daveinspain Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 The other day while looking through some posts here I clicked on some links that took me to other guitar manufacturers as well as some of the big box stores. The factories spoke about how many guitars a day they produce. One, that mainly produces acoustics, boasted of manufacturing 500 guitars a day... It wasn't one of the huge guitar makers either. That got me to thinking… Thousands maybe tens of thounds of guitars are being made every day. Is there really that much demand ? Times have changed and I really question if there is as much demand as there are guitars being made everyday. Maybe there is but back in the day when I was a kid there were no video games, computers, smart phones, tablets…etc, to spend your money on and take up your time. So with all the competition thats out there, is the guitar bubble about to burst? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pesh Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 The other day while looking through some posts here I clicked on some links that took me to other guitar manufacturers as well as some of the big box stores. The factories spoke about how many guitars a day they produce. One, that mainly produces acoustics, hosted of manufacturing 500 guitars a day... It wasn't one of the huge guitar makers either. That got me to thinking… Thousands maybe tens of thounds of guitars are being made every day. Is there really that much demand ? Times have changed and I really question if there is as much demand as there are guitars being made everyday. Maybe there is but back in the day when I was a kid there were no video games, computers, smart phones, tablets…etc, to spend your money on and take up your time. So with all the competition thats out there, is the guitar bubble about to burst? I can see what you're thinking; that number does seem extreme. One company making 500 a day?! Plus however many thousands when you combine all of the companies out there. One consideration I had, though, was is this a constant output? Yes they make 500+ a day, but do they do that 5 days a week, 52 weeks a year? They might focus their build to a timebox; 3 months of constant production, and that's your years' supply, or more. I can see a lot of eastern production facilities hiring a huge staff for such output, but on a temporary contract. And are they completely making this number? As in their output at the end of each day is 500 complete, new, fully-functional instruments? Or are they working on, up to 500 a day; 100 on the assembly line, 100 in the paint shop, etc. Just some random thoughts on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daveinspain Posted September 3, 2015 Author Share Posted September 3, 2015 I believe Gibson, as well as Fender, make a lot more than 500 per day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rct Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 I believe Gibson, as well as Fender, make a lot more than 500 per day... I haven't been to Gibson, but I've been to Fender in 2013 and CFMartin last century. Fender certainly doesn't make that many. They won't tell you their numbers directly. When this factory was finished with the paint shop and stuff they said they were capable of making 25000 guitars a year in CA, and that's less than 70 guitars a day every day. Add same for Mexico and you still are under 200 a day. You can just hang around in there for a few hours and see that if the day we were there was an average day they don't get close to even the 70 daily number. They also suffer from Emergencyitis. The guy normally making Teles had been pressed into service making, a quote from me to him, "...more Yngwie necks than you will ever sell in our lifetimes...", which he agreed with and laughed, but you do what they say to do. They are prone to change it up right in the middle something. CFMartin was a whole nother world, and our time there was like, 12 hours hanging around and smokin and jokin with them guys, including CFMIV. It was a great day. I do not believe, at that time, they could get half that 70 daily, it just takes to long to make each one, and their system was fairly rigid, not as flappable as Fenders was when we were there. I could be entirely wrong, but I do not think either of those private companies is talking, and I haven't seen the Martin guy in a very long time. Next time I see one I will ask. rct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
charlie brown Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Well, they have to keep up with the demand of persons wanting 5, 20, 300, 3000 guitars, themselves. So, we drive that demand, realistic or not. How many of us, here (including myself) really "need," or even play, regularly, all the many guitars we own? I question my own "sanity," and real motivations behind acquiring so many guitars, quite often, anymore. Is it that we need them, or just covet them, to feed our insecurities, and/or "lust," if you like? LOL Who knows?! Getting a new (or, new to us) guitar "feels good," at least for awhile. We like looking at them, and playing them. But, I think most of us have a "favorite," that we play the most, and most often, while the other's languish in their cases, or gig bags. And, from a purposeful, and even a planetary resource aspect, that's truly wasteful! So, maybe the real question is...is the Glut a result of "need," or Greed?! CB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pesh Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Indeed; a touring artist or band might go and purchase a dozen guitars; electrics, basses and acoustics. So yeah it's easy to see that the demand is definitely driven; when I think about it I can't see these companies investing that much for nowt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IanHenry Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 I understand the point Dave's making, because I've often wondered about the same thing, at when do we reach saturation point? If you consider all the second hand guitars on the market there's a phenomenal amount floating around out there. Also, as mentioned kids don't play guitar anymore, or very few. I was at my sisters house the other day and she told me that her daughter (She's 11-12) rarely comes out from her bedroom. When I asked what she does in there all day I was told "playing with her mates". It turns out "playing with her mates" means playing computer games together on line, the kids don't go out, the mates only live around the corner, but their all in their own bedrooms "playing". I don't think this is a very healthy way for kids to be. Who's going to want all those guitars in the future, a guitars not like a car or any other piece of electrical equipment, it never really goes out of date or becomes obsolete. Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
'Scales Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 couple of thoughts... The manufacturers are businesses and will be well aware of the cost of working capital - unnecessary inventory is a cancer for business profitability (and in smaller companies for viability) and to have to then have a fire sale then impacts capability to sell future stock at full price - kind of self perpetuating mess. They will be monitoring demand closely and producing accordingly - the early release of 2016 Gibsons probably does not mean they have warehouses bulging with unsold '15s, but rather that they saw what was happening early and got the hell out of them asap. Guitars, as a fairly simple to learn (enough to strum and singalong) and reasonably portable instrument have a fair opportunity to be(come) household commodities so the potential marketplace is massive. much like (generalising) every kid gets a bike or 3 as they grow up, but grow out of them, or that many/most men will own a suit and hardly ever wear it, people in some countries buy guns but hopefully never have to defend themselves, etc, - many people can rationalise having a guitar kicking round the house that occasionally someone picks up when the mood takes them - especially at todays (MIC) prices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rct Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 couple of thoughts... The manufacturers are businesses and will be well aware of the cost of working capital - unnecessary inventory is a cancer for business profitability (and in smaller companies for viability) and to have to then have a fire sale then impacts capability to sell future stock at full price - kind of self perpetuating mess. They will be monitoring demand closely and producing accordingly - the early release of 2016 Gibsons probably does not mean they have warehouses bulging with unsold '15s, but rather that they saw what was happening early and got the hell out of them asap. Guitars, as a fairly simple to learn (enough to strum and singalong) and reasonably portable instrument have a fair opportunity to be(come) household commodities so the potential marketplace is massive. much like (generalising) every kid gets a bike or 3 as they grow up, but grow out of them, or that many/most men will own a suit and hardly ever wear it, people in some countries buy guns but hopefully never have to defend themselves, etc, - many people can rationalise having a guitar kicking round the house that occasionally someone picks up when the mood takes them - especially at todays (MIC) prices. Yes. Many of us come from a time of two kinds of guitars: the one you started on and then real guitars, which were Fender, Gibson, and Martin. There was literally no middle ground at all, you either spent a little and got a little or you spent a lot and got the same thing EC was using. The companies overseas expanded out into their own models and not just copies, and they got better at it while keeping the prices down. FMIC moved it to Mexico, got the prices down and kept the guitars good while Gibson finally spooned with Epiphone to give them some of the cred to go with the pretty good guitars they were making for the money. After that, every house could have one, especially as big box retail started taking off. You can spend a night at my house and not know I play the guitar. I've been in hundreds of houses and seen all kinds just sitting on stands, some with dust on them as though never played. Every body has one or two it seems. rct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dennis G Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 I haven't been to Gibson, but I've been to Fender I took the Fender tour a few years ago too. Our guy mentioned that they (Corona) turn out in the neighborhood of 800 guitars per week. That doesn't include the MIM's. I read somewhere that Gibby says they put out near 1200 per week. Now add in all of the other mfgrs like Epi, Gretsch, PRS, et al, AND then add the acoustic guys (not to mention the "used" market) and it comes to one hell of a lot of guitars. I remember thinking to myself during the tour "who in the hell is buying all of these things?" I've been playing for over 50 years, own 20 guitars, and have probably gone through at least another 12-15 during that time frame. Again, I ask myself, to Dave's point "Who in the hell is buying all of these things?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
surfpup Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 After that, every house could have one... And I bet houses most do. Seems like everyone I know either plays guitar or at least has attempted to do so at some point (or would like to at some point). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dennis G Posted September 3, 2015 Share Posted September 3, 2015 Seems like everyone I know either plays guitar or at least has attempted to do so at some point (or would like to at some point). Funny you mention that. Over the years I've gotten two reactions: 1 - "Wow, you play guitar?" 2 - "Yeah", I tried that, just couldn't get into it" (or another reasonable excuse) It may run in the family, since one of my uncles played banjo and mandolin, me and my younger brother play stringed instruments, and some of my kids and grands are into guitars and drums. And the Mrs. toys with keyboards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kidblast Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 One, that mainly produces acoustics, boasted of manufacturing 500 guitars a day I don't think I'd have any interest in one of "those"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silvercrow Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 They also suffer from Emergencyitis. The guy normally making Teles had been pressed into service making, a quote from me to him, "...more Yngwie necks than you will ever sell in our lifetimes...", which he agreed with and laughed, but you do what they say to do. They are prone to change it up right in the middle something. rct Very interesting; seems they haven't strayed far from the days when Leo roamed the plant! I've read in two Fender Bio books that Leo was a perpetual tinkerer- one of his close associates (Fullerton, can't remember?) said "Leo would come in with an idea. And boy, it didn't matter what you were working on. You dropped that and started a "new" project!" Particularly interesting since Leo sold early on and there were, what, at least two ownership transfers since then? (CBS and then the ownership transfer / buyout after the late 70s / early 80 debacle...) Brian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starpeve Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 I can see what you're thinking; that number does seem extreme. One company making 500 a day?! Plus however many thousands when you combine all of the companies out there. One consideration I had, though, was is this a constant output? Yes they make 500+ a day, but do they do that 5 days a week, 52 weeks a year? They might focus their build to a timebox; 3 months of constant production, and that's your years' supply, or more. I can see a lot of eastern production facilities hiring a huge staff for such output, but on a temporary contract. And are they completely making this number? As in their output at the end of each day is 500 complete, new, fully-functional instruments? Or are they working on, up to 500 a day; 100 on the assembly line, 100 in the paint shop, etc. Just some random thoughts on it. And I wonder how many guitars die on a daily basis worldwide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starpeve Posted September 4, 2015 Share Posted September 4, 2015 That title sounds almost like a good collective noun for a bunch of guitars- ' A Gluttony of Guitars' ! Nice one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olie Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 That title sounds almost like a good collective noun for a bunch of guitars- ' A Gluttony of Guitars' ! Nice one! Like a murder of crows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Starpeve Posted September 5, 2015 Share Posted September 5, 2015 Like a murder of crows? Yeah! Or a Gaggle of Geese, a Parliment of Owls, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LarryUK Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 500 a day? That's just for Joe Bonamassa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stein Posted September 6, 2015 Share Posted September 6, 2015 I think it's actually a good question. At some point, the "new" market has to compete with the "used" market. At some point, there are enough, say, LP's, to satisfy, and if there is enough of them out there, there is enough being sold used that anyone could easily get one. So, the new prices have to be close enough that people will still buy them. I think the arch-top market is kinda there now. Gibson can't really make them in any numbers because it's pretty easy to find many of them for like 2k or whatever. They can't build them for as cheap as they are selling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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