Future Gibson "Vintage" guitars….

[onewilyfool]

Here's my opinion…I think Bozeman made guitars are actually a better build quality than older vintage Gibson guitars from Gibson's so called "Golden age". ( Or as my local repair Guru says about old Gibsons as he repairs them, "Only a Gibson is glued enough") The vintage ones often sound better than new counterparts, due to the aging effects of time and play. This is true for Martin sand other manufacturers also. In the future, when our Bozeman guitars have aged, they will be in great demand, and will be in better shape than the older Gibsons of yore. I won't be around to see it….but I feel this is a pretty good prediction….

[ksdaddy]

If there's any such thing as a down side to Bozeman production, it's that if they don't go through a CBS buyout or a Norlin change or pre/post Avnet or if they move from Hoboken to Providence, there will never be a line of demarcation. Nobody will ever be able to say "they don't make 'em like they used to" and watch the prices skyrocket.

 

I think it was Babe Simoni at Fender who once said "we don't make 'em like we used to...and we never did!"

[wonderful remark]

Pre-Ren Ferguson departure and Post-Ren ferguson departure

[Jayyj]

The immediate problem I see with this is that there needs to be something to drive the market for today's guitars as they get older. Bozeman Gibsons may be good but they're making a lot of them, have done for a long while at the current factory, and show no signs of changing track. As long as that's the case, it's had to see why they would become more than just good second hand guitars. The original demand for vintage was driven by the fact that players began to recognise that old guitars sounded better due to a myriad of changes over the years had resulted in the modern versions being inferior guitars and, since there was only a finite number of old guitars available, demand outstripped supply and the market bounded upward. I guess it boils down to whether demand for Gibsons of the current era become more desirable to Gibsons made in the future.

[ksdaddy]

Pre-Ren Ferguson departure and Post-Ren ferguson departure

 

You're absolutely right, and that will create the imaginary line that will artificially make Joe's guitar better than Fred's, giving Joe a permanent sense of superiority and putting Fred in a permanent state of defense.

 

Joe's is bigger and Fred's is smaller. That's what it's all about, isn't it?

[zombywoof]

Every guitar that has hung around long enough will eventually become a "vintage" guitar. Problem is no matter how old Bozeman guitars get there will always be older ones. But as those increase in value and become harder to obtain, those that came after will be the beneficiary and become more sought after. But as of yet, I have not seen any great clamor for early Bozeman factory production guitars other than the first prototypes. I do not think Gibson has built anything in the limnited edition category that is in the same sought after and high dollar category as that Martin Joan Baez O-45.

[ajay]

oI think that the models of yesteryear that Ren studied and worked hard to re-create could be pretty good. Especially the "Ren" years. The prices are not going down. If a new Indian Rosewood Advanced Jumbo costs $4000 in ten years, it will be pretty hard to get someone to part with a nice one for $1400. I wouldn't sell mine for $1600 now. Prices of everything are going to go way up, because the dollar and the Euro are both poised to take a major dump.

 

The workers at Bozeman are going to have much more expensive benefits, so the prices of new Gibson are going up and will continue to go up. As new ones double in price, nice used exmples ar going to command higher prices.

 

And then there's Rosewood. Thery already raided Gibson and confiscated all of their Rosewood. I think that they got it back, but there are quite a few laminated bridges and fretboards on recent Gibson guitars. I think in the future solid Rosewood Gibsons may go up, along with other exotic wood models that they produce. I think that an older Advanced Jumbo with a solid Brazilian saddle is going to outpace guitars with laminated Indian or Madagascar parts. The times are already changin'.

[zombywoof]

Obviously prices on used instruments will rise in proportion to the price tag on new ones.

 

I can't help but think though that if Ren had gone out and put together his own shop like Walker, Kopp and Triggs, the Gibsons he built would become hot, hot, hot. If you think about it though the only name connected with Gibson that has truly become legendary and which anything associated with brings big bucks is Loar (followed by Seth Lover). Even those Vivatones Loar built after he left Gibson sell for some pretty serious money. I mean I wonder how many of us would have ever heard of Jim Deurloo if he had stayed with Gibson or Guild, despite his accomplishments with those companies, and had not founded Heritage Guitars.

[fortyearspickn]

You're absolutely right, and that will create the imaginary line that will artificially make Joe's guitar better than Fred's, giving Joe a permanent sense of superiority and putting Fred in a permanent state of defense.

 

Joe's is bigger and Fred's is smaller. That's what it's all about, isn't it?

 

Maybe a year after Ren got to Bozeman, and a year or so after he left? The Second Golden Age of Gibson? The Third ?

[slimt]

Time will tell.. to many versions of one item. the future collectors will call them all fakes.

[ajay]

I don't know about a year after Ren got to Gibson. He had to train every worker on the acoustic line. I think that it probably took more than a year to get them turning, out their best work. Ren made some customs, but he didn't work on a huge number of Gibson's.

[fortyearspickn]

Time will tell.. to many versions of one item. the future collectors will call them all fakes.

 

I'm not understanding your point. Too many versions of which 'one' item? Martin has more models/versions than Gibson, and produces 10 times the volume - will collectors shun those?

And why would collectors call them fakes? Most of us here can tell a real one from a poor copy.

Collectors become proficient in differentiating not just fakes, but also quality 'collectible' examples which are authentic - from poor examples which are authentic.

[slimt]

I'm not understanding your point. Too many versions of which 'one' item? Martin has more models/versions than Gibson, and produces 10 times the volume - will collectors shun those?

And why would collectors call them fakes? Most of us here can tell a real one from a poor copy.

Collectors become proficient in differentiating not just fakes, but also quality 'collectible' examples which are authentic - from poor examples which are authentic.

 

I shouldnt of been so negitive.. I really dont think in the future collectibles will be much.. theres just to much out there.. when a company can pop out 100 of this 50 of that 150 of this all pretaining to basically the same model of guitar.. and do it year after year in amongst all the standard models,, its being saturated .. the 90s were I think the best for Gibson.. from being almost dead to reviving with some very worthy quality built guitars from a Top notch builder and his crew.. now they are gone.. doing there own thing and Hand building what they do best.. they will set the bar for high end guitars that players and collectors like and they will come with a price.

 

personally I dont think Kids nowadays will really care about these in the future ,, there just in a different mind set.. .. now as for fake.. I shouldnt of been so harsh with the word.. you come out with rosewood, koa, mohagany, maple, walnut, brazilian, Coco bolo, iron wood, Madagascar so on.. and nothing is indicated on the label.the future collectors will have a hard time figuting out what exactly they have to deal with..

[ajay]

I know some 19-25 year old kids that are in pretty good bands. They all read all of the guitar magazines, and their heroes play old, cracked finish J-45's and old beat up looking Martins. They all talk like, if we ever get a contract to tour, I'm buying vintage guitars with my money instead of partying the money away like they did in the old days. Most of them dream of having a worn-looking old Gibson or Martin. Just about all of them that have played my EIR AJ want to borrow it if they go into the studio.

Kids are smarter than some folks give them credit for. They know a great guitar when they play one. A lot of them do harmonics tricks with their acoustics, and they can't believe how they ring on an Advanced Jumbo.

[mountainpicker]

Predicting the future. Now there's an endeavor fraught with the opportunity to make errors. Remember when the computer was going to eliminate the need for paper? Or how about nuclear energy being safely produced for so cheap that we would barely be able to meter it? Or my most recent favorite, "we won't use the Patriot Act to listen to the private conversations of the citizenry". Maybe guitars will be eclipsed by some other instrument fad in ten years. Maybe wood will become so scarce that anything made of some exotic woods will be like things made of elephant ivory are today. I think the hard part for the future guitar player is going to be sorting through the bazillions of guitars made today (the sheer quantity of guitars today exceeds the '30's and '40's combined I would guess) to separate the wheat from the chaff. And then there are all the custom builds out there that weren't even an option back when. When we are dust will the names Sexauer or Kopp or Ferguson mean anything to anybody alive? I just know that I have lived through a golden age of guitar quality and choices, along with other golden ages that appear to have an expiration date that is hazy but a surety. I have three Ren Ferguson influenced guitars that I bought partially because of his influence but mostly because the brand name gave me the best shot at getting something good. I won't be around to see if that means anything to the future. About the only prediction I can make is that there will be a guy in the future coming home from a hard day's work sitting down with his guitar and a beer and escaping his everyday world for a bit and feeding his soul by playing some music. Maybe even more than one guy.

[zombywoof]

I know some 19-25 year old kids that are in pretty good bands. They all read all of the guitar magazines, and their heroes play old, cracked finish J-45's and old beat up looking Martins. They all talk like, if we ever get a contract to tour, I'm buying vintage guitars with my money instead of partying the money away like they did in the old days. Most of them dream of having a worn-looking old Gibson or Martin. Just about all of them that have played my EIR AJ want to borrow it if they go into the studio.

Kids are smarter than some folks give them credit for. They know a great guitar when they play one. A lot of them do harmonics tricks with their acoustics, and they can't believe how they ring on an Advanced Jumbo.

 

 

I would say this is as much about image as it is about sound.

[zombywoof]

If I could predict the future, looking at some of the guitars I picked up as simply "used" guitars and what they bring today, I would be sitting in a big old house on 10 acres of land with an ocean view.

[cunningham26]

Speaking only for Gibson acoustics, I think when you boil it down, you can make a good estimate of what will be worthwhile in the future. Playability, notoriety, and rarity will be the factors. Even with the abundance of variation and "limited" models, there are still those we talk about most often and those really limited runs. A j45 standard and most of the things you can find easily on the walls of guitar centers nationwide (j35, songwriters, AJ) will wash out because there are so many of them produced. great guitars, but not really "vintage". I think the TV series will become collectible, and the five star dealer runs (think wildwood new vintage) will command a good price. They already have the head start of being constructed to a higher quality and sound great, and are in such limited numbers that I can already imagine seeing the posts titled "what do I have here?" with someone that found dads guitar in the garage, thinks it's a banner era j45, turns out its a TV, and still worth 4-5k.

 

Oh and as someone that used to be a 19-25yo (im 30 now) GAS is definitely taking over as the addiction du jour for musicians. Why bother raging and doing blow when you can surround yourself in gear?

[MorrisrownSal]

I am pretty sure I wont care if my Gibsons go up in value, or down.

 

My 401k - that's a different story.

[J-1854Me]

I don't think the answers are that clear cut, or that predictable either, for that matter.

 

Yes, "generally", Bozeman-era guitars are WAY above the previous Norlin-era guitars -- but not in all cases. There are a few sightings (or more correctly, citings) of excellent-sounding Norlins.

 

But there are also a painfully high number of ho-hum sounding Bozeman-era guitars. I say this based on years of chasing these things, starting in the early '90s. That's when I first met Ren, Robi Johns, Bill Gonder, Val, Kevin and some of the crowd at the Bozeman plant. I played as many as I could find, and had opportunities to visit Gibson dealers during various travel throughout that time period, and found that I was finding maybe 1 good one for every 7, 8, 10 or more "meh" guitars.

 

So, just because it's Bozeman-made, it does not automatically confer a "heavens parted and the angels sang" sort of guitar.

 

My sense is that there are good-excellent Bozeman guitars from all years, but that it was pretty difficult to locate them through much of the mid to late '90s. The miss/hit ratio was a lot higher then than it is now. As time went on, the quality became better and the sound was better too, and more dependablly good.

 

In my mind, that corner was turned in about the early 'aughts (2000++). Currently, I think that the good uns exceed the dogs by a much more comfortable margin than, say 1994-9.

 

That's my two cents, for what it's worth (2¢).

 

Fred

[zombywoof]

Hey, Peavey could buy Gibson and all of the Bozeman-made stuff would skyrocket in value.

 

The singularly most sought after and valuable acoustic instrument made by Gibson is, of course, not a guitar but a Loar-period F5 mandolin. If you think about it, Gibson flattops collectible enough to command a price tag even near what something like a pre-War Martin D-28 brings are few and far between. You are talking an original AJ or maybe a pre-War SJ-200, stairstep headstock J-55 and such.

 

The most sought after and valuable Bozeman-made guitar I can think of would be one of those first run, signed Sir Paulie Epiphone Texans. Missed the boat on that one.

 

While I ain't a betting man, if I wanted to go out and buy a Bozeman-made guitar that I thought had the best chance of being collectible 20 years down the road I would snag one of the prototypes built in 1988 for NAMM. All made by hand, very few of them out there, and still fairly cheap (when you can find one).

[tpbiii]

Historically, the acoustic vintage guitar market was created by the desired for iconic instruments that were symbiotically involved in the development of new and popular acoustic music forms. Bluegrass with Gibson mandolins and banjos (and Martin D-28s), acoustic country driven by the J-45, acoustic jazz by L5s etc. Many of the 60s models (HBs, Doves, etc.) were driven by the folk revival, which was at least lightly acoustic.

 

BG, Old Time, Singer/songwriter, ragtime and folk circles survive all keep on trucking, especially BG. Until you know what popular acoustic music forms will be exist in 50 years, I think it is impossible to guess demand. If the supply is large, then prices will be low unless the music drives big demand.

 

Now Gibson (and others as well) are mostly innovating by doing copies of old models. That is actually pretty strange when you think about it. Hard to say how that will play 2160.

 

Let's pick,

 

-Tom

[JuanCarlosVejar]

You are forgetting to mention the dwindling supply of some woods .There is still stuff like the J 200 M , the master museums , brazilian rosewood guitars, Hawaiian koa guitars , and other special models out there that were made in small batches . The 100 1934 jumbos and 100 1935 advanced jumbos could be something .The 75th anniversary bhilwara aj's could be something that collectors will be interested in.

 

 

 

JC

[PickitPaul]

I don't think the answers are that clear cut, or that predictable either, for that matter.

 

Yes, "generally", Bozeman-era guitars are WAY above the previous Norlin-era guitars -- but not in all cases. There are a few sightings (or more correctly, citings) of excellent-sounding Norlins.

 

But there are also a painfully high number of ho-hum sounding Bozeman-era guitars. I say this based on years of chasing these things, starting in the early '90s. That's when I first met Ren, Robi, Bill, Val, Kevin and some of the crowd at the Bozeman plant. I played as many as I could find, and had opportunities to visit Gibson dealers during various travel throughout that time period, and found that I was finding maybe 1 good one for every 7, 8, 10 or more "meh" guitars.

 

So, just because it's Bozeman-made, it does not automatically confer a "heavens parted and the angels sang" sort of guitar.

 

My sense is that there are good-excellent Bozeman guitars from all years, but that it was pretty difficult to locate them through much of the mid to late '90s. The miss/hit ratio was a lot higher then than it is now. As time went on, the quality became better and the sound was better too, and more dependablly good.

 

In my mind, that corner was turned in about the early 'aughts (2000++). Currently, I think that the good uns exceed the dogs by a much more comfortable margin than, say 1994-9.

 

That's my two cents, for what it's worth (2¢).

 

Fred

 

 

What do you think of the early '90's, like '90, '91 in that range? I would think that very few guitars were being made compared to now, and more attention was given to the construction with direct oversight by Ren himself then? (I have a mid '91 SJ that I love by the way) I notice that the back braces were more low / rounded on my SJ than the higher thin ones used on the J35 / J45 / SJ now. Could have just been that particular run of SJ's. Also I think the finger board / bridge might be Brazilian, but not sure.

[Phelonious Ponk]

I don't think the answers are that clear cut, or that predictable either, for that matter.

 

Yes, "generally", Bozeman-era guitars are WAY above the previous Norlin-era guitars -- but not in all cases. There are a few sightings (or more correctly, citings) of excellent-sounding Norlins.

 

But there are also a painfully high number of ho-hum sounding Bozeman-era guitars. I say this based on years of chasing these things, starting in the early '90s. That's when I first met Ren, Robi, Bill, Val, Kevin and some of the crowd at the Bozeman plant. I played as many as I could find, and had opportunities to visit Gibson dealers during various travel throughout that time period, and found that I was finding maybe 1 good one for every 7, 8, 10 or more "meh" guitars.

 

So, just because it's Bozeman-made, it does not automatically confer a "heavens parted and the angels sang" sort of guitar.

 

My sense is that there are good-excellent Bozeman guitars from all years, but that it was pretty difficult to locate them through much of the mid to late '90s. The miss/hit ratio was a lot higher then than it is now. As time went on, the quality became better and the sound was better too, and more dependablly good.

 

In my mind, that corner was turned in about the early 'aughts (2000++). Currently, I think that the good uns exceed the dogs by a much more comfortable margin than, say 1994-9.

 

That's my two cents, for what it's worth (2¢).

 

Fred

 

Well said, and reflects my experience with Gibsons. I think they are more consistent now than they've ever been, and the best guitars they've built since the 40s. Regarding future value and collectability, i don't think we could underestimate how much of that will have to do with sound. It will have everything to do with age and legend. In 2050, an early Bozeman Gibson, regardless of whether or not it is "a good one" will be worth more than a better-sounding 2015. If "Ren Era" becomes a thing, they will be worth more than post Ren Gibsons, in spite of the fact that we are seeing the best, most consistent results of Ren's management now that he has moved on, not in the 90s when he was working on training, methods, etc. And on top of age and era will be rarity -- custom shop runs, retailer special runs, etc. will all be value-enhanced for their rarity. Good news for my son when he goes to sell my OJ.

 

But age, as always, will be on first.

 

P