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Covid19 How many in your state or country?

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Well that particular article is from Bloomberg which is a financial publication, not medical.  And the author is a journalist.  Slightly more informed than Cosmo on the subject, but golly gee I wonder if a zillionaire like Bloomberg wants the slaves, er employees to go back to work.  Poor guy probably hasn't had "massage therapy" in a couple of months. 

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3 hours ago, gdecant1 said:

At this time we don't know enough about this virus  to even think about  herd immunity even if it was an option!

Plan, approach, course of action, way to go, in this context they mean the same thing.  

Please stop telling people that this is a very, very mild illness  in healthy young people. Even the news media stopped telling that lie. I think it was BBP's  son, my daughter, my son in law and thousands of others would be more than happy to argue this point with you.

No misunderstanding. You are advocating we develop a plan (you did say plan this time) for herd immunity  without knowing if it would actually work yet only this time your saying only do it to the young and healthy.

 

Actually, herd immunity is proven science.  All this lock down stuff is not.  It's never been done before.

The last numbers I've seen for the US were that the number of people less than 25 years age who have died from this virus is less than 100.   The number of people less than 45 that have died is less than 1000.  It starts to go up after 60.   And the vast majority of them had significant underlying health conditions.   It is absolutely not a "lie" that young healthy people  don't get very sick from this.  It's a fact.

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11 hours ago, ghost_of_fl said:

So as a medical professional, do you agree with Dr. Fauci (the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases)?  Or do you feel you are more informed on that particular subject than Dr. Fauci?  

 

Agree with him about what?

He's made a few big mistakes in this.  First he said this was not going to be a problem for us in the US, remember that?  Then he said we shouldn't wear masks because they would make things worse.  Now he thinks everyone should wear a mask.   Then they asked him when we should re-open to which he said when there are no new cases.  Really?  None?  When is that going to happen?  Then he said that we could lift the shutdown when we have a vaccine.  I was reading about the '17-'18 Flu season and I saw an interesting number.  CDC says that around 60,000 people died from Flu that year.  They estimated that around 5000 lives were saved by the Flu vaccine.  That's not very impressive.  The point is everyone keeps talking about the vaccine that we don't have, that we don't know effectiveness of, that's going to save us all.

He's obviously a smart guy but disaster preparedness is apparently not his thing.

Him, Redfield (CDC), et al, were caught flat footed on this.   Why did we have no PPE  stockpile?  Why didn't we have a plan in advance for a respiratory virus pandemic?  Everyone knew we would have one, I mean another one.   NIH, CDC and FEMA should have had all that worked out in advance instead of the Keystone Cop approach.

Other than that I agree with him completely.

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19 minutes ago, Black Dog said:

 

So .... You do indeed feel you are more informed on the subject of preventing the spread of Infectious Diseases than the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases?   Wow, cool. 

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Black Dog: but do we know enough about this group of viruses to implement herd immunity as a strategy? If not, gdecant has a good point. 

Gdecant: I understand you've had this affect you personally. Don't mistake Black Dog's at times seemingly detached style here for arrogance. It comes w/ the territory in medicine, where you'd go crazy (and irrational, which causes irreparable damage) if you didn't adopt a helicopter perspective. 

Hope I didn't offend anyone. If I did, I hope I did it thoroughly. 

I think maybe we should grant this thread amnesty from the no-politics rule. A lot of people are going through a lot, and there's a lot of fear. Let's allow venting, and let's give each other space to vent. 

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3 minutes ago, ghost_of_fl said:

So .... You do indeed feel you are more informed on the subject of preventing the spread of Infectious Diseases than the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases?   Wow, cool. 

You'll find that frontline physicians often know a lot more than deskboard big wigs. 

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11 minutes ago, Black Dog said:

hen he said we shouldn't wear masks because they would make things worse.  Now he thinks everyone should wear a mask.

That's where I stopped listening to him as far as this. It was advice on par with cow dung for flesh wounds. And I'm pretty sure he knew.

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33 minutes ago, Black Dog said:

 

Actually, herd immunity is proven science.  All this lock down stuff is not.  It's never been done before.

The last numbers I've seen for the US were that the number of people less than 25 years age who have died from this virus is less than 100.   The number of people less than 45 that have died is less than 1000.  It starts to go up after 60.   And the vast majority of them had significant underlying health conditions.   It is absolutely not a "lie" that young healthy people  don't get very sick from this.  It's a fact.

And only THREE children have died from this virus.  In three months.  And yet some politicians are calling to keep the K-12 schools closed in the Fall.  

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8 minutes ago, Pinch said:

Black Dog: but do we know enough about this group of viruses to implement herd immunity as a strategy? If not, gdecant has a good point. 

Gdecant: I understand you've had this affect you personally. Don't mistake Black Dog's at times seemingly detached style here for arrogance. It comes w/ the territory in medicine, where you'd go crazy (and irrational, which causes irreparable damage) if you didn't adopt a helicopter perspective. 

Hope I didn't offend anyone. If I did, I hope I did it thoroughly. 

I think maybe we should grant this thread amnesty from the no-politics rule. A lot of people are going through a lot, and there's a lot of fear. Let's allow venting, and let's give each other space to vent. 

 Several excellent point.   

I may steal your  line:  "Hope I didn't offend anyone. If I did, I hope I did it thoroughly."      Will probably need it before the day is out. 

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11 minutes ago, Pinch said:

Black Dog: but do we know enough about this group of viruses to implement herd immunity as a strategy? If not, gdecant has a good point. 

 

Yes, there is evidence of immunity to the coronavirus family broadly.  There is also empirical evidence going on right now in that where there are outbreaks, people do not appear to be getting infected again.

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2 minutes ago, Black Dog said:

 

Yes, there is evidence of immunity to the coronavirus family broadly.  There is also empirical evidence going on right now in that where there are outbreaks, people do not appear to be getting infected again.

I meant pathogenesis and this, that and the other rather than antibody immunity.

Edited by Pinch

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herd immunity assumes loss while attaining -   LOSS OF LIFE

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14 minutes ago, Pinch said:

I meant pathogenesis and this, that and the other rather than antibody immunity.

 

I'm not sure what you mean.  But, the presence of measurable antibodies should offer some level of protection from future infection for some period of time.  Don't forget that the virus is here and won't go away any time soon, if ever.  Remember we had H1N1 in 2009 and it sickened and killed a lot of people.  We still have it.  It still circulates but our immune systems are better prepared for it so it makes us less sick now.

With SARS and MERS (two other coronaviruses), they both appeared, caused infections and then "disappeared", or at least don't cause any "noticable" infections/outbreaks anymore.

Edited by Black Dog

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35 minutes ago, Pinch said:

You'll find that frontline physicians often know a lot more than deskboard big wigs. 

You.... you do realize that long before you become the director of anything, you ARE that "frontline" physician?  

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39 minutes ago, ghost_of_fl said:

So .... You do indeed feel you are more informed on the subject of preventing the spread of Infectious Diseases than the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases?   Wow, cool. 

 

So as professionals when we see someone make mistakes we shouldn't point them out, acknowledge them?  Especially in science and medicine?  We should just look the other way?  Don't dare question authority?  Great idea.

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30 minutes ago, fortyearspickn said:

some politicians are calling to keep the K-12 schools closed in the Fall.  

Because a lot of those K-12 students go stay with Gramma and/or Grampa after school so mom and dad can work. 

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1 minute ago, Black Dog said:

 

So as professionals when we see someone make mistakes we shouldn't point them out, acknowledge them?  Especially in science and medicine?  We should just look the other way?  Don't dare question authority?  Great idea.

It's not personal.  You're some random dude on the Internet.   It makes sense that everyone isn't hanging on your every word like it's gospel.  Sorry but I will go with what the experts say, not rando-dude. 

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1 minute ago, ghost_of_fl said:

Because a lot of those K-12 students go stay with Gramma and/or Grampa after school so mom and dad can work. 

 

You know, there are ways to address that and all the other issues without a permanent shelter in place order.   Or, maybe you don't.

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Just now, ghost_of_fl said:

How?   

 

OK.  Are you ready?  This is really complicated so pay attention and take notes. 

Have someone else do it.

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Ok.  Parents live in Puerto Rico.  Child ONLY stays with grandparents when they are in the US.  Where do those children sleep at night? 

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18 minutes ago, ghost_of_fl said:

You.... you do realize that long before you become the director of anything, you ARE that "frontline" physician?  

Yes.

But how do I trust a supposed contagion expert who tells people surgical masks are useless when they're not,  and centuries of research would show that they at least with a very high probability protects you when used correctly? And then he changes his tune. 

I understand he was probably trying to cease hoarding. Me, I have a saying: lie to me once as an official, and I'll never listen to you again. 

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2 minutes ago, Pinch said:

How do I trust a supposed contagion expert who tells people surgical masks are useless when they're not,  and centuries of research would show that they at least with a very high probability protects you when used correctly? And then he changes his tune. 

It's a fluid situation.  They didn't have data to support using masks.  Now they do. 

Why not just "play it safe"?   Because there are only so many masks out there and the medical staff needed them more urgently. 

Edited by ghost_of_fl

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25 minutes ago, ghost_of_fl said:

It's a fluid situation.  They didn't have data to support using masks.  Now they do. 

Why not just "play it safe"?   Because there are only so many masks out there and the medical staff needed them more urgently. 

There was nothing to indicate the barrier method of protection wouldn't work. 

As evidenced by the urgent need of the medical staff of masks that were supposedly useless. Come on. 

Edited by Pinch
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27 minutes ago, ghost_of_fl said:

It's not personal.  You're some random dude on the Internet.   It makes sense that everyone isn't hanging on your every word like it's gospel.  Sorry but I will go with what the experts say, not rando-dude. 

 

Which is precisely why I have posted numerous links to information from physicians and scientists from Stanford, Harvard and other less-rando-dude practicing physicians who are saying the same thing that I am saying.

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