Covid19 How many in your state or country?

[Black Dog]

13 hours ago, jdgm said:

It's important (it is to me anyway) to emphasise there are people recovering.

Over 2 million recorded cases but at least 1/2 million of those have recovered.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

And it's actually way, way more than that.  We are way under-counting total cases and recoveries.  We are also way overcounting deaths.  Now in New York they are going back and retroactively counting deaths that they "think could have been" from Covid-19.  Yep, people who were never tested are getting counted as Covid deaths.  Ridiculous.  I have a physician in my group who runs around telling patients they have Covid-19 and when he tests them they're all negative.

[Black Dog]

On 4/15/2020 at 6:42 AM, Lord Summerisle said:

I'm very relieved we didn't test the "for most young people it's not much worse than a cold" theory...

 

Except it's not a theory, it's a fact.  Sweden is doing quite well with mild social distancing, no shutdown.  They're a country of 10 million, about half the size of New York State.  They had their first case before New York and right now they have only 1300 dead compared to New York with 14,000 (albeit an inflated number).

Edited April 16, 2020 by Black Dog

[Mr. Gibson]

393 positive 9 deaths

[rct]

4 hours ago, Black Dog said:

 

And it's actually way, way more than that.  We are way under-counting total cases and recoveries.  We are also way overcounting deaths.  Now in New York they are going back and retroactively counting deaths that they "think could have been" from Covid-19.  Yep, people who were never tested are getting counted as Covid deaths.  Ridiculous.  I have a physician in my group who runs around telling patients they have Covid-19 and when he tests them they're all negative.

 

You should contact the authorities with all of your correct data, they would probably be glad to update all of their wrong data since they can't seem to get yours for some reason.

rct

[Black Dog]

10 minutes ago, rct said:

 

You should contact the authorities with all of your correct data, they would probably be glad to update all of their wrong data since they can't seem to get yours for some reason.

rct

 

They already have it.  We all have it.  They're just not telling you what you need to know about it.

[rct]

Ok.  We've tested about 1% of Continental US America.  Is that accurate?

If it is accurate what about that fact is being understated or overstated?  How do we move along back to raves and full fast food restaurants when 1 in 100 has actually been tested but we somehow know everybody is fine?

If it isn't accurate, what is the actual percentage of this country that has been tested and where is that information?

America accounts for 4.25% of the population of the entire planet.  We also account for more than 20% of deaths from this pandemic.  Is that information accurate or not accurate?  If it is, why is that ok and nobody seems to be saying anything about our 3rd or 4th world country statistics?  If it is not accurate, where is the mistake and what is the actual figure?

In other words, what exactly are they not telling me or anybody else?

rct

[mihcmac]

Hawaii claims to have done about 20,000 tests with a small population of 1.4M which comes out to about 1 in 70 being tested. Many states started testing  after seeing what was happening to NY. Doing an average for the US won't average down correctly state by state.

https://www.politico.com/interactives/2020/coronavirus-testing-by-state-chart-of-new-cases/

Hawaii started a mandatory 2 week quarantine for all travelers early.

Edited April 16, 2020 by mihcmac

[rct]

4 minutes ago, mihcmac said:

Hawaii claims to have done about 20,000 tests with a population of 1.4M which comes out to about 1 in 70 being tested. Many states started testing  after seeing what was happening to NY. Doing an average for the US won't average down correctly state by state.

 

So they "open up" Hawaii.  You go to the store.  Out of every 70 people you walk past in your day, 69 have not been tested.  But everything is ok?  Fine now, right?  You can go home, hang with the grand parents and the old lady next door and that guy down the street chemo'n up every other day and it will all be great because we have to "open up".  Do I have that right?

rct

[mihcmac]

41 minutes ago, rct said:

 

So they "open up" Hawaii.  You go to the store.  Out of every 70 people you walk past in your day, 69 have not been tested.  But everything is ok?  Fine now, right?  You can go home, hang with the grand parents and the old lady next door and that guy down the street chemo'n up every other day and it will all be great because we have to "open up".  Do I have that right?

rct

We are in a mandatory stay at home order, with heavy fines for anyone caught that isn't going out for essential supplies and every one is wearing masks. Also Oahu has the highest rate of infection, my Island, the Big Island, has 41 cases with a population of 186000, so the testing ratio is lower.

local news https://www.staradvertiser.com/coronavirus/

Edited April 16, 2020 by mihcmac

[Black Dog]

1 hour ago, rct said:

Ok.  We've tested about 1% of Continental US America.  Is that accurate?

Probably.

1 hour ago, rct said:

If it is accurate what about that fact is being understated or overstated?  

What is overstated is the value of widespread shutdowns.  What is understated is cost of widespread shutdowns.  What is overstated is how sick people are getting from this.  What is overstated is the value of testing.  Can you tell me what that is clinically vs epidemiologically?   And what kind of testing?  What do you use it for?  What does it tell you in the context of this type of infectious disease and what you know historically about infections/pandemics/epidemics like this? 

1 hour ago, rct said:

How do we move along back to raves and full fast food restaurants when 1 in 100 has actually been tested but we somehow know everybody is fine?

What do you do every Flu season with your eating-out habits?  Do you stop in October and resume in May?  Do you advocate for shutting down the country every fall for Flu season which kills up to 80k/yr?

1 hour ago, rct said:

America accounts for 4.25% of the population of the entire planet.  We also account for more than 20% of deaths from this pandemic.  Is that information accurate or not accurate?  If it is, why is that ok and nobody seems to be saying anything about our 3rd or 4th world country statistics?  If it is not accurate, where is the mistake and what is the actual figure?

It's probably not accurate.  Look at the trouble we’ve had getting reliable testing up and running in the US.  Do you think that other countries, especially third world, are doing better?  Do you think that North Korea has had zero cases??  Is Russia being honest?  Has China been honest?  Do most of these other countries even care?  We are actually admitting here in the US now that we are overcounting deaths by just guessing as to what they died from.

1 hour ago, rct said:

In other words, what exactly are they not telling me or anybody else?

Anyway, I’ve tried to explain each and every post I’ve made on the subject.  I’ve included links to government and other websites for data.  I’ve linked to articles from epidemiologists and economists who disagree with the “mainstream”.  If you think there is only one credible perspective and interpretation of all this you are not keeping an open mind.

You can believe whatever you want.  I've heard so many things that are just wrong in all this, I've just tried to offer the perspective of 23 years of clinical medicine experience.  Maybe you know better.

[rct]

My wife of 40 years has a 14 plus year old chronic, very serious, underlying condition that renders her absolutely ripe for pleural effusion and pneumonia.  We haven't lived with this for 14 plus years and she hasn't worked her entire life to be 5 months from retirement so she can go to work and some DOOSCHBAG that has not taken a lick of this seriously can cough the fukk all over her office and kill her.   PERIOD FULL STOP END OF STORY.

Then, multiply that by a lot of tens of millions of people in the same boat, and their family members, and their friends and acquaintances.

No, I don't have any clinicalistic or medicinalology background to deep dive the stats.  Stats are just that, stats.  As usual, the people under all the stats don't matter except for all of the WHAT ABOUT ME I HAVE TO GET OUT OF THE HOUSE crybabies that claim to be super patriots but can't do one godddam thing for their country because it is just. too. hard.

Vastly unprepared, led by incompetents, spurred on by both sides of the same coin media. Our collective answer would appear to be ok enough of this let's just move on as though it didn't happen.   We, as a nation, are a disgrace, from top to bottom.

rct

['Scales]

Black Dog I am also sceptical about the accuracy of some countries figures (for many poor and/or incapable countries it would be impossible to get so not suggesting they are deliberately wrong). If you want a couple of comparisons you can absolutely have faith in then use Australia and New Zealand. I have no doubt our figures are correct. Tactics have been a bit different - NZ had full lockdown whereas Oz has looked for a mix of health v economic ...but our results are similar. A couple of good, trustable first world equivilent a for comparison.

btw - Sweden have expressed regret at not shutting down more and quicker so may not be your best example

[Black Dog]

1 minute ago, 'Scales said:

Black Dog I am also sceptical about the accuracy of some countries figures (for many poor and/or incapable countries it would be impossible to get so not suggesting they are deliberately wrong). If you want a couple of comparisons you can absolutely have faith in then use Australia and New Zealand. I have no doubt our figures are correct. Tactics have been a bit different - NZ had full lockdown whereas Oz has looked for a mix of health v economic ...but our results are similar. A couple of good, trustable first world equivilent a for comparison.

btw - Sweden have expressed regret at not shutting down more and quicker so may not be your best example

 

Actually, the numbers in Sweden speak for themselves.  It's a great example.  Sweden has only 1300 deaths out of 10 million with new cases going down by the day.  Do you have other data?  

['Scales]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/14/sweden-22-scientists-say-coronavirus-strategy-has-failed-as-deaths-top-1000/#1d651a137b6c

Data - Australia has 63 deaths out of 25 million people. New Zealand has 9 deaths out of 5 million people.

[rct]

3 minutes ago, Black Dog said:

 

Actually, the numbers in Sweden speak for themselves.  It's a great example.  Sweden has only 1300 deaths out of 10 million with new cases going down by the day.  Do you have other data?  

 

0.13% of the population of the planet, 0.919% of coronavirus fatalities on the planet.

4.25% of population of the planet, 23.776% of coronavirus fatalities on the planet.

Which country is doing something terribly wrong?

rct

[Black Dog]

19 minutes ago, rct said:

My wife of 40 years has a 14 plus year old chronic, very serious, underlying condition that renders her absolutely ripe for pleural effusion and pneumonia.  We haven't lived with this for 14 plus years and she hasn't worked her entire life to be 5 months from retirement so she can go to work and some DOOSCHBAG that has not taken a lick of this seriously can cough the fukk all over her office and kill her.   PERIOD FULL STOP END OF STORY.

Then, multiply that by a lot of tens of millions of people in the same boat, and their family members, and their friends and acquaintances.

No, I don't have any clinicalistic or medicinalology background to deep dive the stats.  Stats are just that, stats.  As usual, the people under all the stats don't matter except for all of the WHAT ABOUT ME I HAVE TO GET OUT OF THE HOUSE crybabies that claim to be super patriots but can't do one godddam thing for their country because it is just. too. hard.

Vastly unprepared, led by incompetents, spurred on by both sides of the same coin media. Our collective answer would appear to be ok enough of this let's just move on as though it didn't happen.   We, as a nation, are a disgrace, from top to bottom.

rct

 

Well, I'm truly sorry that your wife has this condition.  Chronic illness of any sort is horrible and difficult to deal with in many ways.  I hope she gets through all this OK.  Yes, people are very inconsiderate when it come to this kind of thing.  Sadly you have to try to protect yourself from them.  However, all I'm saying is that this shutdown is really harming lots of other innocent people too, up to and including lots of death.  That's a reality too.  You can't just look at one side.

[Black Dog]

10 minutes ago, rct said:

 

0.13% of the population of the planet, 0.919% of coronavirus fatalities on the planet.

4.25% of population of the planet, 23.776% of coronavirus fatalities on the planet.

Which country is doing something terribly wrong?

rct

 

If I calculated the per capita deaths correctly that would be around 10 per 100k for the US and 13 per 100k for Sweden.  That's pretty close to the same.  We did everything.  Put 22 million and climbing out of work, all for about the same outcome?  You continue to refuse to accept that the economic shut down costs lives too.  That is a mistake.

[mihcmac]

I think most of the data is at least a few days old, with the exception of your local town or county data which is usually compiled daily, I think in most areas. My lady has a severe immune disorder and I'm just old, so if we get it the odds are stacked against us. All we can do is the best we can.

['Scales]

35 minutes ago, 'Scales said:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidnikel/2020/04/14/sweden-22-scientists-say-coronavirus-strategy-has-failed-as-deaths-top-1000/#1d651a137b6c

Data - Australia has 63 deaths out of 25 million people. New Zealand has 9 deaths out of 5 million people.

BD did you read the article I linked re Sweeden (per  above quote) ... I'm not sure their numbers are improving.

on the Worldometer stats, comparing the US to Sweeden you data is correct..but you are comparing the 8th worst rate of death against the 9th worst of all nations - if the lockdowns do what they are supposed to then they help facilitate coming out the other side and rebuilding more quickly versus staying mired in it indefinitely...or so the powers that be are suggesting. 

[Black Dog]

23 minutes ago, 'Scales said:

BD did you read the article I linked re Sweeden (per  above quote) ... I'm not sure their numbers are improving.

on the Worldometer stats, comparing the US to Sweeden you data is correct..but you are comparing the 8th worst rate of death against the 9th worst of all nations - if the lockdowns do what they are supposed to then they help facilitate coming out the other side and rebuilding more quickly versus staying mired in it indefinitely...or so the powers that be are suggesting. 

 

Yeah, I read the article.   If you look at the worldometer website you can see that the daily new cases looks it it may have peaked and is dropping.  The daily deaths are going up and down but overall are increasing.  but, the deaths will lag behind new cases by about 2 weeks or so.  In other words, the people dying today got the infection a couple weeks ago.  Maybe more because this infection does tend to drag on a bit and they may have been in the ICU on a vent for a while before they died.  Time will tell.

I'll tell you this, if the lockdown doesn't lift soon, you better hope it worked because we won't have a health care system left.  One of our local health care systems has laid off all of their mid-level providers (Nurse Practitioners and PA's), about half of their nurses and support staff and shut down their walk in clinics indefinitely.  That's happening all over.

['Scales]

yeah I know man, its a bad situation whichever way you look at it. Probably be a whole lot of start, stop, restart, etc once we start unlocking too. No straightforward options really. Unfortunately.

[Black Dog]

Also, it may not be valid to compare the per capita death rates of Sweden to the entire US since we have vast areas with very low population density where there are virtually no cases.   If you compare the per capita deaths rates for New York State and Sweden it's 73.88 for NY and 13.33 for Sweden.  Just for another data point the per capita rate for New Jersey is 39.9.   So I'm not sure Sweden got it all that wrong.

['Scales]

Covid deaths per million in our cities of 5million people (middle ground strategies - health v economy, and controlled with both carrot and stick):

Sydney 3.8

Melbourne 2.5

...and we certainly have had mistakes - for sure we aren't getting it all right (cruise ships, retirement homes etc)

...and its a global economy and brotherhood so believe me, we are cheering for the US, Sweden and everyone else to recover as soon as possible too. Go well.

[rct]

2 hours ago, Black Dog said:

 

Well, I'm truly sorry that your wife has this condition.  Chronic illness of any sort is horrible and difficult to deal with in many ways.  I hope she gets through all this OK.  Yes, people are very inconsiderate when it come to this kind of thing.  Sadly you have to try to protect yourself from them.  However, all I'm saying is that this shutdown is really harming lots of other innocent people too, up to and including lots of death.  That's a reality too.  You can't just look at one side.

 

Thank you and to be very clear:  It is not about my wife.  Sure, that is my deal.  But behind all of the numbers and the seriousness or non-seriousness of it all there are actual, real people that are trying to do stuff just like everyone else.  Everyone else feels great and isn't worried about it and doesn't care. There are 3 or 4 that absolutely have to care for every 10 that don't giveashit.  That's what it's about.

rct

[rct]

2 hours ago, Black Dog said:

 

If I calculated the per capita deaths correctly that would be around 10 per 100k for the US and 13 per 100k for Sweden.  That's pretty close to the same.  We did everything.  Put 22 million and climbing out of work, all for about the same outcome?  You continue to refuse to accept that the economic shut down costs lives too.  That is a mistake.

 

Ok.  Corona is like the flu, where's the outrage during flu season?  Poverty kills every single damn day of the year, where's the outrage?

It is a mistake, as always, to cloak oneself at only the most convenient time.  Those crying loudest about the dreadful effects of poverty don't give one flying goodshit the rest of the year and in fact like to pin the blame for that particular kind of death and misery on a particular party.  Now, it all matters, right?

Like all streets, it all goes both ways.

rct