sorry but I kinda got off of the original topic. That's ok--very interesting stuff!! And that's a real shame about the employee wages. About the spray booth--I heard somewhere that the J-15 has some kind of "curing" finish, which maybe results in less time in the spray booth. Do you think this is the main cost-saving for the J-15? That's crazy that each guitar only takes 12-13.5 hours. Wow... Truly a "factory" after all... You say they're losing money on the J-15 (which doesn't surprise me). Even with such low employee wages? But I guess as you said, it averages out across the line since a J-200 is apparently within $50 of a J-15, and obviously the J-200 sells for 2-3 times the amount... I had noticed the international market has an awful lot of Gibsons. Funny that in the US, it's Chinese guitars the local companies have to compete with, but their main market is overseas, not the U.S.... The biggest shame is the employee wages. I am no fan of overseas labor, but we aren't treating our local labor much better than the overseas folks get treated. I guess my Hummingbird Vintage is keeping Gibson in business, even if my J-15 is not! Anyway, yeah, off-topic--sorry to continue, but thanks for the interesting information and insight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hogeye Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 That's ok--very interesting stuff!! And that's a real shame about the employee wages. About the spray booth--I heard somewhere that the J-15 has some kind of "curing" finish, which maybe results in less time in the spray booth. Do you think this is the main cost-saving for the J-15? That's crazy that each guitar only takes 12-13.5 hours. Wow... Truly a "factory" after all... You say they're losing money on the J-15 (which doesn't surprise me). Even with such low employee wages? But I guess as you said, it averages out across the line since a J-200 is apparently within $50 of a J-15, and obviously the J-200 sells for 2-3 times the amount... I had noticed the international market has an awful lot of Gibsons. Funny that in the US, it's Chinese guitars the local companies have to compete with, but their main market is overseas, not the U.S.... The biggest shame is the employee wages. I am no fan of overseas labor, but we aren't treating our local labor much better than the overseas folks get treated. I guess my Hummingbird Vintage is keeping Gibson in business, even if my J-15 is not! Anyway, yeah, off-topic--sorry to continue, but thanks for the interesting information and insight. You are the kind of guy that makes the model work. The cost average for your collection is on the plus side for Gibson. You are right about the employees. They deserve a lot better and most of them aren't working for the wage but for the experience. Kinda like a paid internship. I'm told that it is the same way for people in college towns all over the country. It's funny as the folks only stay a few years and when they start their families they get jobs laying asphalt or roofing houses. Gibson is going to make it as they have finally figured out how to export and now they are opening up huge new markets. The Asian market is really driving the the production and making the less expensive guitars possible. The Japanese seem to have a lot of collectors and they are willing to buy the more expensive guitars so that we can get the J-15's I think they should bake all of the wood in the production not just the tops. That would be a big plus to us in the "dry" areas as we wouldn't have so much to worry about. The humidity has always been an issue in the mountains and the new wood process sounds like it will help. I like the practical aspect more then the aesthetic value. I'm old but I can still break in a guitar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E-minor7 Posted September 4, 2015 Author Share Posted September 4, 2015 One thing I re-heard and forgot about (and was mentioned in this thread above) is... 1-11/16" nut width?? I guess that's what the nut width was back then, but that would be a deal-breaker for me, truly. 1.725" is already a little thin for me, being used to 1-3/4". These 2 are very close - could be fixed by a NEW NUT, , , if you like in ebony. . ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EuroAussie Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 The question is Larry do you want to buy a terrified J-45 or one that is perfect calm and at ease with itself ? This thread has gotten funny.........First, let me make myself very clear. The torrified J45 sounds fantastic. If I could buy it for 2400-2500 I would, but no way for the price they're asking or anywhere near 3000. I don't doubt the quality of the instrument. I think Gibson builds awesome guitars and this guitar is obviously one of them. Still, I don't think this/these guitar/s sound $20 better than my J15. If someone believes they know what the "vintage" sound is (and it's different in every single old guitar) and this new guitar is worth the price to them, then God Bless them and I hope they've got their "dream come true." I'm just not getting this "Wow! It's torrified. I'm going to pee my pants" excitement. Yes, it's a great and sweet instrument, but I've got seven Gibsons at the moment and they're all great and sweet...........Would I buy one of the torrified guitars? Sure, if I liked it and the price was right. If they knock 1200 off the asking price, I'll consider them. Or, if a used one shows-up somewhere below 2800-3000 I'll take a look at it......and I agree with the sentiment someone else expressed regarding Tony's review. I don't think he was overwhelmed by the guitar. He thought it was a great guitar, but he's played a lot of great Gibsons...........Meanwhile, Gibson has built another winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BluesKing777 Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 So many guitars - so little space ... Thanks Em7 Thanks Sal - that is the key. It sounded great to me on headphones and I would like to try one with the toasted top, but would it be radically different from my 2010 J45 after it has a couple of years on it? So it is probably like you bought the car and then they bring out the next model that has the iPad in the dashboard, purple leather steering wheel cover and different alloy wheels........and to me it would be trading up to new for the sake of having new! If it was for sale, sounded like that video, when I bought mine, I would have taken it home. BluesKing777. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smurfbird Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 Well you know I was encouraged by the 1-11/16"nut. But the prices are far too steep for me to consider. There's a point where you're paying too much for the name on the headstock.As even Gibson learned with their 2015 electric line. I prefer the used line anyhow. The best guitars I own are mostly those that other people broke in for me. I don't fret over that first ding that way. And you know it's a good machine if it's been played a bunch. Most of the guitars I've gotten that were in mint condition turned out to lack tone or be too stiff for my liking, suggesting that the reason the original owner kept it cased and little used was because they didn't feel the guitar either and were just waiting for a chance to let her go... But for those with the money and who don't mind the extra cost, I'm sure they're getting a guitar that's well worth the money. Unlike super-blinged out guitars, this one looks like it's been worked over for better sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j45nick Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 The question is Larry do you want to buy a terrified J-45 or one that is perfect calm and at ease with itself ? All my guitars are terrified every time I pick them up, as are my wife and the neighbors if I decide to play with the door to my office open. Ain't no new thang..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blindboygrunt Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 Welcome back Nick. Good to see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
E-minor7 Posted September 5, 2015 Author Share Posted September 5, 2015 Yes, captain Nicholson - welcome back on the river. . 45's are still in the stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MorrisrownSal Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 Let me say this. I was at Russo's this morning dropping off the D35 for them to fix the bad pickup I must have installed poorly... You guys need to try the plain Jane 2016 J45 Standard. I played two today. Perhaps one better than the other. Perhaps. Anyways, these are the best sounding slopes I have played. They are better than the J45TV they have on the wall. The VTC pickup is awesome as well. like I said, they have two. One will be mine... Gotst to think.... oh...and Don Ruffatto is coming by Thursday night. I am hoping to go, and hoping he brings a cooked top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
duluthdan Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 Let me say this. I was at Russo's this morning dropping off the D35 for them to fix the bad pickup I must have installed poorly... You guys need to try the plain Jane 2016 J45 Standard. I played two today. Perhaps one better than the other. Perhaps. Anyways, these are the best sounding slopes I have played. They are better than the J45TV they have on the wall. The VTC pickup is awesome as well. like I said, they have two. One will be mine... Gotst to think.... oh...and Don Ruffatto is coming by Thursday night. I am hoping to go, and hoping he brings a cooked top. Say "Hello" to Don from me - tell him I was the one at the Bozeman Homecoming who passed along winning their $1,500 Gibson Certificate to a friend who had no guitar - he ended up buying a j-45 red wine model, and loves it. B) Don is a fantastic guy. If he does bring along a thermally cured J-45, DO NOT touch it unless you are prepared to buy. It will haunt you if you walk away and leave it there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MorrisrownSal Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 1441496627[/url]' post='1691439']Say "Hello" to Don from me - tell him I was the one at the Bozeman Homecoming who passed along winning their $1,500 Gibson Certificate to a friend who had no guitar - he ended up buying a j-45 red wine model, and loves it. B) Don is a fantastic guy. If he does bring along a thermally cured J-45, DO NOT touch it unless you are prepared to buy. It will haunt you if you walk away and leave it there. Dan... You are a classy dude. Good on you, and your friend too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
j45nick Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 Welcome back Nick. Good to see ya Not quite "back" yet. Still in Maine on my boat, but I happen to be someplace with half-decent wireless connection for about a week while I do some bill-paying office work. Will be back home with most of my guitars (I do have my carbon fiber Composite Acoustics guitar aboard) in about two weeks. The carbon guitar sounds sort of like a Taylor with a bad cold after you listen to it for six weeks or so. I miss my Gibsons..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blindboygrunt Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 Not quite "back" yet. Still in Maine on my boat, but I happen to be someplace with half-decent wireless connection for about a week while I do some bill-paying office work. Will be back home with most of my guitars (I do have my carbon fiber Composite Acoustics guitar aboard) in about two weeks. The carbon guitar sounds sort of like a Taylor with a bad cold after you listen to it for six weeks or so. I miss my Gibsons..... Could be worse , it could sound like a perfectly healthy Taylor ! Keep her shiny side up . safe home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MissouriPicker Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 You guys need to stop knocking Taylors. It's a proven fact that their brightness turns into a whining sound that keeps away the denizens of the deep...........The place has been a bit more civilized without you, J45nick....... .......Be nice to have you back home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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