RASHARU Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 With many varying opinions on the current "state of the Gibby union" .. I'm interested to hear what others are thinking about the future monetary values of their prized guitars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-200 Koa Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 With many varying opinions on the current "state of the Gibby union" .. I'm interested to hear what others are thinking about the future monetary values of their prized guitars. It depends on what you paid for it. If you paid full retail it will be a long time before your back guitar will bring what you paid for it. If you snagged a "steal" from eBay or some poor seller who needed his money back out of the guitar, you'll probably be OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tpbiii Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 It depends on what you paid for it. If you paid full retail it will be a long time before your back guitar will bring what you paid for it. If you snagged a "steal" from eBay or some poor seller who needed his money back out of the guitar, you'll probably be OK. Here a link to some inflation-corrected values for various acoustic instrument values -- some Gibsons. This is a historical record, not a prediction of the future. Historically, good instruments have done very well if built before 1970, and have more-or-less kept up with inflation since. Remember that wholesale is about 50% of retail, and the best "street" prices might be about 40% of retail. index Let's pick, -Tom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParlourMan Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Totally depends on what you have, short run-models, sig's of a short run you might land lucky in a few years. General standard production models you've literally no chance unless you bought from a short run of a fabled model, in which case in 20 years time you're going to do well from it. I always try to look at it as it being worth half what I paid for it (if bought new) and climbing... it also depends on the condition and general state of the market, but the biggest key change is someone of notoriety playing a similar model, Kerrrrrching! Like all those owners of Fender Bronco's and Martin GT75's who suddenly saw their models jump a grand or more because these were used by the Arctic Monkeys. Kurt Cobain certainly rejuvenated a few fender models that hadn't been seen much for a few years. Without dwelling on it too much, there's also the passing of artists of which you have a sig model, if that happens well there's little ot no chance of another run, so up goes the price. Look at it another way as yet another generation starts looking towards Robert Johnson, look at the price of an L1, even though he played a Kalamazoo for the largest part. so, if you have a fabled sig model of a guy who's now dead, you're a winner on every angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aster1 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Remember that wholesale is about 50% of retail, and the best "street" prices might be about 40% of retail. Maybe 50% off list is dealer, but I'd say it must be more like 60%-75% from many of the deals that I've been able to wrangle. Don't know for sure, but the numbers just don't add up if it's only 50% margin (2x cost to sell). Anyone know for sure and if there are dealer rebates and incentives? Aster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zombywoof Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Barring something like we end up with a new category of pre-Peavey Gibsons or a more widespeard use of something like high pressure laminates, it depends on how much Gibson raises its prices as the used stuff will keep pace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buc McMaster Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I say what does it matter in the grand scheme of things? Guess I'm a pessimist at heart and things like guitar values are meanless trivia in the long, sad parade of humanity. Within another 100 years over-population will surely overcome our best efforts to stave off the collapse of organized societies as we now know them. Dwindling resources worldwide (water being at the forefront) and the insuing inability of governments to maintain societial organization will lead to war and massive civil unrest across the planet and it will degrade into an every man for himself kind of chaos. What will your Gibson be worth then? Firewood. Like your guitar? Play it while you can. Think I'm nuts? Perhaps. Ponder the current state of affairs in the world at length and draw your own conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MissouriPicker Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I can only speak for myself---I have never bought a guitar and wondered what it will be worth as it ages. I buy a guitar because I want it. For me, I think very few people can rely on a guitar being a financial investment. I use mine for an emotional investment. I don't expect any more than that and likely it's enough for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanvillRob Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I kinda though RASHARU wanted to know how the value if Gibson's might be affected should Gibson be forced out of business, or forced off-shore. I think the value of "USA Made Gibsons" would increase should procuction be forced off-shore, or closed down. However, if you have Gibsons with "illegal wood", I think the Lacy Act can prevent you from selling it out of the country, or even travel with it out of the country. If that's so, I suspect they'd be worth less, (not worthless). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanvillRob Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I can only speak for myself---I have never bought a guitar and wondered what it will be worth as it ages. I buy a guitar because I want it. For me, I think very few people can rely on a guitar being a financial investment. I use mine for an emotional investment. I don't expect any more than that and likely it's enough for me. Good advice. I bought my Jubilee 35+ years ago 'cause I found it cheap. It was, and still is a great guitar. My wife bought me my Dove as a present about 30 years ago. It's a WONDERFUL guitar, and I'd never consider selling either. Now it's a little different with my DIF and H'Bird. I bought those because they're wonderful guitars...but I wanted to have something I can pass down to my grandkids someday, (not too soon, hopefully). Not that I'll ever make any money off them, and I hope they won't hock them for drugs....but that they keep them and pass them along to THEIR kids or grandkids. I like to think that 100 years from now a couple of my great-great grandkids will be playing them and think of their long-dead great-great grandpa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RASHARU Posted October 7, 2011 Author Share Posted October 7, 2011 I kinda though RASHARU wanted to know how the value if Gibson's might be affected should Gibson be forced out of business, or forced off-shore. If that's so, I suspect they'd be worth less, (not worthless).... Thank you there, D-Rob. I think you're the only one that picked up on what I was originally asking. Believe me .. I'm fully aware of the recent economy in relation to guitar sales. I'm more interested in how the future GIBSON resale climate may be affected by all the recent negative affairs. ... and for all you guys who always say "I buy a guitar to play & keep forever & enjoy & cherish & whatever ..." Seriously?! You've honestly never sold a guitar that you thought you'd never let go?? I don't know of anyone (personally speaking) that has never decided to make a major guitar change midway through the game. You may luck across the Holy Grail of guitars today and then realize sometime next summer that you really need a new Triple-O instead .. even worse than that golden chalis! I think we all want to know that our favorite guitars will hold their value really well over time .. for obvious reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yggdrasil Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 However, if you have Gibsons with "illegal wood", I think the Lacy Act can prevent you from selling it out of the country, or even travel with it out of the country. This concerns me as a Canadian who regularly crosses the border, often with a Gibson. AFAIK, I have no banned materialss as such in any guitars (eg. Braz RW, ivory, etc.) I hope that a Gibson wouldn't be targetted, though, for example, for the possibility that the rosewood fretboard might have been made from an improperly sized Indian rosewood! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Swan Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Original condition well-made instruments with time-tested designs and model designations should hold up well for resale. Oddball models with unusual materials or cosmetic treatments usually don't do as well. Play them and love them when they work for you and trade them off if they don't. If you lose a little money along the way, it's pretty cheap rent when you consider the hours of enjoyment that you've gotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerry K Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I think that Ren Ferguson - era Gibsons will turn out to be among the best the company ever made. Ren is getting older and will probably retire within a few years. Some of the custom shop pieces done with heavy supervision by Ren are already garnering fantastic prices on the Japanese market. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ParlourMan Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Yes, I do believe that the 'Ren Ferguson era' will be among the glory days too. I've managed to snag 3 lovely samples of their work under his reign. Can't complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nick Beach Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 My guitar's value is going down. But thats probably because I haul it everywhere I go. Both my Gibby's (AJ, and SG) went from being nice new guitars to being 'well loved' pieces of musical awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eyecon Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Here is a snapshot in time of the current state of guitar values. The link is an craigslist ad for a J45. The seller (whom I don't know or have affiliations with) has had this guitar listed for a few months. His price started at what most would value a used late model J45 - $1700. No sale for a few months, so he has dropped his price to $1300. I suspect someone could buy it even cheaper still. With the current economic turmoil, just not as many people with disposable income. Meaning not as many buyers, values drop. http://staugustine.craigslist.org/msg/2605757901.html BTW... St. Augustine is only 20 min. from me. If anyone wants me to check out this guitar I would be more than happy to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig910 Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I'm not too concerned. I got good deals when I purchased my guitars, I've taken good care of 'em, and I'm sure I'd still make money if I were to sell them today. Not quite as much as if I had sold them about 4 years ago, but I'd still do OK today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rar Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Maybe 50% off list is dealer, but I'd say it must be more like 60%-75% from many of the deals that I've been able to wrangle. This varies by brand, but it's 50% for Gibson. (But, of course, there can be exceptions, because it's Gibson.) Dealers sometimes sell at a loss to free up the capital tied up in an instrument that they can't sell for more in order to reinvest in something that they can sell at a profit, or because of a cash crunch, or as a "loss leader" to get you to buy something that they do make a profit on, or ... . A dealer who consistently sells everything below cost won't be around long, but a dealer who never sells anything below cost probably won't be either. And selling NOS at less than 50% of current list may not be selling at a loss, especially given that interest rates have been so low. -- Bob R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rar Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 However, if you have Gibsons with "illegal wood", I think the Lacy Act can prevent you from selling it out of the country, or even travel with it out of the country. I think you've confused the Lacey Act with CITES. Lacey is completely irrelevant to selling abroad or carrying abroad. -- Bob R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rar Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 ... If you lose a little money along the way, it's pretty cheap rent when you consider the hours of enjoyment that you've gotten. +1 And I don't see how anyone who doesn't agree ever manages to buy a new guitar (though self-delusion may something to do with it :) ). Maybe "no more Gibsons" would make prices go through the roof, but that's not going to happen. Worst conceivable case is that the current corporation's assets get sold and Gibsons are built by some other company. AFAICT, when this happened in '86, the sale had no effect whatsoever on the prices of already-built Gibsons. Given the number that have been built over the last 10 years or so, it will be a l-o-n-g time before there will be anything resembling a shortage of Bozeman-built Gibson acoustics. More likely there will be a glut on the market as we Boomers die off, since the folks whose disposable income will be peaking generally don't have the same passion for acoustic guitars -- different musical influences. I suppose Ren's retirement might cause a spike in Japan, especially on guitars with his signature on them somewhere, but most U.S. buyers have no idea who he is. -- Bob R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jerry K Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 I suppose Ren's retirement might cause a spike in Japan, especially on guitars with his signature on them somewhere, but most U.S. buyers have no idea who he is. -- Bob R Bob I guess you are talking about fairly short term here. It's going to take a while for Ferguson-era guitars to age to a point where the wood is in a state similar to vintage guitars today. My guess is they will retain their value well, pretty much in line with previous experience with guitars. I don't buy guitars as an investment and I think they are probably a poor choice of investment because there is no way to predict tastes and demand for these things down the line, regardless of how great they are. But a good guitar now is a lot of fun to play and really not expensive considering how much use can be gotten from one with reasonable care and maintenance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EuroAussie Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 To be honest Ive got no idea if the value of my Gibbys is going up or down, and frankly it is something that holds no interest for me. I never bought them with resale in mind, hence if the value of mine dropped to zero it would cause me no concern as long as they continued to play beautifully and were in my apartment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rar Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Bob I guess you are talking about fairly short term here. ... Right. Darned if I can see any reason to care how much my guitars will be worth fifty years from now. -- Bob R Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rar Posted October 7, 2011 Share Posted October 7, 2011 Thanks to EuroAussie's post, I just thought of something else I should have mentioned in my first post. I've spent a bunch of money on vintage Gibsons, but would be very, very happy if the price of vintage Gibsons dropped like a rock. Why? There's plenty more out there I'd love to own but can't afford! And, even if I did sell some to finance acquiring more, I'm still better off if prices drop more or less uniformly: if selling guitar X will half pay for guitar Y, I want the price of X -- which is the price difference between Y and X, the "other half" I still have to pay -- to be as small as possible. The only time high guitar prices work to my benefit is when I'm selling in order to get money to pay for something other than a guitar. (But, even in that circumstance, there would be less pressure to sell the guitars if they're not worth much, so that's would be a bit of a plus if I didn't really want to sell them. Which I wouldn't!) -- Bob P.S. Just in case it's not obvious, I'm speaking from a purely personal perspective here. I don't really want to see my vintage guitar dealer friends financially ruined! If the market price for early '50s J-200s suddenly dropped to $1000, I would be both very happy and very guilty for feeling very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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